Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:27:06

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 11.8/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 11.7

30-Day Momentum

33
+5.2%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.4 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,314.91
Current Value
$6,692.21
Period P&L
$377.33
Max Drawdown
-41.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
18 / 12
Best Trade
+6.93%
Worst Trade
-5.47%
Avg Trade Return
+0.25%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$359,640.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$377.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$377.33
Gross Return
+5.98%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $6,314.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:20pm ET $45.04 140 $6,305.60
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $43.57 140 $6,099.80 $6,109.08 $-205.80
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:50am ET $44.54 137 $6,101.99
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $43.20 137 $5,918.40 $5,925.49 $-183.59
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET $39.65 149 $5,908.30
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET $38.44 149 $5,726.82 $5,744.01 $-181.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $43.39 132 $5,727.96
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $41.02 132 $5,414.64 $5,430.69 $-313.32
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:20am ET $43.82 123 $5,389.86
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET $42.33 123 $5,206.58 $5,247.41 $-183.28
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:35am ET $47.74 109 $5,204.20
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $48.85 109 $5,324.94 $5,368.15 +$120.74
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $49.08 109 $5,350.26
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 2:55pm ET $50.14 109 $5,465.26 $5,483.15 +$115.00
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $54.58 100 $5,458.14
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $56.11 100 $5,611.00 $5,636.01 +$152.86
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:25am ET $58.02 97 $5,627.94
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 10:15am ET $59.28 97 $5,749.68 $5,757.75 +$121.74
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET $60.42 95 $5,739.43
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET $58.58 95 $5,565.57 $5,583.90 $-173.85
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:05pm ET $62.45 89 $5,558.18
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:35am ET $60.53 89 $5,387.18 $5,412.90 $-171.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $60.71 89 $5,403.18
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $62.73 89 $5,582.97 $5,592.69 +$179.79
(+3.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held
13 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 10:35am ET $65.11 85 $5,533.93
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:35am ET $66.66 85 $5,666.10 $5,724.87 +$132.18
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
14 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 11:15am ET $70.28 81 $5,692.28
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $71.89 81 $5,822.69 $5,855.28 +$130.41
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
15 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 11:15am ET $74.86 78 $5,839.47
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:35am ET $76.75 78 $5,986.28 $6,002.09 +$146.81
(+2.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
16 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:30am ET $74.07 81 $5,999.27
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $71.78 81 $5,813.78 $5,816.60 $-185.49
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
17 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 2:35pm ET $77.76 74 $5,754.24
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 11:15am ET $79.34 74 $5,871.16 $5,933.52 +$116.92
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
18 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 11:50am ET $75.43 78 $5,883.54
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 1:35pm ET $77.00 78 $6,005.61 $6,055.59 +$122.07
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
19 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 2:10pm ET $72.96 82 $5,983.13
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:45am ET $74.69 82 $6,124.58 $6,197.04 +$141.45
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
20 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:20am ET $74.83 82 $6,136.06
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:20pm ET $76.86 82 $6,302.53 $6,363.51 +$166.47
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3h held
21 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $78.51 81 $6,359.71
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $80.67 81 $6,534.27 $6,538.06 +$174.55
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
22 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:05am ET $80.72 80 $6,458.00
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:15am ET $82.57 80 $6,605.20 $6,685.26 +$147.20
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held
23 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:15am ET $84.93 78 $6,624.55
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 1:45pm ET $86.79 78 $6,770.01 $6,830.72 +$145.46
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 2:00pm ET $86.50 78 $6,747.00
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET $83.11 78 $6,482.52 $6,566.24 $-264.48
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET $80.67 81 $6,533.87
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:00pm ET $78.06 81 $6,322.46 $6,354.84 $-211.40
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $77.17 82 $6,327.93
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET $78.78 82 $6,459.66 $6,486.56 +$131.72
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:45am ET $73.17 88 $6,438.96
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET $70.61 88 $6,213.62 $6,261.22 $-225.34
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $71.65 87 $6,233.55
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $73.94 87 $6,433.21 $6,460.88 +$199.66
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:10pm ET $77.51 83 $6,433.32
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $82.88 83 $6,879.04 $6,906.60 +$445.72
(+6.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET $82.86 83 $6,877.63
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $80.28 83 $6,663.24 $6,692.21 $-214.39
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,692.21
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,307.79
Total Return: -33.08%
Back to Rebel Contraire