AXP Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 37 trades in period
+14.74%
Last 6 Months Return
$19,960.51
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$17,395.79
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
60
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
25.3/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
3.5/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
60.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 60.1
30-Day Momentum
30
+4.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 40.0
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,279
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$17,395.79
Current Value
$19,960.51
Period P&L
$2,564.71
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
22 /
15
Best Trade
+5.20%
Worst Trade
-6.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.40%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,300,609.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,564.71
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,564.71
Gross Return
+14.74%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.74%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $17,395.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 11:15am ET | $378.49 | 46 | $17,410.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 11:15am ET | $381.00 | 46 | $17,526.00 | $17,571.54 |
+$115.46 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:40am ET | $383.21 | 45 | $17,244.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 11:40am ET | $376.65 | 45 | $16,949.25 | $17,276.34 |
$-295.20 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 12:05pm ET | $373.56 | 46 | $17,183.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $376.79 | 46 | $17,332.22 | $17,424.61 |
+$148.28 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $383.87 | 45 | $17,274.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.55 | 45 | $16,179.75 | $16,330.21 |
$-1,094.40 (-6.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $358.42 | 45 | $16,128.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 11:35am ET | $365.77 | 45 | $16,459.65 | $16,660.96 |
+$330.75 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $356.12 | 46 | $16,381.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.74 | 46 | $16,824.04 | $17,103.48 |
+$442.52 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:10am ET | $361.45 | 47 | $16,988.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $359.95 | 47 | $16,917.42 | $17,032.74 |
$-70.73 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $357.61 | 47 | $16,807.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $346.78 | 47 | $16,298.43 | $16,523.73 |
$-509.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $352.17 | 46 | $16,199.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $359.82 | 46 | $16,551.72 | $16,875.63 |
+$351.90 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:45pm ET | $361.05 | 46 | $16,608.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $368.43 | 46 | $16,947.78 | $17,214.88 |
+$339.25 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:15pm ET | $344.39 | 49 | $16,875.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $343.00 | 49 | $16,807.00 | $17,146.86 |
$-68.02 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $317.67 | 53 | $16,836.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $324.08 | 53 | $17,176.24 | $17,486.32 |
+$339.46 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $333.85 | 52 | $17,360.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $320.53 | 52 | $16,667.56 | $16,793.68 |
$-692.64 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $303.89 | 55 | $16,713.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:30pm ET | $310.19 | 55 | $17,060.45 | $17,140.45 |
+$346.77 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $308.00 | 55 | $16,940.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $297.35 | 55 | $16,354.25 | $16,554.70 |
$-585.75 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $297.46 | 55 | $16,360.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $304.55 | 55 | $16,750.25 | $16,944.37 |
+$389.67 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $303.20 | 55 | $16,676.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.96 | 55 | $16,608.07 | $16,876.44 |
$-67.93 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $302.26 | 55 | $16,624.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.26 | 55 | $16,074.03 | $16,326.16 |
$-550.28 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $293.76 | 55 | $16,156.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.79 | 55 | $16,653.35 | $16,822.99 |
+$496.83 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.23 | 56 | $16,757.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.29 | 56 | $17,096.24 | $17,162.07 |
+$339.08 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $299.70 | 57 | $17,082.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $299.19 | 57 | $17,053.83 | $17,133.00 |
$-29.07 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $301.00 | 56 | $16,856.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $303.38 | 56 | $16,989.28 | $17,266.28 |
+$133.28 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $303.87 | 56 | $17,016.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $319.66 | 56 | $17,900.96 | $18,150.52 |
+$884.24 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $314.05 | 57 | $17,900.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 2:05pm ET | $320.61 | 57 | $18,275.05 | $18,524.73 |
+$374.21 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:15pm ET | $327.49 | 56 | $18,339.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $334.93 | 56 | $18,756.36 | $18,941.65 |
+$416.92 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $332.04 | 57 | $18,926.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $322.02 | 57 | $18,355.14 | $18,370.51 |
$-571.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $314.87 | 58 | $18,262.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.91 | 58 | $18,728.78 | $18,836.83 |
+$466.32 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $314.29 | 59 | $18,543.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $320.86 | 59 | $18,930.74 | $19,224.46 |
+$387.63 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $321.64 | 59 | $18,976.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $321.37 | 59 | $18,960.83 | $19,208.53 |
$-15.93 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $320.07 | 60 | $19,203.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:55am ET | $313.55 | 60 | $18,813.00 | $18,817.63 |
$-390.90 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $309.35 | 60 | $18,561.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $315.54 | 60 | $18,932.40 | $19,189.03 |
+$371.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $311.80 | 61 | $19,019.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $314.04 | 61 | $19,156.44 | $19,325.97 |
+$136.94 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:45am ET | $313.53 | 61 | $19,125.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $311.91 | 61 | $19,026.51 | $19,227.15 |
$-98.82 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $310.89 | 61 | $18,964.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $301.27 | 61 | $18,377.17 | $18,639.72 |
$-587.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $312.31 | 59 | $18,426.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $321.64 | 59 | $18,976.47 | $19,189.90 |
+$550.18 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $317.30 | 60 | $19,038.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $323.66 | 60 | $19,419.60 | $19,571.20 |
+$381.30 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:10pm ET | $338.27 | 57 | $19,281.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $345.10 | 57 | $19,670.70 | $19,960.51 |
+$389.31 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,960.51
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,960.51
Total Return:
+99.61%