PANW Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 30 trades in period
+18.12%
Last 3 Months Return
$17,865.07
Current Value
73%
Win Rate
$15,125.11
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
47
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
14.8/35
Total Return
15.8/25
Win Rate
8.5/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
47.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 47.3
30-Day Momentum
50
+8.3%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 57.8
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$15,125.11
Current Value
$17,865.07
Period P&L
$2,739.98
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
22 /
8
Best Trade
+3.20%
Worst Trade
-4.98%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$989,599.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,739.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,739.98
Gross Return
+18.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $15,125.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $165.10 | 91 | $15,024.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $158.08 | 91 | $14,385.28 | $14,486.27 |
$-638.82 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:45am ET | $155.25 | 93 | $14,438.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $158.65 | 93 | $14,754.45 | $14,802.47 |
+$316.20 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $148.29 | 99 | $14,681.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $151.53 | 99 | $15,001.47 | $15,122.74 |
+$320.27 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET | $156.98 | 96 | $15,070.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $160.12 | 96 | $15,371.52 | $15,424.18 |
+$301.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:55pm ET | $160.54 | 96 | $15,411.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $161.93 | 96 | $15,545.28 | $15,557.62 |
+$133.44 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:10pm ET | $162.24 | 95 | $15,412.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $165.97 | 95 | $15,766.84 | $15,911.66 |
+$354.04 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $166.80 | 95 | $15,846.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $161.76 | 95 | $15,366.73 | $15,431.91 |
$-479.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $158.60 | 97 | $15,384.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $161.79 | 97 | $15,694.11 | $15,741.82 |
+$309.91 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $160.35 | 98 | $15,714.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.60 | 98 | $16,130.80 | $16,158.32 |
+$416.50 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $165.11 | 97 | $16,015.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.40 | 97 | $16,528.80 | $16,671.45 |
+$513.13 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $167.46 | 99 | $16,579.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $171.67 | 99 | $16,995.63 | $17,088.04 |
+$416.59 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:35am ET | $178.65 | 95 | $16,971.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.88 | 95 | $16,423.60 | $16,540.37 |
$-547.67 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $175.51 | 94 | $16,497.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $179.37 | 94 | $16,860.78 | $16,903.21 |
+$362.84 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $183.62 | 92 | $16,893.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $176.91 | 92 | $16,275.72 | $16,285.89 |
$-617.32 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $178.55 | 91 | $16,248.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:50am ET | $182.40 | 91 | $16,598.85 | $16,636.24 |
+$350.35 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $185.60 | 89 | $16,518.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $179.57 | 89 | $15,982.17 | $16,100.01 |
$-536.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $196.25 | 82 | $16,092.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:30am ET | $200.76 | 82 | $16,462.32 | $16,469.83 |
+$369.82 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $212.75 | 77 | $16,381.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $217.65 | 77 | $16,759.05 | $16,847.13 |
+$377.30 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $236.82 | 71 | $16,814.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $241.86 | 71 | $17,172.06 | $17,204.62 |
+$357.49 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 1:05pm ET | $247.24 | 69 | $17,059.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $236.86 | 69 | $16,343.34 | $16,488.40 |
$-716.22 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $248.73 | 66 | $16,416.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $256.08 | 66 | $16,900.95 | $16,973.16 |
+$484.76 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $252.73 | 67 | $16,932.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:10am ET | $258.17 | 67 | $17,297.39 | $17,337.64 |
+$364.48 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $247.90 | 69 | $17,105.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $252.89 | 69 | $17,449.41 | $17,681.95 |
+$344.31 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $269.09 | 65 | $17,490.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $275.11 | 65 | $17,882.47 | $18,073.57 |
+$391.62 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 12:25pm ET | $292.79 | 61 | $17,860.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $299.01 | 61 | $18,239.61 | $18,452.99 |
+$379.42 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 2:40pm ET | $294.64 | 62 | $18,267.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.96 | 62 | $17,357.52 | $17,542.83 |
$-910.16 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $273.93 | 64 | $17,531.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 3:20pm ET | $280.49 | 64 | $17,951.36 | $17,962.35 |
+$419.52 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $266.34 | 67 | $17,844.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $258.17 | 67 | $17,297.06 | $17,414.63 |
$-547.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:10pm ET | $265.22 | 65 | $17,239.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $271.20 | 65 | $17,628.00 | $17,803.33 |
+$388.70 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $280.72 | 63 | $17,685.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $281.70 | 63 | $17,747.10 | $17,865.07 |
+$61.74 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,865.07
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,865.07
Total Return:
+78.65%