SMCI Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 37 trades in period
+11.14%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,560.57
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$7,702.35
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
11.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 11.6
30-Day Momentum
12
-4.4%
30d Return
46%
Win Rate
13
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 12.3
Conf: 0.95×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$7,702.35
Current Value
$8,560.57
Period P&L
$858.22
Max Drawdown
-63.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
21 /
16
Best Trade
+11.17%
Worst Trade
-8.62%
Avg Trade Return
+0.37%
Avg Hold Time
18.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$647,283.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$858.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$858.22
Gross Return
+11.14%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.14%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,702.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:15pm ET | $21.84 | 352 | $7,689.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $21.12 | 352 | $7,434.24 | $7,447.15 |
$-255.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $23.45 | 317 | $7,435.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:45am ET | $24.06 | 317 | $7,625.44 | $7,637.35 |
+$190.20 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $22.37 | 341 | $7,628.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $21.60 | 341 | $7,365.60 | $7,374.78 |
$-262.57 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $21.75 | 339 | $7,371.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:10pm ET | $21.08 | 339 | $7,147.81 | $7,151.04 |
$-223.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 3:45pm ET | $22.50 | 317 | $7,132.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.11 | 317 | $7,327.23 | $7,345.77 |
+$194.73 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.02 | 333 | $7,334.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $22.70 | 333 | $7,560.76 | $7,572.21 |
+$226.44 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $22.49 | 336 | $7,556.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.03 | 336 | $8,074.08 | $8,089.65 |
+$517.44 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $23.44 | 345 | $8,086.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.94 | 345 | $8,261.02 | $8,263.87 |
+$174.22 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $24.51 | 337 | $8,261.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $25.00 | 337 | $8,426.68 | $8,429.34 |
+$165.47 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $27.28 | 308 | $8,402.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $27.91 | 308 | $8,596.28 | $8,623.38 |
+$194.04 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $28.33 | 304 | $8,613.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.08 | 304 | $8,840.32 | $8,849.86 |
+$226.48 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $29.01 | 305 | $8,848.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 305 | $8,085.55 | $8,087.33 |
$-762.53 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $28.17 | 287 | $8,086.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $28.92 | 287 | $8,298.61 | $8,299.74 |
+$212.41 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $27.91 | 297 | $8,289.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.73 | 297 | $7,937.33 | $7,947.80 |
$-351.94 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $25.88 | 307 | $7,945.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:15pm ET | $26.49 | 307 | $8,130.90 | $8,133.54 |
+$185.74 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:30pm ET | $27.35 | 297 | $8,122.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $28.11 | 297 | $8,348.67 | $8,359.26 |
+$225.72 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $28.21 | 296 | $8,350.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 296 | $9,282.56 | $9,291.66 |
+$932.40 (+11.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $34.94 | 265 | $9,259.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:20pm ET | $33.84 | 265 | $8,967.60 | $9,000.16 |
$-291.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $34.63 | 259 | $8,969.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.16 | 259 | $9,365.96 | $9,396.87 |
+$396.71 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $32.79 | 286 | $9,379.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $31.66 | 286 | $9,054.76 | $9,072.26 |
$-324.61 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $32.13 | 282 | $9,060.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 10:15am ET | $32.91 | 282 | $9,280.62 | $9,291.94 |
+$219.68 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $31.02 | 299 | $9,274.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $30.06 | 299 | $8,987.94 | $9,004.90 |
$-287.04 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $30.22 | 298 | $9,004.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 12:45pm ET | $31.01 | 298 | $9,242.47 | $9,243.27 |
+$238.37 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $33.32 | 277 | $9,229.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $32.28 | 277 | $8,940.18 | $8,953.83 |
$-289.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $35.00 | 255 | $8,925.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:35pm ET | $35.82 | 255 | $9,134.10 | $9,162.19 |
+$208.36 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $37.45 | 244 | $9,137.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $38.20 | 244 | $9,320.82 | $9,345.21 |
+$183.02 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 1:40pm ET | $41.94 | 222 | $9,310.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.36 | 222 | $9,847.92 | $9,882.45 |
+$537.24 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:20pm ET | $47.81 | 206 | $9,849.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.65 | 206 | $10,433.90 | $10,466.46 |
+$584.01 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.94 | 213 | $10,425.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $46.63 | 213 | $9,932.19 | $9,973.37 |
$-493.09 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $45.72 | 218 | $9,966.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $46.77 | 218 | $10,195.86 | $10,202.27 |
+$228.90 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $43.08 | 236 | $10,166.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:15pm ET | $41.76 | 236 | $9,855.36 | $9,890.77 |
$-311.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $44.19 | 223 | $9,853.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $42.82 | 223 | $9,548.86 | $9,586.37 |
$-304.40 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $35.45 | 270 | $9,571.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $34.30 | 270 | $9,261.00 | $9,275.87 |
$-310.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 11:00am ET | $28.91 | 320 | $9,249.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 11:20am ET | $29.49 | 320 | $9,435.20 | $9,461.47 |
+$185.60 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 11:20am ET | $31.14 | 303 | $9,435.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $30.18 | 303 | $9,146.05 | $9,172.11 |
$-289.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $31.13 | 294 | $9,152.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $30.00 | 294 | $8,820.00 | $8,839.89 |
$-332.22 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $29.26 | 302 | $8,836.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:20pm ET | $28.33 | 302 | $8,557.17 | $8,560.57 |
$-279.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,560.57
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,439.43
Total Return:
-14.39%