MARA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 40 trades in period
-33.62%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,780.63
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$10,214.26
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
11.3/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 11.2
30-Day Momentum
14
-7.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
16
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,793
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,214.26
Current Value
$6,780.63
Period P&L
$-3,433.69
Max Drawdown
-40.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
17 /
23
Best Trade
+3.23%
Worst Trade
-4.69%
Avg Trade Return
-0.98%
Avg Hold Time
9.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$627,157.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,433.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,433.69
Gross Return
-33.62%
Net Return (after fees)
-33.62%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,214.26 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $8.06 | 1,266 | $10,207.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $7.93 | 1,266 | $10,045.71 | $10,052.27 |
$-162.05 (-1.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $7.76 | 1,296 | $10,050.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $7.49 | 1,296 | $9,700.56 | $9,702.35 |
$-349.92 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 12:30pm ET | $7.72 | 1,255 | $9,694.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:00pm ET | $7.47 | 1,255 | $9,374.85 | $9,382.32 |
$-320.03 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:15pm ET | $7.89 | 1,188 | $9,377.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.07 | 1,188 | $9,587.16 | $9,592.48 |
+$210.16 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $7.95 | 1,206 | $9,587.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:15pm ET | $7.70 | 1,206 | $9,292.23 | $9,297.01 |
$-295.47 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:20pm ET | $7.76 | 1,198 | $9,290.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $7.93 | 1,198 | $9,494.15 | $9,500.67 |
+$203.66 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:05pm ET | $8.73 | 1,087 | $9,494.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.42 | 1,087 | $9,152.54 | $9,158.27 |
$-342.40 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $9.30 | 984 | $9,151.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $9.02 | 984 | $8,875.68 | $8,882.85 |
$-275.42 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.03 | 983 | $8,876.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.66 | 983 | $8,512.78 | $8,519.14 |
$-363.71 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:10pm ET | $9.12 | 934 | $8,518.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $9.31 | 934 | $8,697.50 | $8,698.56 |
+$179.42 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $8.66 | 1,003 | $8,690.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.40 | 1,003 | $8,420.19 | $8,427.75 |
$-270.81 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.06 | 1,046 | $8,425.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.24 | 1,046 | $8,624.27 | $8,626.49 |
+$198.74 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $8.74 | 987 | $8,626.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $8.45 | 987 | $8,345.08 | $8,345.20 |
$-281.29 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 1:15pm ET | $8.56 | 974 | $8,337.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $8.73 | 974 | $8,505.46 | $8,513.31 |
+$168.11 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $9.48 | 897 | $8,508.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $9.19 | 897 | $8,247.91 | $8,253.18 |
$-260.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $9.23 | 894 | $8,250.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $9.42 | 894 | $8,420.76 | $8,422.95 |
+$169.77 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $9.02 | 933 | $8,415.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.64 | 933 | $8,061.12 | $8,068.41 |
$-354.54 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 11:15am ET | $8.85 | 911 | $8,062.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $8.56 | 911 | $7,797.98 | $7,804.04 |
$-264.37 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $8.93 | 873 | $7,795.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.56 | 873 | $7,472.88 | $7,481.03 |
$-323.01 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $8.42 | 888 | $7,476.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $8.14 | 888 | $7,223.88 | $7,227.95 |
$-253.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $8.75 | 826 | $7,227.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.34 | 826 | $6,888.84 | $6,889.29 |
$-338.66 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $7.95 | 866 | $6,889.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:35am ET | $8.13 | 866 | $7,040.58 | $7,040.84 |
+$151.55 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 1:45pm ET | $8.02 | 877 | $7,037.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:30pm ET | $8.19 | 877 | $7,182.63 | $7,185.54 |
+$144.70 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 922 | $7,182.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $7.95 | 922 | $7,334.51 | $7,337.67 |
+$152.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.91 | 823 | $7,337.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.59 | 823 | $7,065.46 | $7,066.08 |
$-271.59 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $9.29 | 760 | $7,060.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $9.50 | 760 | $7,220.00 | $7,225.68 |
+$159.60 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $9.79 | 738 | $7,225.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:55am ET | $9.47 | 738 | $6,985.17 | $6,985.83 |
$-239.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 1:15pm ET | $10.09 | 692 | $6,978.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.35 | 692 | $7,162.13 | $7,169.07 |
+$183.24 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.49 | 683 | $7,168.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $10.16 | 683 | $6,942.69 | $6,943.68 |
$-225.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $10.65 | 651 | $6,933.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $10.91 | 651 | $7,105.66 | $7,116.20 |
+$172.52 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $11.66 | 610 | $7,115.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 610 | $6,895.26 | $6,895.81 |
$-220.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.44 | 602 | $6,889.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.10 | 602 | $6,681.66 | $6,687.58 |
$-208.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $11.76 | 568 | $6,680.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $12.05 | 568 | $6,844.40 | $6,851.39 |
+$163.81 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.55 | 593 | $6,846.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $11.80 | 593 | $6,994.44 | $6,999.64 |
+$148.25 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:55pm ET | $11.23 | 623 | $6,999.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 623 | $6,709.71 | $6,709.95 |
$-289.69 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.65 | 630 | $6,709.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.31 | 630 | $6,492.15 | $6,492.60 |
$-217.35 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.54 | 562 | $6,485.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $11.82 | 562 | $6,645.65 | $6,652.77 |
+$160.17 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $12.13 | 548 | $6,644.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 12:45pm ET | $11.70 | 548 | $6,414.34 | $6,422.61 |
$-230.16 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $11.60 | 553 | $6,417.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.98 | 553 | $6,624.94 | $6,629.99 |
+$207.38 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $12.32 | 538 | $6,628.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $12.60 | 538 | $6,778.75 | $6,780.63 |
+$150.64 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,780.63
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,219.37
Total Return:
-32.19%