Compendium › Rebel Contraire › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 23 trades in period

-16.85%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,713.91
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$9,277.39
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:23:19

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 10.9

30-Day Momentum

6
-4.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.0 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,277.39
Current Value
$7,713.91
Period P&L
$-1,563.48
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
11 / 12
Best Trade
+2.42%
Worst Trade
-4.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.77%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$375,669.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,563.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,563.48
Gross Return
-16.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,277.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:50pm ET $71.10 130 $9,243.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET $68.95 130 $8,963.50 $8,997.89 $-279.50
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $70.08 128 $8,970.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 1:10pm ET $67.96 128 $8,698.88 $8,726.53 $-271.36
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 1:20pm ET $64.82 134 $8,685.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET $66.22 134 $8,873.48 $8,914.13 +$187.60
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:15pm ET $69.25 128 $8,864.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $66.05 128 $8,454.40 $8,504.53 $-409.60
(-4.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET $69.24 122 $8,447.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET $67.03 122 $8,177.66 $8,234.91 $-269.62
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET $70.72 116 $8,203.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 10:30am ET $68.54 116 $7,950.64 $7,982.03 $-252.88
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET $69.09 115 $7,945.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET $70.76 115 $8,137.97 $8,174.66 +$192.63
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:00am ET $74.12 110 $8,153.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $75.65 110 $8,321.50 $8,342.96 +$168.30
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $75.90 109 $8,273.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:50am ET $77.42 109 $8,438.78 $8,508.64 +$165.68
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:45pm ET $79.90 106 $8,469.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:40pm ET $77.31 106 $8,194.86 $8,234.10 $-274.54
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $77.96 105 $8,185.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $75.53 105 $7,930.65 $7,978.95 $-255.15
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $76.93 103 $7,923.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $74.14 103 $7,636.42 $7,691.58 $-287.37
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:25pm ET $75.44 101 $7,619.44 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:35am ET $77.06 101 $7,783.06 $7,855.20 +$163.62
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
14 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:40am ET $77.78 100 $7,778.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:25pm ET $79.37 100 $7,937.00 $8,014.20 +$159.00
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
15 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 3:25pm ET $77.41 103 $7,973.23 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:00am ET $79.00 103 $8,137.00 $8,177.97 +$163.77
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
16 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:30am ET $78.26 104 $8,139.04 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $75.88 104 $7,891.52 $7,930.45 $-247.52
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
17 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $74.73 106 $7,921.38 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $76.30 106 $8,087.80 $8,096.87 +$166.42
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
18 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 1:55pm ET $77.16 104 $8,024.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $77.95 104 $8,106.80 $8,179.03 +$82.16
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:55pm ET $80.75 101 $8,156.25 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 12:10pm ET $82.38 101 $8,319.88 $8,342.65 +$163.62
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $81.13 102 $8,275.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $78.48 102 $8,005.16 $8,072.55 $-270.10
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:40am ET $80.43 100 $8,043.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $77.95 100 $7,795.00 $7,824.55 $-248.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:55am ET $75.82 103 $7,809.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:55am ET $73.27 103 $7,546.81 $7,561.90 $-262.65
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:10pm ET $74.38 101 $7,512.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:10am ET $75.89 101 $7,664.39 $7,713.91 +$152.01
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,713.91
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,286.09
Total Return: -22.86%
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