Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:24:12

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

38
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
7.2/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 38.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 38.4

30-Day Momentum

2
-10.4%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-36 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,526.12
Current Value
$15,394.07
Period P&L
$-1,132.05
Max Drawdown
-19.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
8 / 10
Best Trade
+2.86%
Worst Trade
-3.60%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
3.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$623,544.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,132.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,132.05
Gross Return
-6.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $16,526.12 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 12:15pm ET $91.26 177 $16,153.02
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 11:00am ET $93.12 177 $16,482.24 $16,557.10 +$329.22
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 11:20am ET $92.28 179 $16,518.12
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:15pm ET $94.15 179 $16,853.21 $16,892.19 +$335.09
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $93.35 180 $16,802.10
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET $95.53 180 $17,194.50 $17,284.59 +$392.40
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:00pm ET $95.67 180 $17,220.60
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $97.67 180 $17,580.60 $17,644.59 +$360.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:50am ET $98.19 179 $17,576.01
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET $100.21 179 $17,937.57 $18,006.15 +$361.56
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:45am ET $101.82 176 $17,921.20
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $104.74 176 $18,433.36 $18,518.31 +$512.16
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET $105.82 174 $18,413.55
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:45am ET $108.03 174 $18,797.22 $18,901.98 +$383.67
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $97.82 193 $18,878.62
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET $94.69 193 $18,276.13 $18,299.49 $-602.49
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 11:25am ET $93.31 196 $18,287.78
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $91.85 196 $18,002.60 $18,014.31 $-285.18
(-1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 11:15am ET $90.76 198 $17,970.48
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 11:00am ET $92.69 198 $18,352.64 $18,396.47 +$382.16
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET $93.11 197 $18,343.65
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:40am ET $89.76 197 $17,682.72 $17,735.54 $-660.93
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
12 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 10:40am ET $88.19 201 $17,726.79
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:40am ET $87.07 201 $17,501.07 $17,509.82 $-225.72
(-1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:40am ET $88.03 198 $17,429.94
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $86.38 198 $17,103.24 $17,183.12 $-326.70
(-1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
14 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:25am ET $90.19 190 $17,136.10
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $88.53 190 $16,819.75 $16,866.77 $-316.35
(-1.8%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
15 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:55am ET $87.37 193 $16,862.41
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:55am ET $87.03 193 $16,797.47 $16,801.83 $-64.94
(-0.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET $83.49 201 $16,781.47
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $81.54 201 $16,389.94 $16,410.30 $-391.53
(-2.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $82.18 199 $16,354.81
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:55am ET $79.58 199 $15,836.42 $15,891.91 $-518.39
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:20am ET $80.68 196 $15,812.30
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 1:40pm ET $78.14 196 $15,314.46 $15,394.07 $-497.84
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,394.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,394.07
Total Return: +53.94%
Back to Rebel Contraire