Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:19:49

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.6/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 34.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 33.5

30-Day Momentum

2
-2.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,022.70
Current Value
$12,982.34
Period P&L
$-1,040.39
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
10 / 8
Best Trade
+2.78%
Worst Trade
-4.78%
Avg Trade Return
-0.27%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$483,172.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,040.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,040.39
Gross Return
-7.42%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.42%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,022.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 11:20am ET $489.85 27 $13,225.95
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $503.47 27 $13,593.69 $14,079.70 +$367.74
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $497.10 28 $13,918.66
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:45pm ET $481.73 28 $13,488.44 $13,649.48 $-430.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET $493.28 27 $13,318.56
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $493.80 27 $13,332.60 $13,663.52 +$14.04
(+0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET $499.06 27 $13,474.62
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:40am ET $509.49 27 $13,756.36 $13,945.26 +$281.74
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET $499.78 27 $13,494.06
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $512.38 27 $13,834.26 $14,285.46 +$340.20
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 11:20am ET $515.80 27 $13,926.73
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 12:45pm ET $526.33 27 $14,210.91 $14,569.64 +$284.18
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 1:05pm ET $516.12 28 $14,451.36
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:40am ET $500.55 28 $14,015.40 $14,133.68 $-435.96
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $504.89 27 $13,632.03
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET $515.91 27 $13,929.57 $14,431.22 +$297.54
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 1:05pm ET $529.40 27 $14,293.80
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET $504.07 27 $13,609.89 $13,747.31 $-683.91
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
10 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 9:45am ET $502.21 27 $13,559.67
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:45am ET $496.60 27 $13,408.20 $13,595.84 $-151.47
(-1.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:55am ET $499.80 27 $13,494.60
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:55am ET $501.68 27 $13,545.49 $13,646.74 +$50.90
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
12 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:25am ET $494.46 27 $13,350.42
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:25am ET $499.00 27 $13,473.00 $13,769.32 +$122.58
(+0.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:20am ET $506.75 27 $13,682.18
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 10:30am ET $491.52 27 $13,271.04 $13,358.18 $-411.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
14 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 12:15pm ET $498.76 26 $12,967.73
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 12:15pm ET $493.67 26 $12,835.52 $13,225.97 $-132.21
(-1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $494.17 26 $12,848.29
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:15pm ET $492.78 26 $12,812.28 $13,189.96 $-36.01
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $480.79 27 $12,981.33
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET $465.57 27 $12,570.39 $12,779.02 $-410.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:25am ET $485.50 26 $12,623.00
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET $490.22 26 $12,745.72 $12,901.74 +$122.72
(+1.0%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET $488.78 26 $12,708.28
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:25am ET $491.88 26 $12,788.88 $12,982.34 +$80.60
(+0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,982.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,982.34
Total Return: +29.82%
Back to Rebel Contraire