HD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 38 trades in period
-21.00%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,551.23
Current Value
34%
Win Rate
$12,090.58
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
9.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 8.9
30-Day Momentum
3
-2.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,383
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
129 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,090.58
Current Value
$9,551.23
Period P&L
$-2,539.34
Max Drawdown
-18.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.27
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
13 /
25
Best Trade
+3.17%
Worst Trade
-4.27%
Avg Trade Return
-0.61%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$843,368.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,539.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,539.34
Gross Return
-21.00%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 129 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,090.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 9:45am ET | $344.64 | 35 | $12,062.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $347.60 | 35 | $12,166.00 | $12,194.17 |
+$103.60 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET | $344.94 | 35 | $12,072.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $343.17 | 35 | $12,010.95 | $12,132.32 |
$-61.85 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $345.33 | 35 | $12,086.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $356.29 | 35 | $12,469.98 | $12,515.75 |
+$383.43 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.78 | 36 | $12,483.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $354.79 | 36 | $12,772.44 | $12,804.29 |
+$288.54 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
36m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $372.85 | 34 | $12,676.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $377.73 | 34 | $12,842.82 | $12,970.21 |
+$165.92 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:50pm ET | $378.74 | 34 | $12,877.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:50pm ET | $375.43 | 34 | $12,764.45 | $12,857.50 |
$-112.71 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $384.99 | 33 | $12,704.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $383.56 | 33 | $12,657.48 | $12,810.31 |
$-47.19 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $378.95 | 33 | $12,505.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $374.32 | 33 | $12,352.56 | $12,657.52 |
$-152.79 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $385.03 | 32 | $12,320.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $383.88 | 32 | $12,284.00 | $12,620.56 |
$-36.96 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $384.77 | 32 | $12,312.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $389.74 | 32 | $12,471.84 | $12,779.76 |
+$159.20 (+1.3%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $382.95 | 33 | $12,637.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.00 | 33 | $12,573.00 | $12,715.41 |
$-64.35 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $388.87 | 32 | $12,443.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $376.00 | 32 | $12,032.00 | $12,303.57 |
$-411.84 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $378.85 | 32 | $12,123.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $362.99 | 32 | $11,615.68 | $11,796.21 |
$-507.36 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:25am ET | $365.19 | 32 | $11,686.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $353.65 | 32 | $11,316.72 | $11,426.85 |
$-369.36 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $345.92 | 33 | $11,415.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $353.84 | 33 | $11,676.72 | $11,688.21 |
+$261.36 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $357.79 | 32 | $11,449.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $346.21 | 32 | $11,078.72 | $11,317.65 |
$-370.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $341.73 | 33 | $11,277.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $338.24 | 33 | $11,161.92 | $11,202.48 |
$-115.17 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:00am ET | $329.42 | 34 | $11,200.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $325.97 | 34 | $11,083.01 | $11,085.21 |
$-117.27 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $331.57 | 33 | $10,941.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET | $321.60 | 33 | $10,612.64 | $10,756.20 |
$-329.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $324.73 | 33 | $10,716.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:55am ET | $332.00 | 33 | $10,956.00 | $10,996.11 |
+$239.91 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $320.51 | 34 | $10,897.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $319.52 | 34 | $10,863.68 | $10,962.45 |
$-33.66 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $336.05 | 32 | $10,753.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $333.13 | 32 | $10,660.00 | $10,868.84 |
$-93.61 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $341.13 | 31 | $10,575.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $348.52 | 31 | $10,804.12 | $11,097.93 |
+$229.09 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $345.61 | 32 | $11,059.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $352.54 | 32 | $11,281.28 | $11,319.69 |
+$221.76 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $341.65 | 33 | $11,274.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $333.85 | 33 | $11,017.05 | $11,062.29 |
$-257.40 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:35pm ET | $329.80 | 33 | $10,883.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $319.85 | 33 | $10,555.05 | $10,734.10 |
$-328.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $327.77 | 32 | $10,488.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $317.93 | 32 | $10,173.63 | $10,419.25 |
$-314.85 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $313.78 | 33 | $10,354.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.02 | 33 | $10,626.66 | $10,691.17 |
+$271.92 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $324.93 | 32 | $10,397.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $313.74 | 32 | $10,039.68 | $10,333.09 |
$-358.08 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $310.47 | 33 | $10,245.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $301.06 | 33 | $9,934.98 | $10,022.56 |
$-310.53 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $304.09 | 32 | $9,730.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $291.12 | 32 | $9,315.84 | $9,607.52 |
$-415.04 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $300.42 | 31 | $9,312.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $306.78 | 31 | $9,510.18 | $9,804.83 |
+$197.31 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $310.11 | 31 | $9,613.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $310.04 | 31 | $9,611.24 | $9,802.66 |
$-2.17 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $317.77 | 30 | $9,533.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 11:10am ET | $308.72 | 30 | $9,261.60 | $9,531.16 |
$-271.50 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $310.21 | 30 | $9,306.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $307.59 | 30 | $9,227.70 | $9,452.41 |
$-78.75 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $319.18 | 29 | $9,256.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET | $326.27 | 29 | $9,461.83 | $9,658.02 |
+$205.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $327.81 | 29 | $9,506.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.50 | 29 | $9,700.50 | $9,852.03 |
+$194.01 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $336.94 | 29 | $9,771.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $326.57 | 29 | $9,470.53 | $9,551.23 |
$-300.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,551.23
Net Profit/Loss:
$-448.77
Total Return:
-4.49%