RBLX Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 34 trades in period
-27.63%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,864.26
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$20,538.24
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
34
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.9/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
34.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 33.6
30-Day Momentum
44
+6.6%
30d Return
70%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.1
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+10 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$20,538.24
Current Value
$14,864.26
Period P&L
$-5,673.93
Max Drawdown
-34.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
19 /
15
Best Trade
+3.75%
Worst Trade
-23.77%
Avg Trade Return
-0.81%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,084,639.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-5,673.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$-5,673.93
Gross Return
-27.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-27.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $20,538.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 2:10pm ET | $56.69 | 361 | $20,463.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $54.78 | 361 | $19,777.38 | $19,810.78 |
$-685.90 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $56.21 | 352 | $19,784.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $54.28 | 352 | $19,106.70 | $19,133.32 |
$-677.46 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:25pm ET | $52.73 | 362 | $19,088.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.89 | 362 | $19,508.18 | $19,553.24 |
+$419.92 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $58.28 | 335 | $19,525.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.47 | 335 | $18,917.79 | $18,945.55 |
$-607.69 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $59.25 | 319 | $18,900.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $57.26 | 319 | $18,264.35 | $18,309.15 |
$-636.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $56.22 | 325 | $18,271.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 1:45pm ET | $57.47 | 325 | $18,677.75 | $18,715.40 |
+$406.25 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $56.71 | 330 | $18,714.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.63 | 330 | $18,027.90 | $18,029.00 |
$-686.40 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $54.57 | 330 | $18,008.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.92 | 330 | $17,461.95 | $17,482.85 |
$-546.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 1:55pm ET | $58.56 | 298 | $17,450.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.29 | 298 | $17,966.42 | $17,998.39 |
+$515.54 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $60.31 | 298 | $17,972.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $61.79 | 298 | $18,413.42 | $18,439.43 |
+$441.04 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $60.60 | 304 | $18,423.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $61.87 | 304 | $18,808.48 | $18,823.99 |
+$384.56 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $61.76 | 304 | $18,775.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $59.85 | 304 | $18,195.92 | $18,244.87 |
$-579.12 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.84 | 338 | $18,197.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $55.10 | 338 | $18,622.11 | $18,669.06 |
+$424.19 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $57.51 | 324 | $18,633.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.53 | 324 | $17,669.34 | $17,705.16 |
$-963.90 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $55.78 | 317 | $17,682.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.52 | 317 | $13,478.84 | $13,501.74 |
$-4,203.42 (-23.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.03 | 299 | $13,462.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.23 | 299 | $13,822.77 | $13,862.03 |
+$360.29 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.87 | 302 | $13,851.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $44.48 | 302 | $13,432.96 | $13,443.76 |
$-418.27 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $43.81 | 306 | $13,407.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.75 | 306 | $13,693.50 | $13,729.87 |
+$286.11 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $43.54 | 315 | $13,716.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:30am ET | $42.18 | 315 | $13,286.70 | $13,299.90 |
$-429.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 12:15pm ET | $42.10 | 315 | $13,261.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $42.98 | 315 | $13,538.70 | $13,577.10 |
+$277.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $40.87 | 332 | $13,567.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $41.80 | 332 | $13,877.60 | $13,887.52 |
+$310.42 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $43.03 | 322 | $13,857.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $43.90 | 322 | $14,135.80 | $14,166.05 |
+$278.53 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 11:05am ET | $46.89 | 302 | $14,160.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:25am ET | $45.16 | 302 | $13,638.35 | $13,643.62 |
$-522.43 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $45.33 | 300 | $13,600.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.35 | 300 | $13,903.50 | $13,946.62 |
+$303.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $46.95 | 297 | $13,944.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:45pm ET | $47.94 | 297 | $14,238.18 | $14,240.65 |
+$294.03 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 1:45pm ET | $45.93 | 310 | $14,237.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $46.88 | 310 | $14,532.80 | $14,536.20 |
+$295.55 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 12:00pm ET | $47.09 | 308 | $14,503.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $45.55 | 308 | $14,029.40 | $14,061.88 |
$-474.32 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:05am ET | $43.24 | 325 | $14,053.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.86 | 325 | $14,579.50 | $14,588.38 |
+$526.50 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $42.99 | 339 | $14,575.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:00pm ET | $41.56 | 339 | $14,088.84 | $14,101.99 |
$-486.39 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $42.58 | 331 | $14,095.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $43.45 | 331 | $14,381.95 | $14,388.31 |
+$286.32 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $42.58 | 337 | $14,351.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.17 | 337 | $13,874.29 | $13,911.45 |
$-476.86 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $42.76 | 325 | $13,897.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.64 | 325 | $14,183.00 | $14,197.45 |
+$286.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 2:10pm ET | $45.41 | 312 | $14,168.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.58 | 312 | $14,532.96 | $14,562.27 |
+$364.82 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.61 | 299 | $14,534.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $49.62 | 299 | $14,836.38 | $14,864.26 |
+$301.99 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,864.26
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,864.26
Total Return:
+48.64%