Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:23:04

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 7.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 7.2

30-Day Momentum

3
-3.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,027.71
Current Value
$8,485.20
Period P&L
$-1,542.51
Max Drawdown
-15.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.41

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
19
Winners / Losers
5 / 14
Best Trade
+4.44%
Worst Trade
-3.84%
Avg Trade Return
-0.90%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$353,697.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,542.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,542.51
Gross Return
-15.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 19 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,027.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET $87.38 115 $10,048.13
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 10:45am ET $87.07 115 $10,013.62 $10,069.68 $-34.50
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 10:55am ET $87.01 115 $10,006.15
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 11:15am ET $89.04 115 $10,239.60 $10,303.13 +$233.45
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 11:20am ET $87.04 118 $10,270.72
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 11:20am ET $86.53 118 $10,210.54 $10,242.95 $-60.18
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 11:30am ET $86.49 118 $10,205.82
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 11:30am ET $86.27 118 $10,179.86 $10,216.99 $-25.96
(-0.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 12:05pm ET $87.92 116 $10,198.14
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $86.79 116 $10,068.22 $10,087.07 $-129.92
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $88.47 114 $10,085.58
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:40pm ET $85.80 114 $9,781.20 $9,782.69 $-304.38
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET $86.07 113 $9,725.35
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.37 113 $9,420.81 $9,478.16 $-304.53
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.12 114 $9,475.68
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 12:05pm ET $83.32 114 $9,497.91 $9,500.39 +$22.23
(+0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 12:45pm ET $81.81 116 $9,489.96
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET $79.31 116 $9,199.38 $9,209.81 $-290.58
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $80.81 113 $9,131.53
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $78.24 113 $8,840.56 $8,918.84 $-290.97
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
11 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 10:00am ET $77.51 115 $8,913.65
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 11:15am ET $79.09 115 $9,095.35 $9,100.54 +$181.70
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
12 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 12:55pm ET $76.86 118 $9,070.07
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 12:10pm ET $74.46 118 $8,786.28 $8,816.75 $-283.79
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
13 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 1:30pm ET $76.78 114 $8,752.92
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $76.47 114 $8,717.14 $8,780.97 $-35.78
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
14 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:45am ET $78.65 111 $8,730.15
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $78.37 111 $8,699.07 $8,749.89 $-31.08
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
15 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:55am ET $77.60 112 $8,691.20
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:40am ET $75.04 112 $8,404.48 $8,463.17 $-286.72
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET $74.21 114 $8,460.51
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $77.51 114 $8,836.14 $8,838.80 +$375.63
(+4.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET $81.48 108 $8,799.84
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:55am ET $81.77 108 $8,831.16 $8,870.12 +$31.32
(+0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $80.95 109 $8,823.55
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 12:35pm ET $80.51 109 $8,775.59 $8,822.16 $-47.96
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 12:50pm ET $81.29 108 $8,779.32
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $78.17 108 $8,442.36 $8,485.20 $-336.96
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,485.20
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,514.80
Total Return: -15.15%
Back to Rebel Contraire