NIO Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 31 trades in period
-0.63%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,783.37
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$6,826.63
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
9.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 8.9
30-Day Momentum
35
+4.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 38.3
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,784
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,826.63
Current Value
$6,783.37
Period P&L
$-43.25
Max Drawdown
-39.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
18 /
13
Best Trade
+4.72%
Worst Trade
-6.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.18%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$408,899.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-43.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-43.25
Gross Return
-0.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,826.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $5.07 | 1,434 | $7,274.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,434 | $6,825.41 | $6,826.61 |
$-448.89 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $4.93 | 1,383 | $6,825.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $4.97 | 1,383 | $6,866.60 | $6,868.11 |
+$41.49 (+0.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.99 | 1,376 | $6,866.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $4.83 | 1,376 | $6,644.02 | $6,646.02 |
$-222.09 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $4.95 | 1,343 | $6,641.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $5.05 | 1,343 | $6,775.44 | $6,780.32 |
+$134.30 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $5.30 | 1,280 | $6,777.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $5.13 | 1,280 | $6,566.02 | $6,568.74 |
$-211.58 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $4.95 | 1,326 | $6,567.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.76 | 1,326 | $6,311.76 | $6,312.95 |
$-255.79 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $4.49 | 1,406 | $6,312.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 2:45pm ET | $4.59 | 1,406 | $6,446.51 | $6,446.66 |
+$133.71 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.79 | 1,345 | $6,442.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $4.64 | 1,345 | $6,240.80 | $6,245.18 |
$-201.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $4.76 | 1,311 | $6,243.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.89 | 1,311 | $6,404.24 | $6,406.30 |
+$161.12 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $5.37 | 1,193 | $6,401.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $5.48 | 1,193 | $6,537.64 | $6,542.90 |
+$136.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:35am ET | $5.63 | 1,163 | $6,541.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $5.45 | 1,163 | $6,332.54 | $6,333.56 |
$-209.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $5.57 | 1,138 | $6,332.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.74 | 1,138 | $6,526.43 | $6,527.02 |
+$193.46 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.05 | 1,079 | $6,526.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $6.21 | 1,079 | $6,700.59 | $6,701.60 |
+$174.58 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $6.01 | 1,114 | $6,700.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $5.82 | 1,114 | $6,483.48 | $6,484.37 |
$-217.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.77 | 1,124 | $6,483.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $5.59 | 1,124 | $6,288.78 | $6,289.36 |
$-195.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $5.76 | 1,091 | $6,285.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $5.89 | 1,091 | $6,425.44 | $6,429.34 |
+$139.98 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.81 | 1,106 | $6,425.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $5.63 | 1,106 | $6,229.43 | $6,232.91 |
$-196.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $5.41 | 1,151 | $6,228.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.54 | 1,151 | $6,376.54 | $6,380.93 |
+$148.02 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $6.09 | 1,047 | $6,376.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $6.22 | 1,047 | $6,507.11 | $6,511.81 |
+$130.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $6.24 | 1,042 | $6,507.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $6.05 | 1,042 | $6,304.00 | $6,308.52 |
$-203.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.43 | 980 | $6,302.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.57 | 980 | $6,438.60 | $6,444.74 |
+$136.22 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $6.39 | 1,007 | $6,439.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $6.54 | 1,007 | $6,584.37 | $6,589.35 |
+$144.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.50 | 1,013 | $6,585.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.64 | 1,013 | $6,726.22 | $6,730.36 |
+$141.01 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $6.47 | 1,040 | $6,728.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.65 | 1,040 | $6,914.96 | $6,916.62 |
+$186.26 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.86 | 1,007 | $6,913.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.64 | 1,007 | $6,686.48 | $6,690.05 |
$-226.57 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $6.49 | 1,030 | $6,689.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $6.29 | 1,030 | $6,478.70 | $6,478.90 |
$-211.15 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $6.22 | 1,041 | $6,475.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.35 | 1,041 | $6,610.25 | $6,614.13 |
+$135.23 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $6.30 | 1,049 | $6,611.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.60 | 1,049 | $6,923.40 | $6,926.10 |
+$311.97 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.26 | 1,106 | $6,923.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $6.39 | 1,106 | $7,061.81 | $7,064.68 |
+$138.58 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $5.93 | 1,192 | $7,062.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $6.05 | 1,192 | $7,205.64 | $7,207.72 |
+$143.04 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $6.07 | 1,187 | $7,205.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.71 | 1,187 | $6,780.74 | $6,783.37 |
$-424.35 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,783.37
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,216.63
Total Return:
-32.17%