LLY Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 46 trades in period
-4.43%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,536.12
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$12,071.20
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
23
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
10.1/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
23.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 23.3
30-Day Momentum
7
-9.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6
Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,504
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,071.20
Current Value
$11,536.12
Period P&L
$-535.09
Max Drawdown
-33.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
23 /
23
Best Trade
+5.34%
Worst Trade
-4.31%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,086,475.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-535.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-535.09
Gross Return
-4.43%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,071.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:00am ET | $945.15 | 12 | $11,341.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $914.77 | 12 | $10,977.24 | $11,804.58 |
$-364.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:20am ET | $974.83 | 12 | $11,697.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 12:30pm ET | $994.74 | 12 | $11,936.90 | $12,043.52 |
+$238.94 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 1:40pm ET | $1,009.35 | 11 | $11,102.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:55am ET | $1,031.15 | 11 | $11,342.65 | $12,283.32 |
+$239.80 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 1:45pm ET | $1,027.00 | 11 | $11,297.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:40am ET | $1,047.60 | 11 | $11,523.60 | $12,509.92 |
+$226.60 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:40am ET | $1,045.00 | 11 | $11,495.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 10:25am ET | $1,068.07 | 11 | $11,748.81 | $12,763.73 |
+$253.81 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:25am ET | $1,091.99 | 11 | $12,011.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,074.10 | 11 | $11,815.10 | $12,566.99 |
$-196.74 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:15am ET | $1,063.90 | 11 | $11,702.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:55am ET | $1,031.08 | 11 | $11,341.83 | $12,205.92 |
$-361.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 11:35am ET | $1,007.28 | 12 | $12,087.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:35am ET | $995.54 | 12 | $11,946.51 | $12,065.07 |
$-140.85 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 11:50am ET | $989.05 | 12 | $11,868.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,010.31 | 12 | $12,123.72 | $12,320.19 |
+$255.12 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $1,021.56 | 12 | $12,258.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $1,045.78 | 12 | $12,549.36 | $12,610.89 |
+$290.70 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:40am ET | $1,044.06 | 12 | $12,528.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 9:35am ET | $1,075.03 | 12 | $12,900.36 | $12,982.53 |
+$371.64 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $1,064.98 | 12 | $12,779.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 10:15am ET | $1,076.70 | 12 | $12,920.40 | $13,123.17 |
+$140.64 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 2:55pm ET | $1,072.52 | 12 | $12,870.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 2:55pm ET | $1,078.53 | 12 | $12,942.36 | $13,195.35 |
+$72.18 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $1,073.36 | 12 | $12,880.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,040.88 | 12 | $12,490.56 | $12,805.59 |
$-389.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,062.52 | 12 | $12,750.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,084.18 | 12 | $13,010.16 | $13,065.57 |
+$259.98 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $1,102.96 | 11 | $12,132.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,067.49 | 11 | $11,742.39 | $12,675.40 |
$-390.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 3:35pm ET | $1,077.28 | 11 | $11,850.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,038.69 | 11 | $11,425.59 | $12,250.91 |
$-424.49 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,045.34 | 11 | $11,498.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,067.09 | 11 | $11,737.99 | $12,490.12 |
+$239.21 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,087.50 | 11 | $11,962.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $1,067.55 | 11 | $11,743.05 | $12,270.67 |
$-219.45 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $1,014.90 | 12 | $12,178.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,036.85 | 12 | $12,442.20 | $12,534.07 |
+$263.40 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:20am ET | $1,022.10 | 12 | $12,265.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:40pm ET | $1,042.55 | 12 | $12,510.60 | $12,779.47 |
+$245.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:40pm ET | $1,049.32 | 12 | $12,591.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:55am ET | $1,015.88 | 12 | $12,190.50 | $12,378.13 |
$-401.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1,095.50 | 11 | $12,050.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,048.31 | 11 | $11,531.41 | $11,859.04 |
$-519.09 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $1,049.50 | 11 | $11,544.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,105.51 | 11 | $12,160.61 | $12,475.15 |
+$616.11 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,033.05 | 12 | $12,396.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,031.99 | 12 | $12,383.88 | $12,462.43 |
$-12.72 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
48m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $1,058.26 | 11 | $11,640.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,020.78 | 11 | $11,228.58 | $12,050.15 |
$-412.28 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,015.53 | 11 | $11,170.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,047.06 | 11 | $11,517.66 | $12,396.98 |
+$346.83 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,028.09 | 12 | $12,337.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $1,052.70 | 12 | $12,632.40 | $12,692.27 |
+$295.29 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,036.03 | 12 | $12,432.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $1,033.78 | 12 | $12,405.33 | $12,665.30 |
$-26.97 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $996.12 | 12 | $11,953.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $965.66 | 12 | $11,587.92 | $12,299.78 |
$-365.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $975.98 | 12 | $11,711.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $998.88 | 12 | $11,986.56 | $12,574.58 |
+$274.80 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $1,002.77 | 12 | $12,033.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $992.85 | 12 | $11,914.26 | $12,455.60 |
$-118.98 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $972.49 | 12 | $11,669.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $941.04 | 12 | $11,292.48 | $12,078.14 |
$-377.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:55pm ET | $920.75 | 13 | $11,969.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:55pm ET | $915.18 | 13 | $11,897.34 | $12,005.67 |
$-72.47 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $901.53 | 13 | $11,719.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:35pm ET | $919.63 | 13 | $11,955.19 | $12,240.91 |
+$235.24 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 12:40pm ET | $901.68 | 13 | $11,721.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $923.65 | 13 | $12,007.45 | $12,526.52 |
+$285.61 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $932.61 | 13 | $12,123.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $951.48 | 13 | $12,369.24 | $12,771.76 |
+$245.24 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 11:45am ET | $934.46 | 13 | $12,147.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $902.29 | 13 | $11,729.77 | $12,353.55 |
$-418.21 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 12:20pm ET | $957.84 | 12 | $11,494.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:20pm ET | $930.47 | 12 | $11,165.64 | $12,025.11 |
$-328.44 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $935.60 | 12 | $11,227.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $904.37 | 12 | $10,852.44 | $11,650.35 |
$-374.76 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:55am ET | $899.79 | 12 | $10,797.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $919.93 | 12 | $11,039.16 | $11,891.97 |
+$241.62 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $913.46 | 13 | $11,874.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $884.98 | 13 | $11,504.74 | $11,521.73 |
$-370.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $917.75 | 12 | $11,013.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $889.48 | 12 | $10,673.76 | $11,182.49 |
$-339.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $878.43 | 12 | $10,541.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $851.74 | 12 | $10,220.88 | $10,862.15 |
$-320.34 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $932.26 | 11 | $10,254.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $973.99 | 11 | $10,713.94 | $11,321.29 |
+$459.14 (+4.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $961.27 | 11 | $10,573.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $980.80 | 11 | $10,788.80 | $11,536.12 |
+$214.83 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,536.12
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,536.12
Total Return:
+15.36%