ISRG Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 38 trades in period
-14.90%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,293.70
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$12,096.03
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
4.9/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
17.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 17.2
30-Day Momentum
4
-10.2%
30d Return
14%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7
Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-13 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,645
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
134 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,096.03
Current Value
$10,293.70
Period P&L
$-1,802.37
Max Drawdown
-39.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
17 /
21
Best Trade
+3.39%
Worst Trade
-4.88%
Avg Trade Return
-0.39%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$864,106.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,802.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,802.37
Gross Return
-14.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.90%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 134 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,096.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 3:25pm ET | $546.99 | 22 | $12,033.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 12:25pm ET | $558.02 | 22 | $12,276.33 | $12,317.71 |
+$242.55 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 1:30pm ET | $568.71 | 21 | $11,942.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 3:45pm ET | $551.13 | 21 | $11,573.73 | $11,948.53 |
$-369.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $544.50 | 21 | $11,434.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:25am ET | $555.78 | 21 | $11,671.28 | $12,185.31 |
+$236.78 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:05am ET | $569.00 | 21 | $11,948.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 3:45pm ET | $551.35 | 21 | $11,578.35 | $11,814.76 |
$-370.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 3:55pm ET | $561.65 | 21 | $11,794.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:45am ET | $573.23 | 21 | $12,037.83 | $12,057.94 |
+$243.18 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:25am ET | $575.17 | 20 | $11,503.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 11:25am ET | $570.61 | 20 | $11,412.10 | $11,966.64 |
$-91.30 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 11:35am ET | $565.03 | 21 | $11,865.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $574.14 | 21 | $12,056.84 | $12,157.81 |
+$191.17 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 9:40am ET | $562.89 | 21 | $11,820.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 3:40pm ET | $545.82 | 21 | $11,462.22 | $11,799.34 |
$-358.47 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:20am ET | $554.12 | 21 | $11,636.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 11:00am ET | $565.68 | 21 | $11,879.28 | $12,042.21 |
+$242.86 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 12:40pm ET | $569.61 | 21 | $11,961.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 11:20am ET | $582.45 | 21 | $12,231.45 | $12,311.85 |
+$269.64 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 12:10pm ET | $576.56 | 21 | $12,107.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $579.57 | 21 | $12,170.97 | $12,375.16 |
+$63.32 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET | $571.87 | 21 | $12,009.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $561.03 | 21 | $11,781.63 | $12,147.52 |
$-227.64 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:15am ET | $586.76 | 20 | $11,735.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:30am ET | $599.07 | 20 | $11,981.30 | $12,393.62 |
+$246.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $588.83 | 21 | $12,365.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET | $571.10 | 21 | $11,993.10 | $12,021.29 |
$-372.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $557.13 | 21 | $11,699.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $539.64 | 21 | $11,332.44 | $11,654.10 |
$-367.19 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $543.45 | 21 | $11,412.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $528.42 | 21 | $11,096.78 | $11,338.54 |
$-315.57 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $523.63 | 21 | $10,996.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $539.21 | 21 | $11,323.41 | $11,665.72 |
+$327.18 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $529.65 | 22 | $11,652.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $512.76 | 22 | $11,280.61 | $11,294.03 |
$-371.69 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:25am ET | $503.44 | 22 | $11,075.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:55am ET | $488.08 | 22 | $10,737.76 | $10,956.11 |
$-337.92 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:10am ET | $475.79 | 23 | $10,943.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $485.65 | 23 | $11,170.06 | $11,183.00 |
+$226.89 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $486.30 | 22 | $10,698.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $497.84 | 22 | $10,952.48 | $11,436.77 |
+$253.77 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $489.14 | 23 | $11,250.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $499.70 | 23 | $11,493.21 | $11,679.76 |
+$242.99 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:15am ET | $500.84 | 23 | $11,519.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $494.15 | 23 | $11,365.45 | $11,525.83 |
$-153.93 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $502.60 | 22 | $11,057.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:05pm ET | $497.61 | 22 | $10,947.42 | $11,416.05 |
$-109.78 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $489.77 | 23 | $11,264.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:25am ET | $501.05 | 23 | $11,524.15 | $11,675.37 |
+$259.32 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $493.23 | 23 | $11,344.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $490.53 | 23 | $11,282.19 | $11,613.16 |
$-62.21 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:45am ET | $483.77 | 24 | $11,610.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $460.16 | 24 | $11,043.84 | $11,046.64 |
$-566.52 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $481.44 | 22 | $10,591.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $492.53 | 22 | $10,835.66 | $11,290.62 |
+$243.98 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $477.03 | 23 | $10,971.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.14 | 23 | $11,227.33 | $11,546.26 |
+$255.64 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $473.75 | 24 | $11,370.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $459.52 | 24 | $11,028.60 | $11,204.86 |
$-341.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $454.74 | 24 | $10,913.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $465.48 | 24 | $11,171.45 | $11,462.55 |
+$257.69 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $455.33 | 25 | $11,383.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $451.01 | 25 | $11,275.13 | $11,354.43 |
$-108.12 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $465.77 | 24 | $11,178.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $451.21 | 24 | $10,829.16 | $11,005.23 |
$-349.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $452.21 | 24 | $10,853.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $467.54 | 24 | $11,220.84 | $11,372.91 |
+$367.68 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:25am ET | $470.63 | 24 | $11,295.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $456.14 | 24 | $10,947.48 | $11,025.27 |
$-347.64 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $470.36 | 23 | $10,818.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:15pm ET | $456.21 | 23 | $10,492.83 | $10,699.71 |
$-325.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:00pm ET | $485.32 | 22 | $10,677.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:00pm ET | $473.82 | 22 | $10,424.04 | $10,446.71 |
$-253.00 (-2.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:20pm ET | $463.93 | 22 | $10,206.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $456.98 | 22 | $10,053.56 | $10,293.70 |
$-153.01 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,293.70
Net Profit/Loss:
+$293.70
Total Return:
+2.94%