DIS Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 35 trades in period
-8.33%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,792.19
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$9,591.20
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
8
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
8.2/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 8.2
30-Day Momentum
2
-4.2%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,100
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,591.20
Current Value
$8,792.19
Period P&L
$-798.98
Max Drawdown
-25.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
15 /
20
Best Trade
+2.48%
Worst Trade
-5.27%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$657,442.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-798.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-798.98
Gross Return
-8.33%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.33%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,591.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 12:05pm ET | $111.56 | 86 | $9,593.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.24 | 86 | $9,566.21 | $9,638.04 |
$-27.52 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:50am ET | $113.05 | 85 | $9,609.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $115.81 | 85 | $9,843.85 | $9,872.64 |
+$234.60 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 10:35am ET | $106.88 | 92 | $9,832.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 10:35am ET | $106.10 | 92 | $9,760.92 | $9,800.61 |
$-72.04 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:35am ET | $106.70 | 91 | $9,709.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:25pm ET | $103.45 | 91 | $9,413.50 | $9,504.86 |
$-295.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:50pm ET | $104.33 | 91 | $9,493.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 12:50pm ET | $103.76 | 91 | $9,442.07 | $9,453.35 |
$-51.51 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 12:50pm ET | $104.14 | 90 | $9,372.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:40am ET | $106.36 | 90 | $9,571.95 | $9,653.15 |
+$199.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 9:40am ET | $105.10 | 91 | $9,564.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $105.32 | 91 | $9,583.67 | $9,672.71 |
+$19.57 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:30am ET | $106.81 | 90 | $9,612.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 2:50pm ET | $109.04 | 90 | $9,813.60 | $9,873.86 |
+$201.15 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:20am ET | $112.66 | 87 | $9,801.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:20am ET | $111.84 | 87 | $9,730.19 | $9,802.42 |
$-71.44 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 12:00pm ET | $112.45 | 87 | $9,783.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 12:00pm ET | $112.44 | 87 | $9,782.28 | $9,801.55 |
$-0.87 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 9:45am ET | $113.85 | 86 | $9,791.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:45am ET | $114.08 | 86 | $9,810.88 | $9,821.33 |
+$19.78 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $112.15 | 87 | $9,757.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $114.42 | 87 | $9,954.11 | $10,018.39 |
+$197.06 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $114.43 | 87 | $9,955.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.78 | 87 | $9,898.43 | $9,961.40 |
$-56.99 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $112.41 | 88 | $9,892.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $109.00 | 88 | $9,592.01 | $9,661.33 |
$-300.07 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $111.27 | 86 | $9,569.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.96 | 86 | $9,800.56 | $9,892.67 |
+$231.34 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $111.48 | 88 | $9,810.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $110.74 | 88 | $9,745.12 | $9,827.55 |
$-65.12 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:40pm ET | $110.89 | 88 | $9,758.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $105.05 | 88 | $9,244.40 | $9,313.63 |
$-513.92 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $102.90 | 90 | $9,261.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $105.11 | 90 | $9,459.90 | $9,512.53 |
+$198.90 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $105.78 | 89 | $9,414.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:40am ET | $107.92 | 89 | $9,605.32 | $9,703.42 |
+$190.90 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:45pm ET | $107.61 | 90 | $9,684.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $110.01 | 90 | $9,900.90 | $9,919.43 |
+$216.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $106.11 | 93 | $9,868.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $104.41 | 93 | $9,710.13 | $9,761.25 |
$-158.18 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $106.43 | 91 | $9,685.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $103.39 | 91 | $9,408.49 | $9,484.61 |
$-276.64 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $103.20 | 91 | $9,391.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $99.99 | 91 | $9,099.09 | $9,192.50 |
$-292.11 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $101.24 | 90 | $9,111.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $99.47 | 90 | $8,952.30 | $9,033.20 |
$-159.30 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $100.32 | 90 | $9,028.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $99.19 | 90 | $8,927.55 | $8,931.95 |
$-101.25 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $97.80 | 91 | $8,899.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $94.81 | 91 | $8,627.71 | $8,659.86 |
$-272.09 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:55pm ET | $92.57 | 93 | $8,609.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $94.46 | 93 | $8,784.78 | $8,835.63 |
+$175.77 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $94.76 | 93 | $8,813.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:40pm ET | $96.71 | 93 | $8,994.00 | $9,016.49 |
+$180.86 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $96.64 | 93 | $8,987.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $96.22 | 93 | $8,948.46 | $8,977.43 |
$-39.06 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $98.46 | 91 | $8,960.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $99.44 | 91 | $9,049.49 | $9,066.61 |
+$89.18 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $102.62 | 88 | $9,030.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $105.17 | 88 | $9,254.96 | $9,291.01 |
+$224.40 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $106.18 | 87 | $9,237.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $102.93 | 87 | $8,954.91 | $9,008.26 |
$-282.75 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $102.43 | 87 | $8,911.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $100.77 | 87 | $8,766.99 | $8,863.84 |
$-144.42 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $103.54 | 85 | $8,801.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $100.42 | 85 | $8,535.28 | $8,597.79 |
$-266.05 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $106.95 | 80 | $8,556.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $109.38 | 80 | $8,750.40 | $8,792.19 |
+$194.40 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,792.19
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,207.81
Total Return:
-12.08%