Compendium › Rebel Contraire › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 29 trades in period

+3.52%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,754.23
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$10,388.91
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 12:22:02

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
7.7/25
Win Rate
4.1/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 19.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 19.6

30-Day Momentum

1
-4.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-19 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,891
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,388.91
Current Value
$10,754.23
Period P&L
$365.26
Max Drawdown
-15.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
13 / 16
Best Trade
+3.08%
Worst Trade
-3.54%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
4.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$629,754.12
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$365.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$365.26
Gross Return
+3.52%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.52%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,388.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $303.51 34 $10,319.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET $302.75 34 $10,293.50 $10,516.48 $-25.84
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 10:00am ET $306.54 34 $10,422.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET $305.43 34 $10,384.45 $10,478.57 $-37.91
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 10:15am ET $306.46 34 $10,419.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $308.00 34 $10,472.00 $10,530.93 +$52.36
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 9:55am ET $309.00 34 $10,506.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $308.75 34 $10,497.50 $10,522.43 $-8.50
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 9:30am ET $301.98 34 $10,267.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 1:45pm ET $308.07 34 $10,474.26 $10,729.37 +$206.94
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 1:45pm ET $308.44 34 $10,486.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 1:45pm ET $309.54 34 $10,524.36 $10,766.94 +$37.57
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 1:45pm ET $308.66 34 $10,494.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:35am ET $314.86 34 $10,705.24 $10,977.74 +$210.80
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:45am ET $317.22 34 $10,785.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET $314.57 34 $10,695.55 $10,887.80 $-89.93
(-0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 10:15am ET $312.81 34 $10,635.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $309.51 34 $10,523.17 $10,775.43 $-112.37
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 2:25pm ET $308.13 34 $10,476.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $301.21 34 $10,241.14 $10,540.15 $-235.28
(-2.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET $299.53 35 $10,483.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $305.99 35 $10,709.71 $10,766.48 +$226.33
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 3:05pm ET $308.37 34 $10,484.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:05pm ET $307.77 34 $10,464.18 $10,746.08 $-20.40
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET $304.96 35 $10,673.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:40am ET $305.69 35 $10,699.15 $10,771.63 +$25.55
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:55am ET $304.03 35 $10,641.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET $313.39 35 $10,968.48 $11,099.06 +$327.43
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 12:00pm ET $313.45 35 $10,970.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $318.99 35 $11,164.56 $11,292.87 +$193.81
(+1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET $321.55 35 $11,254.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $326.64 35 $11,432.40 $11,471.20 +$178.33
(+1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $325.28 35 $11,384.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $325.11 35 $11,378.85 $11,465.25 $-5.95
(-0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
2.1h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET $327.62 34 $11,139.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $330.25 34 $11,228.50 $11,554.67 +$89.42
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:20am ET $334.45 34 $11,371.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 3:50pm ET $341.28 34 $11,603.52 $11,787.06 +$232.39
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $330.05 35 $11,551.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $325.90 35 $11,406.67 $11,641.99 $-145.07
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $328.29 35 $11,490.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $328.28 35 $11,489.80 $11,641.64 $-0.35
(-0.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:40am ET $329.26 35 $11,524.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 11:40am ET $319.30 35 $11,175.33 $11,292.92 $-348.72
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 11:45am ET $312.74 36 $11,258.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 11:45am ET $309.61 36 $11,145.96 $11,180.24 $-112.68
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 2:55pm ET $311.86 35 $10,915.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 2:55pm ET $309.59 35 $10,835.65 $11,100.79 $-79.45
(-0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET $305.11 36 $10,983.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 10:05am ET $307.99 36 $11,087.64 $11,204.65 +$103.86
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 10:30am ET $307.84 36 $11,082.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $304.39 36 $10,958.22 $11,080.63 $-124.02
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET $302.08 36 $10,874.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $308.57 36 $11,108.52 $11,314.27 +$233.64
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:00am ET $308.47 36 $11,104.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $297.54 36 $10,711.26 $10,920.73 $-393.54
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:50am ET $291.08 37 $10,769.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $286.58 37 $10,603.46 $10,754.23 $-166.50
(-1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,754.23
Net Profit/Loss: +$754.23
Total Return: +7.54%
Back to Rebel Contraire