Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:19:28

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
58.1 neutral
20d Trend
+7.6%
5d Trend
-0.6%
EMA20 Dist
+2.4%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
80%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
9.8/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 25.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 25.2

30-Day Momentum

3
-6.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,026.71
Current Value
$11,430.44
Period P&L
$403.75
Max Drawdown
-20.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
15 / 8
Best Trade
+3.10%
Worst Trade
-5.76%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$540,291.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$403.75
Net P&L (after fees)
$403.75
Gross Return
+3.66%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,026.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:30am ET $126.10 87 $10,970.27
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $128.99 87 $11,222.13 $11,278.56 +$251.87
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET $129.32 87 $11,250.84
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 11:25am ET $132.18 87 $11,499.66 $11,527.38 +$248.82
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:00pm ET $133.51 86 $11,482.29
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:20pm ET $128.86 86 $11,081.96 $11,127.05 $-400.33
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:55am ET $132.69 83 $11,013.27
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:55am ET $132.79 83 $11,021.57 $11,135.35 +$8.30
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:15am ET $123.60 90 $11,124.00
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $127.43 90 $11,468.70 $11,480.05 +$344.70
(+3.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $123.57 92 $11,368.44
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 10:15am ET $119.73 92 $11,015.16 $11,126.77 $-353.28
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 11:45am ET $118.98 93 $11,065.35
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET $121.37 93 $11,287.41 $11,348.83 +$222.06
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:00am ET $113.71 99 $11,257.29
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 2:35pm ET $116.11 99 $11,494.89 $11,586.43 +$237.60
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $117.26 98 $11,491.48
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 2:50pm ET $119.72 98 $11,732.56 $11,827.51 +$241.08
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 3:15pm ET $122.83 96 $11,791.74
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $125.46 96 $12,044.16 $12,079.93 +$252.42
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:50pm ET $120.68 100 $12,068.00
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $124.16 100 $12,416.25 $12,428.18 +$348.25
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET $125.22 99 $12,396.79
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 3:30pm ET $127.82 99 $12,654.18 $12,685.57 +$257.39
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.7h held
13 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $124.63 101 $12,587.63
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $117.45 101 $11,862.45 $11,960.39 $-725.18
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
14 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $115.14 103 $11,859.42
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:35am ET $116.60 103 $12,009.80 $12,110.77 +$150.38
(+1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $116.49 103 $11,998.47
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $118.84 103 $12,240.52 $12,352.82 +$242.05
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
16 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $121.59 101 $12,280.59
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:10am ET $124.08 101 $12,532.58 $12,604.82 +$252.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
17 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:35am ET $124.30 101 $12,554.30
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:50pm ET $120.39 101 $12,159.89 $12,210.41 $-394.41
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
18 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 3:55pm ET $120.49 101 $12,169.49
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 1:30pm ET $116.83 101 $11,799.83 $11,840.75 $-369.66
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
19 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 1:30pm ET $116.03 102 $11,835.06
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $115.62 102 $11,793.24 $11,798.93 $-41.82
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 2:55pm ET $117.23 100 $11,723.00
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $118.36 100 $11,836.00 $11,911.93 +$113.00
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:50am ET $116.93 101 $11,809.93
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET $119.50 101 $12,069.50 $12,171.50 +$259.57
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET $119.10 102 $12,148.20
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $115.52 102 $11,783.04 $11,806.34 $-365.16
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6h held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:15am ET $111.41 105 $11,698.05
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:15am ET $107.83 105 $11,322.15 $11,430.44 $-375.90
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,430.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,430.44
Total Return: +14.30%
Back to Rebel Contraire