RIVN Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 34 trades in period
+13.64%
Last 3 Months Return
$4,848.98
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$4,267.18
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
9.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 9.7
30-Day Momentum
16
-3.0%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.9
Conf: 0.93×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,793
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$4,267.18
Current Value
$4,848.98
Period P&L
$581.84
Max Drawdown
-60.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
21 /
13
Best Trade
+7.40%
Worst Trade
-4.55%
Avg Trade Return
+0.34%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$316,897.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$581.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$581.84
Gross Return
+13.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $4,267.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $14.86 | 294 | $4,370.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.40 | 294 | $4,235.07 | $4,245.09 |
$-135.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $15.34 | 276 | $4,233.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $15.32 | 276 | $4,228.32 | $4,239.60 |
$-5.49 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
30m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 2:35pm ET | $14.44 | 293 | $4,232.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $14.77 | 293 | $4,326.15 | $4,333.36 |
+$93.76 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.10 | 253 | $4,327.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $16.57 | 253 | $4,192.21 | $4,198.26 |
$-135.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.80 | 249 | $4,181.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $16.27 | 249 | $4,051.23 | $4,067.54 |
$-130.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:10pm ET | $15.23 | 267 | $4,065.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $15.56 | 267 | $4,153.19 | $4,155.65 |
+$88.11 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $15.02 | 276 | $4,145.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.34 | 276 | $4,233.84 | $4,243.97 |
+$88.32 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.36 | 276 | $4,239.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.67 | 276 | $4,324.92 | $4,329.03 |
+$85.06 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.22 | 284 | $4,321.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.71 | 284 | $4,178.21 | $4,186.18 |
$-142.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.94 | 280 | $4,184.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.25 | 280 | $4,270.03 | $4,271.61 |
+$85.43 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.11 | 282 | $4,262.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.45 | 282 | $4,356.90 | $4,366.08 |
+$94.47 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.44 | 282 | $4,354.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $15.77 | 282 | $4,445.73 | $4,457.73 |
+$91.65 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $16.78 | 265 | $4,446.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $16.24 | 265 | $4,303.60 | $4,314.60 |
$-143.13 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 12:15pm ET | $15.84 | 272 | $4,308.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $15.36 | 272 | $4,177.92 | $4,184.04 |
$-130.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $14.84 | 281 | $4,170.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $15.16 | 281 | $4,259.96 | $4,273.99 |
+$89.95 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $15.65 | 273 | $4,273.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:55pm ET | $15.97 | 273 | $4,359.81 | $4,360.15 |
+$86.16 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $15.61 | 279 | $4,356.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.77 | 279 | $4,678.80 | $4,682.37 |
+$322.22 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.19 | 308 | $4,678.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 11:55am ET | $15.52 | 308 | $4,778.62 | $4,782.47 |
+$100.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $15.82 | 302 | $4,779.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.33 | 302 | $4,930.15 | $4,933.47 |
+$151.00 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $15.60 | 316 | $4,929.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.07 | 316 | $4,762.12 | $4,765.99 |
$-167.48 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.43 | 330 | $4,761.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.77 | 330 | $4,875.75 | $4,879.84 |
+$113.85 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.20 | 320 | $4,865.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.57 | 320 | $4,984.00 | $4,998.24 |
+$118.40 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.10 | 331 | $4,998.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $14.62 | 331 | $4,839.22 | $4,839.36 |
$-158.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.35 | 315 | $4,833.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.71 | 315 | $4,948.65 | $4,954.33 |
+$114.97 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.53 | 319 | $4,954.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $15.86 | 319 | $5,060.93 | $5,061.20 |
+$106.87 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $15.94 | 317 | $5,053.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $16.26 | 317 | $5,156.00 | $5,164.16 |
+$102.96 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $16.98 | 304 | $5,160.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.32 | 304 | $5,265.28 | $5,269.04 |
+$104.88 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.83 | 312 | $5,252.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $17.19 | 312 | $5,361.88 | $5,378.40 |
+$109.36 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $17.56 | 306 | $5,371.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 12:00pm ET | $17.92 | 306 | $5,483.52 | $5,490.09 |
+$111.69 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:45pm ET | $17.12 | 320 | $5,478.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.50 | 320 | $5,280.00 | $5,291.69 |
$-198.40 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $16.67 | 317 | $5,285.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.14 | 317 | $5,114.80 | $5,120.51 |
$-171.18 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $15.98 | 320 | $5,112.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $16.34 | 320 | $5,228.80 | $5,237.31 |
+$116.80 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.40 | 340 | $5,236.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.70 | 340 | $4,997.97 | $4,999.28 |
$-238.03 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $14.94 | 334 | $4,989.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $14.49 | 334 | $4,839.66 | $4,848.98 |
$-150.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,848.98
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,151.02
Total Return:
-51.51%