ARM Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 40 trades in period
+26.62%
Last 3 Months Return
$17,520.40
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$13,836.48
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.2/35
Total Return
15.6/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
38.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 37.9
30-Day Momentum
14
-3.7%
30d Return
54%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.2
Conf: 0.95×
Declining (-23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,836.48
Current Value
$17,520.40
Period P&L
$3,683.93
Max Drawdown
-36.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
27 /
13
Best Trade
+7.24%
Worst Trade
-7.31%
Avg Trade Return
+0.66%
Avg Hold Time
17.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,295,381.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,683.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,683.93
Gross Return
+26.62%
Net Return (after fees)
+26.62%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,836.48 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $136.52 | 101 | $13,788.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 1:40pm ET | $139.68 | 101 | $14,108.18 | $14,156.13 |
+$319.66 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $159.61 | 88 | $14,045.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:40pm ET | $154.63 | 88 | $13,607.44 | $13,717.88 |
$-438.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $142.37 | 96 | $13,667.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $137.87 | 96 | $13,235.76 | $13,286.12 |
$-431.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 2:20pm ET | $148.70 | 89 | $13,234.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.98 | 89 | $13,882.22 | $13,933.95 |
+$647.83 (+4.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $148.18 | 94 | $13,929.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $151.18 | 94 | $14,211.39 | $14,215.95 |
+$282.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 12:05pm ET | $147.59 | 96 | $14,168.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $141.91 | 96 | $13,623.84 | $13,671.63 |
$-544.32 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $146.95 | 93 | $13,665.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $149.93 | 93 | $13,943.49 | $13,949.23 |
+$277.60 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 1:55pm ET | $148.40 | 93 | $13,801.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.38 | 93 | $14,171.80 | $14,319.84 |
+$370.61 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.72 | 96 | $14,181.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $150.90 | 96 | $14,486.73 | $14,625.45 |
+$305.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $158.18 | 92 | $14,552.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $161.41 | 92 | $14,849.74 | $14,922.63 |
+$297.18 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $158.04 | 94 | $14,855.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $162.93 | 94 | $15,315.42 | $15,382.29 |
+$459.66 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $164.37 | 93 | $15,286.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $167.86 | 93 | $15,610.98 | $15,706.86 |
+$324.57 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $173.88 | 90 | $15,649.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.75 | 90 | $16,177.50 | $16,235.16 |
+$528.30 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $206.97 | 78 | $16,143.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.94 | 78 | $17,311.44 | $17,402.94 |
+$1,167.78 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $217.30 | 80 | $17,384.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.41 | 80 | $16,112.94 | $16,131.88 |
$-1,271.06 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.07 | 82 | $16,077.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $200.95 | 82 | $16,477.89 | $16,532.02 |
+$400.14 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:25am ET | $209.48 | 78 | $16,339.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 12:05pm ET | $214.01 | 78 | $16,692.39 | $16,885.13 |
+$353.11 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:30pm ET | $212.68 | 79 | $16,801.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $205.34 | 79 | $16,221.86 | $16,305.26 |
$-579.87 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $206.19 | 79 | $16,289.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $211.12 | 79 | $16,678.09 | $16,694.22 |
+$388.96 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $237.08 | 70 | $16,595.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.65 | 70 | $15,585.15 | $15,683.77 |
$-1,010.45 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $218.39 | 71 | $15,505.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $211.62 | 71 | $15,025.02 | $15,203.10 |
$-480.67 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $210.88 | 72 | $15,183.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $216.00 | 72 | $15,552.00 | $15,571.52 |
+$368.42 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $216.84 | 71 | $15,395.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 2:30pm ET | $221.29 | 71 | $15,711.59 | $15,887.47 |
+$315.95 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 2:45pm ET | $223.13 | 71 | $15,842.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $228.06 | 71 | $16,192.26 | $16,237.15 |
+$349.68 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $206.10 | 78 | $16,075.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 12:55pm ET | $210.42 | 78 | $16,412.76 | $16,574.50 |
+$337.35 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 1:50pm ET | $224.16 | 73 | $16,363.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.38 | 73 | $17,547.63 | $17,758.45 |
+$1,183.95 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $276.89 | 64 | $17,720.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $283.80 | 64 | $18,163.20 | $18,200.83 |
+$442.38 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 11:15am ET | $310.76 | 58 | $18,024.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:00am ET | $317.93 | 58 | $18,439.94 | $18,616.69 |
+$415.86 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $305.24 | 60 | $18,314.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.99 | 60 | $19,079.40 | $19,381.39 |
+$764.70 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $350.37 | 55 | $19,270.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $337.65 | 55 | $18,570.75 | $18,681.79 |
$-699.60 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 11:45am ET | $418.55 | 44 | $18,416.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $401.13 | 44 | $17,649.72 | $17,915.11 |
$-766.68 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $380.16 | 47 | $17,867.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $389.61 | 47 | $18,311.44 | $18,359.03 |
+$443.92 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $368.93 | 49 | $18,077.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $376.81 | 49 | $18,463.65 | $18,745.11 |
+$386.08 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $358.13 | 52 | $18,622.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:40pm ET | $346.93 | 52 | $18,040.36 | $18,162.70 |
$-582.41 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $349.07 | 52 | $18,151.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $336.98 | 52 | $17,523.22 | $17,534.28 |
$-628.42 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $321.28 | 54 | $17,349.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $310.39 | 54 | $16,761.33 | $16,946.49 |
$-587.79 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 12:30pm ET | $327.44 | 51 | $16,699.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $334.28 | 51 | $17,048.43 | $17,295.48 |
+$348.99 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:15pm ET | $383.29 | 45 | $17,248.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $393.37 | 45 | $17,701.65 | $17,749.08 |
+$453.60 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $407.36 | 43 | $17,516.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $416.00 | 43 | $17,888.00 | $18,120.60 |
+$371.52 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 11:25am ET | $443.65 | 40 | $17,746.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 12:45pm ET | $428.65 | 40 | $17,146.00 | $17,520.40 |
$-600.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,520.40
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,520.40
Total Return:
+75.20%