Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:17:47

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 11.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.1

30-Day Momentum

4
-6.2%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,478.03
Current Value
$9,129.27
Period P&L
$-2,348.80
Max Drawdown
-39.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.44

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
19
Winners / Losers
5 / 14
Best Trade
+3.40%
Worst Trade
-3.98%
Avg Trade Return
-1.09%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$385,679.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,348.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,348.80
Gross Return
-20.46%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 19 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,478.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET $477.03 23 $10,971.69
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $488.14 23 $11,227.33 $11,546.26 +$255.64
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $473.75 24 $11,370.00
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $459.52 24 $11,028.60 $11,204.86 $-341.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET $454.74 24 $10,913.76
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $465.48 24 $11,171.45 $11,462.55 +$257.69
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $455.33 25 $11,383.25
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $451.01 25 $11,275.13 $11,354.43 $-108.12
(-0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:45am ET $465.77 24 $11,178.36
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $451.21 24 $10,829.16 $11,005.23 $-349.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET $452.21 24 $10,853.16
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $467.54 24 $11,220.84 $11,372.91 +$367.68
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:25am ET $470.63 24 $11,295.12
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:05am ET $456.14 24 $10,947.48 $11,025.27 $-347.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 11:00am ET $470.36 23 $10,818.39
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:15pm ET $456.21 23 $10,492.83 $10,699.71 $-325.56
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:00pm ET $485.32 22 $10,677.04
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET $473.82 22 $10,424.04 $10,446.71 $-253.00
(-2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:20pm ET $463.93 22 $10,206.57
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $456.98 22 $10,053.56 $10,293.70 $-153.01
(-1.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
11 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:20am ET $456.09 22 $10,033.98
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $444.50 22 $9,779.00 $10,038.72 $-254.98
(-2.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $434.32 23 $9,989.36
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 3:10pm ET $420.89 23 $9,680.47 $9,729.83 $-308.89
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
13 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $446.11 21 $9,368.31
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $441.03 21 $9,261.64 $9,623.16 $-106.67
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
14 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $436.17 22 $9,595.74
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 11:45am ET $422.45 22 $9,293.90 $9,321.32 $-301.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
15 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $423.43 22 $9,315.57
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $406.57 22 $8,944.43 $8,950.18 $-371.14
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET $400.95 22 $8,820.79
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $414.59 22 $9,120.98 $9,250.37 +$300.19
(+3.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:50am ET $422.53 21 $8,873.13
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET $422.37 21 $8,869.77 $9,247.01 $-3.36
(-0.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 10:05am ET $410.57 22 $9,032.58
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:40am ET $419.42 22 $9,227.24 $9,441.67 +$194.66
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 11:10am ET $419.26 22 $9,223.72
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $405.06 22 $8,911.32 $9,129.27 $-312.40
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,129.27
Net Profit/Loss: $-870.73
Total Return: -8.71%
Back to Rebel Contraire