Compendium › Rebel Contraire › SPXU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPXU
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 28 trades in period

-1.37%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,515.85
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$10,662.44
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:22:07

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
6.6/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 19.4/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 19.2

30-Day Momentum

13
+0.0%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.9 Conf: 0.81×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,662.44
Current Value
$10,515.85
Period P&L
$-146.59
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
16 / 12
Best Trade
+3.78%
Worst Trade
-5.68%
Avg Trade Return
-0.01%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$596,115.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-146.59
Net P&L (after fees)
$-146.59
Gross Return
-1.37%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.37%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,662.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 10:15am ET $54.83 194 $10,636.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 12:00pm ET $55.94 194 $10,851.39 $10,877.78 +$215.34
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 1:30pm ET $56.67 191 $10,823.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $54.67 191 $10,441.97 $10,495.78 $-382.00
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET $56.23 186 $10,458.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:50pm ET $57.36 186 $10,668.96 $10,705.96 +$210.18
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3h held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:50pm ET $59.93 178 $10,667.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $61.22 178 $10,897.14 $10,935.56 +$229.60
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET $62.39 175 $10,918.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $59.95 175 $10,491.25 $10,508.56 $-427.00
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET $55.53 189 $10,495.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $57.63 189 $10,892.07 $10,905.46 +$396.90
(+3.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $55.22 197 $10,878.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET $56.47 197 $11,124.59 $11,151.71 +$246.25
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET $50.68 220 $11,149.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 11:55am ET $49.76 220 $10,948.30 $10,950.41 $-201.30
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 12:25pm ET $46.74 234 $10,936.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $45.27 234 $10,593.18 $10,607.02 $-343.39
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET $44.13 240 $10,592.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET $43.79 240 $10,509.60 $10,524.22 $-82.80
(-0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:25am ET $43.44 242 $10,512.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $44.33 242 $10,726.65 $10,738.39 +$214.17
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:45pm ET $42.98 249 $10,702.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $43.85 249 $10,918.65 $10,955.00 +$216.61
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:30pm ET $42.58 257 $10,941.78 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:00am ET $41.21 257 $10,590.97 $10,604.19 $-350.81
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
14 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:20am ET $41.67 254 $10,584.18 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET $42.68 254 $10,840.72 $10,860.73 +$256.54
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
15 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $41.29 263 $10,860.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:35am ET $40.05 263 $10,533.15 $10,533.30 $-327.43
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
16 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:40am ET $39.36 267 $10,509.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 1:30pm ET $40.15 267 $10,721.38 $10,745.08 +$211.78
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
17 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 1:30pm ET $38.99 275 $10,722.31 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 11:20am ET $39.78 275 $10,940.87 $10,963.65 +$218.57
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
18 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:35am ET $38.74 282 $10,926.09 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:50am ET $37.55 282 $10,589.10 $10,626.66 $-336.99
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
19 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $38.49 276 $10,623.24 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:20am ET $39.29 276 $10,844.04 $10,847.46 +$220.80
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
20 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:45am ET $39.73 273 $10,846.29 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 3:35pm ET $38.50 273 $10,510.50 $10,511.67 $-335.79
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
21 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 9:35am ET $37.67 279 $10,509.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:35am ET $37.12 279 $10,356.70 $10,358.41 $-153.26
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
22 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 10:00am ET $37.19 278 $10,337.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $36.06 278 $10,023.29 $10,044.27 $-314.14
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 2:50pm ET $36.02 278 $10,013.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 12:35pm ET $36.76 278 $10,219.25 $10,249.96 +$205.69
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 1:50pm ET $36.26 282 $10,225.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $36.99 282 $10,431.18 $10,455.82 +$205.86
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 12:20pm ET $38.19 273 $10,424.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 3:25pm ET $39.02 273 $10,652.46 $10,683.77 +$227.95
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:40pm ET $40.07 266 $10,658.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:15pm ET $40.94 266 $10,888.71 $10,913.86 +$230.09
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 3:20pm ET $39.12 279 $10,913.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $36.90 279 $10,293.71 $10,294.48 $-619.38
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET $36.40 282 $10,263.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET $37.18 282 $10,484.76 $10,515.85 +$221.37
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,515.85
Net Profit/Loss: +$515.85
Total Return: +5.16%
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