SOXL Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 41 trades in period
-4.50%
Last 3 Months Return
$20,867.43
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$21,851.69
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
43
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.5/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
7.6/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
43.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 43.4
30-Day Momentum
25
+2.2%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 26.1
Conf: 0.98×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$21,851.69
Current Value
$20,867.43
Period P&L
$-984.21
Max Drawdown
-33.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
23 /
18
Best Trade
+10.66%
Worst Trade
-15.52%
Avg Trade Return
+0.01%
Avg Hold Time
15.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,654,372.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-984.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$-984.21
Gross Return
-4.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $21,851.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $56.10 | 389 | $21,820.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $54.30 | 389 | $21,122.70 | $21,153.38 |
$-698.26 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $54.97 | 384 | $21,108.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.46 | 384 | $21,680.64 | $21,725.54 |
+$572.16 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.13 | 401 | $21,706.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:45am ET | $52.22 | 401 | $20,942.22 | $20,961.63 |
$-763.91 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:05pm ET | $48.21 | 434 | $20,920.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 1:45pm ET | $46.60 | 434 | $20,223.31 | $20,263.97 |
$-697.66 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $40.42 | 501 | $20,247.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.83 | 501 | $21,455.33 | $21,471.38 |
+$1,207.41 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $53.02 | 404 | $21,420.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.12 | 404 | $19,036.48 | $19,087.74 |
$-2,383.64 (-11.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $54.53 | 350 | $19,085.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $52.67 | 350 | $18,434.50 | $18,436.70 |
$-651.04 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:45pm ET | $66.85 | 275 | $18,383.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.78 | 275 | $18,914.53 | $18,967.48 |
+$530.78 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $76.84 | 246 | $18,902.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:50pm ET | $78.54 | 246 | $19,320.84 | $19,385.68 |
+$418.20 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $84.07 | 230 | $19,336.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $81.39 | 230 | $18,718.55 | $18,768.13 |
$-617.55 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $87.92 | 213 | $18,726.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $92.75 | 213 | $19,755.75 | $19,796.92 |
+$1,028.79 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $93.82 | 211 | $19,796.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $95.77 | 211 | $20,207.47 | $20,208.37 |
+$411.45 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:20pm ET | $99.11 | 203 | $20,119.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $102.94 | 203 | $20,896.82 | $20,985.86 |
+$777.49 (+3.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $115.87 | 181 | $20,972.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $111.49 | 181 | $20,178.79 | $20,192.17 |
$-793.69 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $128.47 | 157 | $20,169.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $122.00 | 157 | $19,154.47 | $19,176.85 |
$-1,015.32 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $110.35 | 173 | $19,090.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $106.09 | 173 | $18,353.57 | $18,439.89 |
$-736.96 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $116.46 | 158 | $18,399.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.85 | 158 | $19,252.30 | $19,292.30 |
+$852.41 (+4.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:10pm ET | $128.43 | 150 | $19,264.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $131.08 | 150 | $19,662.00 | $19,689.80 |
+$397.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $140.63 | 140 | $19,688.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $143.74 | 140 | $20,124.30 | $20,125.20 |
+$435.40 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $158.16 | 127 | $20,086.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:30am ET | $161.45 | 127 | $20,504.15 | $20,543.04 |
+$417.84 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 1:20pm ET | $174.78 | 117 | $20,449.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.36 | 117 | $21,219.12 | $21,312.58 |
+$769.54 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $168.50 | 126 | $21,231.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $162.43 | 126 | $20,466.19 | $20,547.76 |
$-764.82 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $180.85 | 113 | $20,436.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $184.62 | 113 | $20,862.06 | $20,973.77 |
+$426.01 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:20pm ET | $182.65 | 114 | $20,822.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 1:50pm ET | $186.38 | 114 | $21,247.32 | $21,398.42 |
+$424.65 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 2:35pm ET | $170.20 | 125 | $21,274.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $165.00 | 125 | $20,625.01 | $20,748.45 |
$-649.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $142.33 | 145 | $20,637.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $136.84 | 145 | $19,841.80 | $19,952.40 |
$-796.05 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $168.52 | 118 | $19,885.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $172.44 | 118 | $20,347.92 | $20,414.96 |
+$462.56 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $192.36 | 106 | $20,390.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $212.87 | 106 | $22,564.22 | $22,589.02 |
+$2,174.06 (+10.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $215.85 | 104 | $22,448.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $207.94 | 104 | $21,625.76 | $21,766.37 |
$-822.65 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $230.91 | 94 | $21,705.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $237.45 | 94 | $22,320.30 | $22,381.28 |
+$614.91 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $218.51 | 102 | $22,288.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $211.67 | 102 | $21,590.34 | $21,683.59 |
$-697.69 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $252.56 | 85 | $21,467.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $258.76 | 85 | $21,994.60 | $22,210.59 |
+$527.00 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $274.69 | 80 | $21,975.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET | $280.95 | 80 | $22,476.00 | $22,711.39 |
+$500.80 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $270.47 | 83 | $22,449.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.50 | 83 | $18,965.50 | $19,227.88 |
$-3,483.51 (-15.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $208.93 | 92 | $19,221.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $202.06 | 92 | $18,589.53 | $18,595.49 |
$-632.39 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $222.80 | 83 | $18,492.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $214.91 | 83 | $17,837.94 | $17,941.03 |
$-654.46 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $202.45 | 88 | $17,815.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $207.49 | 88 | $18,258.91 | $18,384.34 |
+$443.31 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $199.97 | 91 | $18,197.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:20pm ET | $193.95 | 91 | $17,649.46 | $17,836.53 |
$-547.81 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:00pm ET | $240.22 | 74 | $17,776.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.52 | 74 | $19,574.11 | $19,634.36 |
+$1,797.83 (+10.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $265.45 | 73 | $19,377.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $272.22 | 73 | $19,872.15 | $20,129.02 |
+$494.66 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $244.99 | 82 | $20,088.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:40pm ET | $253.99 | 82 | $20,827.18 | $20,867.43 |
+$738.41 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,867.43
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,867.43
Total Return:
+108.67%