MRNA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 35 trades in period
+8.64%
Last 3 Months Return
$23,304.62
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$21,451.83
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
45
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.0/35
Total Return
17.7/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
45.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 45.2
30-Day Momentum
55
+10.6%
30d Return
77%
Win Rate
13
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 58.0
Conf: 0.95×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$21,451.83
Current Value
$23,304.62
Period P&L
$1,852.82
Max Drawdown
-42.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
23 /
12
Best Trade
+3.50%
Worst Trade
-5.51%
Avg Trade Return
+0.28%
Avg Hold Time
22h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,495,675.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,852.82
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,852.82
Gross Return
+8.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $21,451.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:25pm ET | $51.67 | 415 | $21,444.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.07 | 415 | $22,023.30 | $22,030.14 |
+$578.34 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $53.69 | 410 | $22,010.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.92 | 410 | $21,287.20 | $21,306.49 |
$-723.65 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $48.24 | 441 | $21,273.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.88 | 441 | $21,997.08 | $22,029.73 |
+$723.24 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $51.43 | 428 | $22,012.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $49.84 | 428 | $21,331.52 | $21,349.21 |
$-680.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $48.75 | 437 | $21,303.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:45pm ET | $49.70 | 437 | $21,718.90 | $21,764.36 |
+$415.15 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.18 | 425 | $21,751.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $52.39 | 425 | $22,265.75 | $22,278.61 |
+$514.25 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $51.19 | 435 | $22,267.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $52.39 | 435 | $22,789.65 | $22,800.61 |
+$522.00 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $53.31 | 427 | $22,761.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 2:10pm ET | $54.41 | 427 | $23,233.07 | $23,272.44 |
+$471.83 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $54.08 | 430 | $23,256.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.50 | 430 | $23,865.00 | $23,880.89 |
+$608.45 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $54.81 | 435 | $23,840.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.46 | 435 | $22,820.10 | $22,860.81 |
$-1,020.08 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $54.95 | 416 | $22,859.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $53.23 | 416 | $22,143.68 | $22,145.29 |
$-715.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $50.96 | 434 | $22,116.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $49.35 | 434 | $21,417.90 | $21,446.55 |
$-698.74 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $47.58 | 450 | $21,408.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $45.88 | 450 | $20,646.00 | $20,683.80 |
$-762.75 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $47.60 | 434 | $20,656.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $46.12 | 434 | $20,016.08 | $20,043.65 |
$-640.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $44.10 | 454 | $20,021.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $45.18 | 454 | $20,511.81 | $20,534.06 |
+$490.41 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $47.10 | 436 | $20,533.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $48.04 | 436 | $20,945.44 | $20,946.08 |
+$412.02 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:40pm ET | $48.43 | 432 | $20,921.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.08 | 432 | $21,636.72 | $21,661.04 |
+$714.96 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $57.60 | 376 | $21,657.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $54.87 | 376 | $20,629.62 | $20,633.06 |
$-1,027.98 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 11:55am ET | $54.15 | 381 | $20,630.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.17 | 381 | $19,493.87 | $19,496.27 |
$-1,136.79 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.19 | 396 | $19,479.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.26 | 396 | $19,902.96 | $19,919.99 |
+$423.72 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $48.25 | 412 | $19,879.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.94 | 412 | $20,575.28 | $20,616.27 |
+$696.28 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.80 | 440 | $20,591.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $47.85 | 440 | $21,051.80 | $21,076.51 |
+$460.24 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $46.73 | 451 | $21,075.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.75 | 451 | $21,535.25 | $21,536.53 |
+$460.02 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $48.10 | 447 | $21,502.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.23 | 447 | $20,664.81 | $20,699.03 |
$-837.50 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.29 | 437 | $20,665.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 12:00pm ET | $48.29 | 437 | $21,102.73 | $21,136.03 |
+$437.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $46.12 | 458 | $21,122.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.14 | 458 | $20,215.62 | $20,228.69 |
$-907.34 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $45.56 | 444 | $20,228.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $46.49 | 444 | $20,639.34 | $20,639.39 |
+$410.70 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $51.28 | 402 | $20,614.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $49.51 | 402 | $19,905.03 | $19,929.82 |
$-709.57 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $47.64 | 418 | $19,913.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $48.71 | 418 | $20,358.69 | $20,374.99 |
+$445.17 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:20am ET | $46.46 | 438 | $20,347.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $47.42 | 438 | $20,769.96 | $20,797.66 |
+$422.67 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $46.28 | 449 | $20,779.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $47.32 | 449 | $21,246.68 | $21,264.62 |
+$466.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $49.84 | 426 | $21,231.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $50.93 | 426 | $21,696.18 | $21,728.96 |
+$464.34 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.18 | 433 | $21,727.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $51.36 | 433 | $22,238.88 | $22,239.90 |
+$510.94 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 1:20pm ET | $56.53 | 393 | $22,215.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $58.08 | 393 | $22,823.48 | $22,848.30 |
+$608.40 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 12:45pm ET | $61.98 | 368 | $22,808.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 1:10pm ET | $63.22 | 368 | $23,264.96 | $23,304.62 |
+$456.32 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$23,304.62
Net Profit/Loss:
+$13,304.62
Total Return:
+133.05%