RIOT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 36 trades in period
+3.46%
Last 3 Months Return
$5,281.24
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$5,104.64
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
11
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.0/10
Raw Quality
10.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.7
30-Day Momentum
17
-0.0%
30d Return
64%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9
Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,104.64
Current Value
$5,281.24
Period P&L
$176.55
Max Drawdown
-55.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
22 /
14
Best Trade
+11.28%
Worst Trade
-7.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
18.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$383,615.68
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$176.55
Net P&L (after fees)
$176.55
Gross Return
+3.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.46%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $5,104.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.19 | 359 | $5,094.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.55 | 359 | $5,221.66 | $5,232.14 |
+$127.45 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:50am ET | $14.86 | 351 | $5,217.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.19 | 351 | $5,329.94 | $5,344.46 |
+$112.32 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $13.06 | 409 | $5,339.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.60 | 409 | $5,151.36 | $5,156.32 |
$-188.14 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.90 | 433 | $5,154.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $12.31 | 433 | $5,330.23 | $5,331.69 |
+$175.37 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $12.75 | 418 | $5,329.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.94 | 418 | $4,990.92 | $4,993.11 |
$-338.58 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $13.38 | 373 | $4,990.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:45pm ET | $13.68 | 373 | $5,100.78 | $5,103.56 |
+$110.45 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $13.92 | 366 | $5,094.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.49 | 366 | $5,669.34 | $5,678.18 |
+$574.62 (+11.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.40 | 346 | $5,672.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $16.74 | 346 | $5,790.31 | $5,795.82 |
+$117.64 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:35am ET | $16.85 | 343 | $5,781.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.32 | 343 | $5,596.05 | $5,610.60 |
$-185.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $18.59 | 301 | $5,595.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.81 | 301 | $5,360.81 | $5,375.82 |
$-234.78 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.42 | 327 | $5,369.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $16.76 | 327 | $5,482.15 | $5,488.63 |
+$112.81 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.99 | 305 | $5,485.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $18.39 | 305 | $5,607.43 | $5,610.63 |
+$122.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $18.45 | 304 | $5,608.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $18.85 | 304 | $5,730.40 | $5,732.26 |
+$121.63 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $18.67 | 307 | $5,730.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $18.02 | 307 | $5,532.14 | $5,534.24 |
$-198.02 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $16.74 | 330 | $5,522.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.14 | 330 | $5,326.73 | $5,338.42 |
$-195.82 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.64 | 320 | $5,323.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:10am ET | $17.10 | 320 | $5,472.00 | $5,487.22 |
+$148.80 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $18.83 | 291 | $5,479.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $18.21 | 291 | $5,299.11 | $5,306.80 |
$-180.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 2:40pm ET | $18.28 | 290 | $5,302.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $18.68 | 290 | $5,417.23 | $5,421.38 |
+$114.58 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $22.66 | 239 | $5,415.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $23.17 | 239 | $5,538.82 | $5,544.46 |
+$123.08 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.57 | 235 | $5,537.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $24.08 | 235 | $5,658.80 | $5,665.48 |
+$121.02 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 2:40pm ET | $25.60 | 221 | $5,657.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.48 | 221 | $5,410.08 | $5,417.94 |
$-247.54 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $24.43 | 221 | $5,399.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 1:20pm ET | $25.00 | 221 | $5,525.00 | $5,543.91 |
+$125.97 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:25pm ET | $24.42 | 227 | $5,543.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.46 | 227 | $5,325.42 | $5,325.99 |
$-217.92 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.26 | 228 | $5,303.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $22.55 | 228 | $5,141.40 | $5,164.11 |
$-161.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $22.71 | 227 | $5,155.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.23 | 227 | $5,273.21 | $5,282.15 |
+$118.04 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $24.43 | 216 | $5,276.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $25.02 | 216 | $5,404.32 | $5,409.59 |
+$127.44 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $25.91 | 208 | $5,389.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $26.43 | 208 | $5,497.44 | $5,517.75 |
+$108.16 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 2:35pm ET | $28.11 | 196 | $5,510.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $27.09 | 196 | $5,309.64 | $5,316.85 |
$-200.90 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 1:55pm ET | $28.72 | 185 | $5,313.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 12:35pm ET | $27.84 | 185 | $5,150.40 | $5,154.05 |
$-162.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $27.50 | 187 | $5,142.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 2:40pm ET | $28.08 | 187 | $5,250.03 | $5,261.58 |
+$107.53 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:40pm ET | $27.75 | 189 | $5,243.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.77 | 189 | $4,871.36 | $4,889.14 |
$-372.44 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.71 | 197 | $4,867.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $25.22 | 197 | $4,967.36 | $4,988.63 |
+$99.49 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $24.69 | 202 | $4,987.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $23.94 | 202 | $4,835.90 | $4,837.15 |
$-151.48 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:50pm ET | $23.87 | 202 | $4,821.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.38 | 202 | $4,924.76 | $4,940.17 |
+$103.02 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 10:20am ET | $27.19 | 181 | $4,921.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.41 | 181 | $5,142.21 | $5,160.99 |
+$220.82 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $27.79 | 185 | $5,141.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $28.44 | 185 | $5,261.40 | $5,281.24 |
+$120.25 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,281.24
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,718.76
Total Return:
-47.19%