Compendium › Rebel Contraire › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 30 trades in period

+7.45%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,757.69
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$6,289.37
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:18:02

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 9.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 9.3

30-Day Momentum

20
+0.8%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 23.5 Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,289.37
Current Value
$6,757.69
Period P&L
$468.33
Max Drawdown
-39.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
20 / 10
Best Trade
+4.72%
Worst Trade
-5.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.28%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$404,098.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$468.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$468.33
Gross Return
+7.45%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.45%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,289.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:00am ET $5.76 1,091 $6,285.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:55am ET $5.89 1,091 $6,425.44 $6,429.34 +$139.98
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:55am ET $5.81 1,106 $6,425.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET $5.63 1,106 $6,229.43 $6,232.91 $-196.43
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $5.41 1,151 $6,228.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $5.54 1,151 $6,376.54 $6,380.93 +$148.02
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $6.09 1,047 $6,376.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 2:10pm ET $6.22 1,047 $6,507.11 $6,511.81 +$130.88
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET $6.24 1,042 $6,507.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:55am ET $6.05 1,042 $6,304.00 $6,308.52 $-203.29
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 2:40pm ET $6.43 980 $6,302.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $6.57 980 $6,438.60 $6,444.74 +$136.22
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 10:45am ET $6.39 1,007 $6,439.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 11:10am ET $6.54 1,007 $6,584.37 $6,589.35 +$144.61
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
25m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET $6.50 1,013 $6,585.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $6.64 1,013 $6,726.22 $6,730.36 +$141.01
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $6.47 1,040 $6,728.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $6.65 1,040 $6,914.96 $6,916.62 +$186.26
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:00am ET $6.86 1,007 $6,913.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $6.64 1,007 $6,686.48 $6,690.05 $-226.57
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET $6.49 1,030 $6,689.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET $6.29 1,030 $6,478.70 $6,478.90 $-211.15
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $6.22 1,041 $6,475.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET $6.35 1,041 $6,610.25 $6,614.13 +$135.23
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET $6.30 1,049 $6,611.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $6.60 1,049 $6,923.40 $6,926.10 +$311.97
(+4.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $6.26 1,106 $6,923.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET $6.39 1,106 $7,061.81 $7,064.68 +$138.58
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held
15 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET $5.93 1,192 $7,062.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:00am ET $6.05 1,192 $7,205.64 $7,207.72 +$143.04
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
16 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:15am ET $6.07 1,187 $7,205.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $5.71 1,187 $6,780.74 $6,783.37 $-424.35
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
17 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 11:05am ET $5.97 1,137 $6,782.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:15am ET $6.09 1,137 $6,918.65 $6,919.81 +$136.44
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
18 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 12:00pm ET $5.91 1,171 $6,914.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 2:35pm ET $6.03 1,171 $7,058.79 $7,063.84 +$144.03
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
19 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 3:15pm ET $6.48 1,089 $7,058.46 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:00am ET $6.22 1,089 $6,779.02 $6,784.40 $-279.44
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held
20 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 10:50am ET $6.12 1,108 $6,780.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $5.89 1,108 $6,520.58 $6,524.02 $-260.38
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
21 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:50am ET $5.72 1,140 $6,520.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $5.88 1,140 $6,703.20 $6,706.42 +$182.40
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
22 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:00am ET $5.18 1,293 $6,704.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:40am ET $5.32 1,293 $6,872.30 $6,874.51 +$168.09
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
23 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:40am ET $5.68 1,210 $6,872.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 3:30pm ET $5.81 1,210 $7,030.10 $7,031.81 +$157.30
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
24 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $5.38 1,307 $7,031.66 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:45am ET $5.49 1,307 $7,173.73 $7,173.88 +$142.07
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15m held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 10:55am ET $5.90 1,215 $7,168.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $6.02 1,215 $7,314.30 $7,319.80 +$145.92
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:50pm ET $6.05 1,208 $7,314.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $5.84 1,208 $7,057.26 $7,062.62 $-257.18
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET $5.82 1,212 $7,059.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $5.55 1,212 $6,726.72 $6,729.44 $-333.18
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:10am ET $5.50 1,223 $6,728.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $5.34 1,223 $6,524.71 $6,525.20 $-204.24
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:50am ET $5.23 1,247 $6,521.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:50am ET $5.29 1,247 $6,596.75 $6,600.14 +$74.94
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 12:30pm ET $5.02 1,314 $6,596.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:10am ET $5.14 1,314 $6,753.83 $6,757.69 +$157.55
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,757.69
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,242.31
Total Return: -32.42%
Back to Rebel Contraire