Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:18:37

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

48
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.0/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 48.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 47.6

30-Day Momentum

59
+11.6%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 79.7 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+12 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,330.62
Current Value
$18,232.74
Period P&L
$3,902.13
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.53

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
14 / 6
Best Trade
+6.58%
Worst Trade
-3.71%
Avg Trade Return
+1.24%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$631,361.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,902.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,902.13
Gross Return
+27.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,330.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $164.30 87 $14,294.53
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET $168.17 87 $14,630.44 $14,666.52 +$335.91
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 10:05am ET $165.71 88 $14,582.05
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $159.57 88 $14,041.72 $14,126.19 $-540.33
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $159.33 88 $14,021.04
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $163.00 88 $14,344.00 $14,449.15 +$322.96
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 12:50pm ET $166.92 86 $14,355.12
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $161.57 86 $13,895.02 $13,989.05 $-460.10
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET $166.04 84 $13,946.94
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $176.96 84 $14,864.64 $14,906.75 +$917.70
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $175.39 84 $14,732.76
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:45pm ET $178.98 84 $15,034.32 $15,208.31 +$301.56
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:45pm ET $184.32 82 $15,114.24
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $188.49 82 $15,456.18 $15,550.25 +$341.94
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:40am ET $188.44 82 $15,452.08
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $192.23 82 $15,762.86 $15,861.03 +$310.78
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:25am ET $191.49 82 $15,702.18
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET $189.18 82 $15,512.76 $15,671.61 $-189.42
(-1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET $188.78 83 $15,668.74
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:00am ET $193.20 83 $16,035.60 $16,038.47 +$366.86
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
11 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:05am ET $189.30 84 $15,901.20
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $193.60 84 $16,262.40 $16,399.67 +$361.20
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
12 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:00am ET $191.07 85 $16,240.53
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:00am ET $187.35 85 $15,924.33 $16,083.47 $-316.20
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:45am ET $192.71 83 $15,994.93
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:45am ET $191.85 83 $15,923.96 $16,012.50 $-70.97
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 12:00pm ET $191.26 83 $15,874.99
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 10:30am ET $195.16 83 $16,198.28 $16,335.79 +$323.29
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
15 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:30am ET $199.19 82 $16,333.58
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $203.27 82 $16,668.14 $16,670.35 +$334.56
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
16 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:40am ET $199.24 83 $16,537.27
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:05am ET $203.41 83 $16,883.44 $17,016.53 +$346.18
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 11:25am ET $207.64 81 $16,818.84
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:35pm ET $212.00 81 $17,172.17 $17,369.86 +$353.33
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $215.01 80 $17,200.80
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $214.24 80 $17,139.20 $17,308.26 $-61.60
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.7d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $209.04 82 $17,141.28
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $215.79 82 $17,694.78 $17,861.76 +$553.50
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $219.96 81 $17,816.36
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET $224.54 81 $18,187.34 $18,232.74 +$370.98
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,232.74
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,232.74
Total Return: +82.33%
Back to Rebel Contraire