RIVN Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 33 trades in period
+3.43%
Last 3 Months Return
$4,946.52
Current Value
64%
Win Rate
$4,782.51
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality
10.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.0
30-Day Momentum
50
+9.4%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.5
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$4,782.51
Current Value
$4,946.52
Period P&L
$164.05
Max Drawdown
-60.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
21 /
12
Best Trade
+3.16%
Worst Trade
-4.55%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$325,291.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$164.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$164.05
Gross Return
+3.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $4,782.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $15.82 | 302 | $4,779.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.33 | 302 | $4,930.15 | $4,933.47 |
+$151.00 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $15.60 | 316 | $4,929.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.07 | 316 | $4,762.12 | $4,765.99 |
$-167.48 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.43 | 330 | $4,761.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.77 | 330 | $4,875.75 | $4,879.84 |
+$113.85 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.20 | 320 | $4,865.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.57 | 320 | $4,984.00 | $4,998.24 |
+$118.40 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.10 | 331 | $4,998.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $14.62 | 331 | $4,839.22 | $4,839.36 |
$-158.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.35 | 315 | $4,833.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.71 | 315 | $4,948.65 | $4,954.33 |
+$114.97 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.53 | 319 | $4,954.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 1:40pm ET | $15.86 | 319 | $5,060.93 | $5,061.20 |
+$106.87 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $15.94 | 317 | $5,053.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $16.26 | 317 | $5,156.00 | $5,164.16 |
+$102.96 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $16.98 | 304 | $5,160.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.32 | 304 | $5,265.28 | $5,269.04 |
+$104.88 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.83 | 312 | $5,252.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $17.19 | 312 | $5,361.88 | $5,378.40 |
+$109.36 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $17.56 | 306 | $5,371.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 12:00pm ET | $17.92 | 306 | $5,483.52 | $5,490.09 |
+$111.69 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:45pm ET | $17.12 | 320 | $5,478.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.50 | 320 | $5,280.00 | $5,291.69 |
$-198.40 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $16.67 | 317 | $5,285.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.14 | 317 | $5,114.80 | $5,120.51 |
$-171.18 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $15.98 | 320 | $5,112.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $16.34 | 320 | $5,228.80 | $5,237.31 |
+$116.80 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.40 | 340 | $5,236.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.70 | 340 | $4,997.97 | $4,999.28 |
$-238.03 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $14.94 | 334 | $4,989.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $14.49 | 334 | $4,839.66 | $4,848.98 |
$-150.30 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $14.34 | 338 | $4,846.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $13.88 | 338 | $4,691.44 | $4,693.50 |
$-155.48 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $14.09 | 333 | $4,690.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $14.43 | 333 | $4,803.53 | $4,806.72 |
+$113.22 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $14.73 | 326 | $4,800.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.06 | 326 | $4,581.93 | $4,588.30 |
$-218.42 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.27 | 345 | $4,578.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.80 | 345 | $4,414.28 | $4,424.42 |
$-163.88 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 12:45pm ET | $13.56 | 326 | $4,418.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.85 | 326 | $4,515.10 | $4,520.59 |
+$96.17 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $14.18 | 318 | $4,507.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.56 | 318 | $4,630.08 | $4,643.02 |
+$122.43 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $14.74 | 314 | $4,629.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $15.09 | 314 | $4,736.69 | $4,749.78 |
+$106.76 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $16.23 | 292 | $4,737.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:45pm ET | $16.58 | 292 | $4,842.82 | $4,854.90 |
+$105.12 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $17.09 | 284 | $4,854.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $17.45 | 284 | $4,957.22 | $4,957.62 |
+$102.72 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $18.06 | 274 | $4,947.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $18.42 | 274 | $5,048.45 | $5,059.00 |
+$101.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.32 | 310 | $5,057.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.68 | 310 | $5,170.80 | $5,172.15 |
+$113.15 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $16.18 | 319 | $5,161.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $15.59 | 319 | $4,973.21 | $4,983.94 |
$-188.21 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $15.24 | 326 | $4,969.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 3:45pm ET | $14.75 | 326 | $4,808.50 | $4,822.57 |
$-161.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.74 | 306 | $4,816.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 12:40pm ET | $16.08 | 306 | $4,921.55 | $4,927.68 |
+$105.11 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 1:55pm ET | $16.78 | 293 | $4,916.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.13 | 293 | $4,725.30 | $4,736.44 |
$-191.24 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $16.19 | 292 | $4,727.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $16.56 | 292 | $4,834.06 | $4,843.02 |
+$106.58 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 1:00pm ET | $16.14 | 300 | $4,840.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $16.48 | 300 | $4,944.00 | $4,946.52 |
+$103.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,946.52
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,053.48
Total Return:
-50.53%