Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:18:02

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
1.4/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 40.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 40.0

30-Day Momentum

9
-13.9%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.87×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,082.47
Current Value
$13,882.45
Period P&L
$-1,199.97
Max Drawdown
-11.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
14 / 11
Best Trade
+3.64%
Worst Trade
-5.73%
Avg Trade Return
-0.29%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$769,157.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,199.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,199.97
Gross Return
-7.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.96%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $15,082.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $245.41 61 $14,970.01
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $237.80 61 $14,505.80 $14,618.21 $-464.21
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $237.63 61 $14,495.43
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $242.43 61 $14,788.53 $14,911.31 +$293.10
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $242.32 61 $14,781.52
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 2:50pm ET $247.32 61 $15,086.82 $15,216.61 +$305.30
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET $242.69 62 $15,046.61
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $248.95 62 $15,434.90 $15,604.90 +$388.29
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $236.43 66 $15,604.38
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:40am ET $241.20 66 $15,918.87 $15,919.39 +$314.49
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:25am ET $243.82 65 $15,848.30
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $249.01 65 $16,185.65 $16,256.74 +$337.35
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:45am ET $252.23 64 $16,142.66
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:55am ET $258.02 64 $16,513.28 $16,627.36 +$370.62
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET $255.86 64 $16,375.04
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 2:05pm ET $247.95 64 $15,868.80 $16,121.12 $-506.24
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 2:50pm ET $230.88 69 $15,930.38
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $232.34 69 $16,031.12 $16,221.86 +$100.74
(+0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $227.88 71 $16,179.13
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $235.00 71 $16,685.00 $16,727.74 +$505.88
(+3.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held
11 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:40am ET $231.74 72 $16,685.28
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 1:55pm ET $224.71 72 $16,179.12 $16,221.58 $-506.16
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
12 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $230.18 70 $16,112.60
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 1:20pm ET $223.00 70 $15,610.00 $15,718.98 $-502.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
13 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 1:25pm ET $220.01 71 $15,620.71
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 10:20am ET $213.36 71 $15,148.56 $15,246.83 $-472.15
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
14 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 10:40am ET $218.29 69 $15,062.01
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 1:45pm ET $223.00 69 $15,387.00 $15,571.82 +$324.99
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
15 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 3:20pm ET $223.59 69 $15,427.37
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 69 $15,988.68 $16,133.13 +$561.31
(+3.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
16 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:30am ET $258.15 62 $16,005.30
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $247.18 62 $15,325.31 $15,453.14 $-679.99
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
17 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $256.09 60 $15,365.40
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:40am ET $262.73 60 $15,763.80 $15,851.54 +$398.40
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
18 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:45am ET $284.84 55 $15,666.20
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:15am ET $291.28 55 $16,020.53 $16,205.87 +$354.33
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
30m held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $324.85 49 $15,917.78
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $313.34 49 $15,353.66 $15,641.75 $-564.12
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET $310.09 50 $15,504.46
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $298.06 50 $14,903.00 $15,040.29 $-601.46
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET $283.36 53 $15,018.19
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $274.73 53 $14,560.69 $14,582.79 $-457.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET $275.11 53 $14,580.83
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $266.50 53 $14,124.50 $14,126.46 $-456.33
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET $269.16 52 $13,996.32
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 11:15am ET $274.69 52 $14,283.88 $14,414.02 +$287.56
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:10pm ET $268.49 53 $14,229.98
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:45am ET $274.26 53 $14,535.78 $14,719.82 +$305.80
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:25am ET $265.68 55 $14,612.67
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET $250.46 55 $13,775.30 $13,882.45 $-837.37
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,882.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,882.45
Total Return: +38.82%
Back to Rebel Contraire