MARA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 41 trades in period
-8.12%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,170.45
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$7,803.98
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality
11.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.2
30-Day Momentum
39
+7.0%
30d Return
69%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.2
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$7,803.98
Current Value
$7,170.45
Period P&L
$-633.59
Max Drawdown
-40.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
24 /
17
Best Trade
+7.29%
Worst Trade
-8.10%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
17.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$559,471.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-633.59
Net P&L (after fees)
$-633.59
Gross Return
-8.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,803.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $8.93 | 873 | $7,795.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.56 | 873 | $7,472.88 | $7,481.03 |
$-323.01 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $8.42 | 888 | $7,476.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:35pm ET | $8.14 | 888 | $7,223.88 | $7,227.95 |
$-253.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $8.75 | 826 | $7,227.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.34 | 826 | $6,888.84 | $6,889.29 |
$-338.66 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $7.95 | 866 | $6,889.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:35am ET | $8.13 | 866 | $7,040.58 | $7,040.84 |
+$151.55 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 1:45pm ET | $8.02 | 877 | $7,037.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:30pm ET | $8.19 | 877 | $7,182.63 | $7,185.54 |
+$144.70 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 922 | $7,182.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $7.95 | 922 | $7,334.51 | $7,337.67 |
+$152.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.91 | 823 | $7,337.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.59 | 823 | $7,065.46 | $7,066.08 |
$-271.59 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $9.29 | 760 | $7,060.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $9.50 | 760 | $7,220.00 | $7,225.68 |
+$159.60 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $9.79 | 738 | $7,225.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:55am ET | $9.47 | 738 | $6,985.17 | $6,985.83 |
$-239.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 1:15pm ET | $10.09 | 692 | $6,978.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.35 | 692 | $7,162.13 | $7,169.07 |
+$183.24 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.49 | 683 | $7,168.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $10.16 | 683 | $6,942.69 | $6,943.68 |
$-225.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $10.65 | 651 | $6,933.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $10.91 | 651 | $7,105.66 | $7,116.20 |
+$172.52 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $11.66 | 610 | $7,115.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 610 | $6,895.26 | $6,895.81 |
$-220.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $11.44 | 602 | $6,889.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.10 | 602 | $6,681.66 | $6,687.58 |
$-208.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $11.76 | 568 | $6,680.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:05am ET | $12.05 | 568 | $6,844.40 | $6,851.39 |
+$163.81 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.55 | 593 | $6,846.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $11.80 | 593 | $6,994.44 | $6,999.64 |
+$148.25 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:55pm ET | $11.23 | 623 | $6,999.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 623 | $6,709.71 | $6,709.95 |
$-289.69 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.65 | 630 | $6,709.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.31 | 630 | $6,492.15 | $6,492.60 |
$-217.35 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.54 | 562 | $6,485.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $11.82 | 562 | $6,645.65 | $6,652.77 |
+$160.17 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $12.13 | 548 | $6,644.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 12:45pm ET | $11.70 | 548 | $6,414.34 | $6,422.61 |
$-230.16 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $11.60 | 553 | $6,417.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.98 | 553 | $6,624.94 | $6,629.99 |
+$207.38 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $12.32 | 538 | $6,628.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $12.60 | 538 | $6,778.75 | $6,780.63 |
+$150.64 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $12.57 | 539 | $6,777.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $12.85 | 539 | $6,923.46 | $6,926.16 |
+$145.53 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 12:45pm ET | $13.63 | 508 | $6,924.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.83 | 508 | $6,517.64 | $6,519.76 |
$-406.40 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $12.76 | 510 | $6,507.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 2:20pm ET | $13.02 | 510 | $6,640.15 | $6,652.31 |
+$132.55 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.47 | 533 | $6,643.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.02 | 533 | $6,404.00 | $6,412.46 |
$-239.85 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.85 | 541 | $6,410.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 12:35pm ET | $12.13 | 541 | $6,559.63 | $6,561.23 |
+$148.77 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $13.25 | 495 | $6,558.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $13.53 | 495 | $6,699.82 | $6,702.35 |
+$141.12 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.00 | 478 | $6,692.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.52 | 478 | $6,938.17 | $6,948.47 |
+$246.12 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $13.95 | 498 | $6,947.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.25 | 498 | $7,096.50 | $7,097.92 |
+$149.45 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $13.91 | 510 | $7,094.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 2:15pm ET | $14.20 | 510 | $7,242.00 | $7,245.82 |
+$147.90 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:55pm ET | $14.48 | 500 | $7,240.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.94 | 500 | $6,971.50 | $6,977.27 |
$-268.55 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $14.88 | 468 | $6,963.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.38 | 468 | $6,727.50 | $6,740.93 |
$-236.34 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $14.88 | 468 | $6,963.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.68 | 468 | $6,399.90 | $6,176.99 |
$-563.94 (-8.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.08 | 472 | $6,173.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $12.55 | 472 | $5,921.24 | $5,924.56 |
$-252.43 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $13.31 | 444 | $5,911.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 1:50pm ET | $13.65 | 444 | $6,059.58 | $6,072.28 |
+$147.72 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $13.19 | 460 | $6,067.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $13.53 | 460 | $6,223.80 | $6,228.68 |
+$156.40 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $12.78 | 487 | $6,223.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $13.11 | 487 | $6,384.57 | $6,389.39 |
+$160.71 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 1:55pm ET | $13.93 | 458 | $6,377.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.94 | 458 | $6,842.52 | $6,854.26 |
+$464.87 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.60 | 469 | $6,847.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.91 | 469 | $6,995.13 | $7,001.99 |
+$147.73 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.34 | 488 | $6,997.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $14.69 | 488 | $7,166.28 | $7,170.45 |
+$168.46 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,170.45
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,829.55
Total Return:
-28.30%