SMCI Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 34 trades in period
+35.48%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,291.66
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$6,858.54
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
12.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 12.0
30-Day Momentum
67
+22.7%
30d Return
82%
Win Rate
11
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 74.0
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+55 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,781
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,858.54
Current Value
$9,291.66
Period P&L
$2,433.12
Max Drawdown
-63.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
23 /
11
Best Trade
+11.17%
Worst Trade
-8.62%
Avg Trade Return
+0.86%
Avg Hold Time
18.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$527,353.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,433.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,433.12
Gross Return
+35.48%
Net Return (after fees)
+35.48%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,858.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $34.08 | 208 | $7,087.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.86 | 208 | $6,834.88 | $6,858.55 |
$-252.72 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $33.93 | 202 | $6,852.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $33.92 | 202 | $6,851.82 | $6,857.48 |
$-1.07 (-0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $29.67 | 231 | $6,853.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $30.45 | 231 | $7,033.95 | $7,037.66 |
+$180.18 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 12:30pm ET | $30.31 | 232 | $7,031.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:20pm ET | $29.36 | 232 | $6,811.52 | $6,817.26 |
$-220.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $31.75 | 214 | $6,794.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:35am ET | $32.50 | 214 | $6,955.00 | $6,977.78 |
+$160.52 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $31.28 | 223 | $6,975.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $32.04 | 223 | $7,144.92 | $7,147.26 |
+$169.48 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $31.79 | 224 | $7,121.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $32.43 | 224 | $7,264.32 | $7,290.28 |
+$143.02 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $31.12 | 234 | $7,281.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 12:05pm ET | $31.76 | 234 | $7,433.01 | $7,442.19 |
+$151.91 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $30.43 | 244 | $7,426.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $31.14 | 244 | $7,598.16 | $7,614.21 |
+$172.02 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $32.44 | 234 | $7,591.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $33.10 | 234 | $7,746.57 | $7,769.59 |
+$155.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $31.64 | 245 | $7,751.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 12:00pm ET | $32.36 | 245 | $7,928.18 | $7,946.43 |
+$176.84 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $31.11 | 255 | $7,934.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $31.91 | 255 | $8,136.06 | $8,148.16 |
+$201.73 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $31.90 | 255 | $8,134.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.76 | 255 | $8,355.07 | $8,368.76 |
+$220.60 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.65 | 264 | $8,355.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $30.53 | 264 | $8,061.24 | $8,074.40 |
$-294.36 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $31.68 | 254 | $8,047.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.45 | 254 | $8,242.30 | $8,268.81 |
+$194.41 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.21 | 264 | $8,239.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.05 | 264 | $7,933.20 | $7,962.57 |
$-306.24 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $22.41 | 355 | $7,953.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $21.67 | 355 | $7,693.56 | $7,702.35 |
$-260.21 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:15pm ET | $21.84 | 352 | $7,689.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $21.12 | 352 | $7,434.24 | $7,447.15 |
$-255.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $23.45 | 317 | $7,435.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:45am ET | $24.06 | 317 | $7,625.44 | $7,637.35 |
+$190.20 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $22.37 | 341 | $7,628.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $21.60 | 341 | $7,365.60 | $7,374.78 |
$-262.57 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $21.75 | 339 | $7,371.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:10pm ET | $21.08 | 339 | $7,147.81 | $7,151.04 |
$-223.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 3:45pm ET | $22.50 | 317 | $7,132.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.11 | 317 | $7,327.23 | $7,345.77 |
+$194.73 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.02 | 333 | $7,334.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $22.70 | 333 | $7,560.76 | $7,572.21 |
+$226.44 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $22.49 | 336 | $7,556.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.03 | 336 | $8,074.08 | $8,089.65 |
+$517.44 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $23.44 | 345 | $8,086.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.94 | 345 | $8,261.02 | $8,263.87 |
+$174.22 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $24.51 | 337 | $8,261.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $25.00 | 337 | $8,426.68 | $8,429.34 |
+$165.47 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $27.28 | 308 | $8,402.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $27.91 | 308 | $8,596.28 | $8,623.38 |
+$194.04 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $28.33 | 304 | $8,613.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.08 | 304 | $8,840.32 | $8,849.86 |
+$226.48 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $29.01 | 305 | $8,848.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 305 | $8,085.55 | $8,087.33 |
$-762.53 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $28.17 | 287 | $8,086.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $28.92 | 287 | $8,298.61 | $8,299.74 |
+$212.41 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $27.91 | 297 | $8,289.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.73 | 297 | $7,937.33 | $7,947.80 |
$-351.94 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $25.88 | 307 | $7,945.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $26.49 | 307 | $8,130.90 | $8,133.54 |
+$185.74 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $27.35 | 297 | $8,122.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $28.11 | 297 | $8,348.67 | $8,359.26 |
+$225.72 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $28.21 | 296 | $8,350.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 296 | $9,282.56 | $9,291.66 |
+$932.40 (+11.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,291.66
Net Profit/Loss:
$-708.34
Total Return:
-7.08%