TSLA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 31 trades in period
+17.88%
Last 3 Months Return
$13,530.45
Current Value
65%
Win Rate
$11,478.45
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
29
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.3/35
Total Return
13.0/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
29.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 29.3
30-Day Momentum
21
+0.9%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.0
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$11,478.45
Current Value
$13,530.45
Period P&L
$2,051.99
Max Drawdown
-37.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
20 /
11
Best Trade
+6.56%
Worst Trade
-4.35%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
1.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$779,430.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,051.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,051.99
Gross Return
+17.88%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.88%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $11,478.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $383.29 | 29 | $11,115.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $394.00 | 29 | $11,426.00 | $11,789.05 |
+$310.59 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $380.83 | 30 | $11,424.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.52 | 30 | $11,055.75 | $11,420.05 |
$-369.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $362.22 | 31 | $11,228.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $369.75 | 31 | $11,462.25 | $11,653.48 |
+$233.43 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET | $380.78 | 30 | $11,423.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.39 | 30 | $10,931.69 | $11,161.77 |
$-491.71 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $363.17 | 30 | $10,895.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $351.37 | 30 | $10,541.10 | $10,807.77 |
$-354.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $341.45 | 31 | $10,584.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.84 | 31 | $11,279.04 | $11,501.92 |
+$694.15 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $338.61 | 33 | $11,174.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $347.49 | 33 | $11,467.17 | $11,794.80 |
+$292.88 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $343.68 | 34 | $11,685.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $353.57 | 34 | $12,021.38 | $12,131.06 |
+$336.26 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $358.18 | 33 | $11,819.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $365.93 | 33 | $12,075.69 | $12,386.81 |
+$255.75 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:35pm ET | $391.35 | 31 | $12,131.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $401.28 | 31 | $12,439.68 | $12,694.56 |
+$307.75 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $390.69 | 32 | $12,502.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.69 | 32 | $11,958.08 | $12,150.56 |
$-544.00 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $374.92 | 32 | $11,997.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $373.41 | 32 | $11,949.12 | $12,102.08 |
$-48.48 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $376.98 | 32 | $12,063.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $385.67 | 32 | $12,341.40 | $12,379.96 |
+$277.88 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $388.95 | 31 | $12,057.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $399.62 | 31 | $12,388.22 | $12,710.73 |
+$330.77 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $387.74 | 32 | $12,407.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $396.47 | 32 | $12,687.04 | $12,990.09 |
+$279.36 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 1:15pm ET | $405.93 | 32 | $12,989.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $417.67 | 32 | $13,365.60 | $13,365.93 |
+$375.84 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $419.74 | 31 | $13,011.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $430.84 | 31 | $13,356.04 | $13,710.03 |
+$344.10 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $428.87 | 31 | $13,294.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $438.03 | 31 | $13,578.93 | $13,993.99 |
+$283.96 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $449.11 | 31 | $13,922.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $433.71 | 31 | $13,445.01 | $13,516.56 |
$-477.43 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $418.82 | 32 | $13,402.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $406.01 | 32 | $12,992.36 | $13,106.68 |
$-409.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $402.62 | 32 | $12,883.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $411.92 | 32 | $13,181.44 | $13,404.28 |
+$297.60 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $421.92 | 31 | $13,079.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 1:40pm ET | $430.96 | 31 | $13,359.62 | $13,684.38 |
+$280.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $430.88 | 31 | $13,357.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $442.62 | 31 | $13,721.15 | $14,048.25 |
+$363.87 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $437.91 | 32 | $14,013.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $424.59 | 32 | $13,586.88 | $13,622.01 |
$-426.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $421.81 | 32 | $13,497.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $430.67 | 32 | $13,781.50 | $13,905.59 |
+$283.58 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:35am ET | $418.21 | 33 | $13,801.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $405.39 | 33 | $13,377.87 | $13,482.37 |
$-423.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:20am ET | $402.20 | 33 | $13,272.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $410.47 | 33 | $13,545.48 | $13,755.25 |
+$272.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $395.61 | 34 | $13,450.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $382.72 | 34 | $13,012.48 | $13,316.99 |
$-438.26 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 12:50pm ET | $385.54 | 34 | $13,108.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $393.95 | 34 | $13,394.30 | $13,602.93 |
+$285.94 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $401.60 | 33 | $13,252.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $412.36 | 33 | $13,607.88 | $13,958.17 |
+$355.24 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $407.02 | 34 | $13,838.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $394.44 | 34 | $13,410.96 | $13,530.45 |
$-427.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,530.45
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,530.45
Total Return:
+35.30%