MDT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 35 trades in period
-21.20%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,485.20
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$10,767.44
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
62.3 neutral
20d Trend
+5.9%
5d Trend
+0.9%
EMA20 Dist
+1.9%
ATR%
1.9%
Range Pos
83%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality
7.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 7.2
30-Day Momentum
3
-3.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,908
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
125 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,767.44
Current Value
$8,485.20
Period P&L
$-2,282.23
Max Drawdown
-15.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.30
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
10 /
25
Best Trade
+4.44%
Worst Trade
-3.84%
Avg Trade Return
-0.64%
Avg Hold Time
4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$688,930.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,282.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,282.23
Gross Return
-21.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.20%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MDT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 125 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,767.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $97.88 | 109 | $10,668.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $97.70 | 109 | $10,649.30 | $10,671.51 |
$-19.35 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:50am ET | $97.71 | 109 | $10,650.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $96.60 | 109 | $10,528.86 | $10,549.98 |
$-121.53 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:50am ET | $96.37 | 109 | $10,503.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $95.57 | 109 | $10,417.13 | $10,463.32 |
$-86.66 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:25am ET | $99.76 | 104 | $10,375.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $97.05 | 104 | $10,093.20 | $10,181.48 |
$-281.84 (-2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $96.68 | 105 | $10,150.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $98.73 | 105 | $10,366.65 | $10,397.26 |
+$215.78 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $98.01 | 106 | $10,389.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $100.53 | 106 | $10,656.18 | $10,664.38 |
+$267.12 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:35pm ET | $101.85 | 104 | $10,592.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $101.19 | 104 | $10,523.76 | $10,595.74 |
$-68.64 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $100.99 | 104 | $10,502.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $103.25 | 104 | $10,737.88 | $10,830.65 |
+$234.92 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET | $104.36 | 103 | $10,748.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $101.21 | 103 | $10,424.63 | $10,506.72 |
$-323.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:50pm ET | $104.07 | 100 | $10,407.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $102.57 | 100 | $10,256.50 | $10,356.22 |
$-150.50 (-1.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $96.07 | 107 | $10,279.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $98.26 | 107 | $10,513.82 | $10,590.55 |
+$234.33 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $96.74 | 109 | $10,544.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $98.68 | 109 | $10,756.12 | $10,801.99 |
+$211.44 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 2:30pm ET | $96.86 | 111 | $10,750.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $96.85 | 111 | $10,750.35 | $10,801.43 |
$-0.56 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $97.25 | 111 | $10,794.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $94.33 | 111 | $10,470.63 | $10,477.31 |
$-324.12 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $91.06 | 115 | $10,471.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $88.12 | 115 | $10,133.80 | $10,139.21 |
$-338.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $89.20 | 113 | $10,079.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $88.89 | 113 | $10,044.57 | $10,104.18 |
$-35.03 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $87.38 | 115 | $10,048.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $87.07 | 115 | $10,013.62 | $10,069.68 |
$-34.50 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:55am ET | $87.01 | 115 | $10,006.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $89.04 | 115 | $10,239.60 | $10,303.13 |
+$233.45 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:20am ET | $87.04 | 118 | $10,270.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $86.53 | 118 | $10,210.54 | $10,242.95 |
$-60.18 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $86.49 | 118 | $10,205.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $86.27 | 118 | $10,179.86 | $10,216.99 |
$-25.96 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $87.92 | 116 | $10,198.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $86.79 | 116 | $10,068.22 | $10,087.07 |
$-129.92 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $88.47 | 114 | $10,085.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $85.80 | 114 | $9,781.20 | $9,782.69 |
$-304.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $86.07 | 113 | $9,725.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 12:05pm ET | $83.37 | 113 | $9,420.81 | $9,478.16 |
$-304.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $83.12 | 114 | $9,475.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:05pm ET | $83.32 | 114 | $9,497.91 | $9,500.39 |
+$22.23 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $81.81 | 116 | $9,489.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $79.31 | 116 | $9,199.38 | $9,209.81 |
$-290.58 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $80.81 | 113 | $9,131.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $78.24 | 113 | $8,840.56 | $8,918.84 |
$-290.97 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $77.51 | 115 | $8,913.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:15am ET | $79.09 | 115 | $9,095.35 | $9,100.54 |
+$181.70 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 12:55pm ET | $76.86 | 118 | $9,070.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 12:10pm ET | $74.46 | 118 | $8,786.28 | $8,816.75 |
$-283.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:30pm ET | $76.78 | 114 | $8,752.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.47 | 114 | $8,717.14 | $8,780.97 |
$-35.78 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:45am ET | $78.65 | 111 | $8,730.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.37 | 111 | $8,699.07 | $8,749.89 |
$-31.08 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $77.60 | 112 | $8,691.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $75.04 | 112 | $8,404.48 | $8,463.17 |
$-286.72 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET | $74.21 | 114 | $8,460.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.51 | 114 | $8,836.14 | $8,838.80 |
+$375.63 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET | $81.48 | 108 | $8,799.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $81.77 | 108 | $8,831.16 | $8,870.12 |
+$31.32 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $80.95 | 109 | $8,823.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 12:35pm ET | $80.51 | 109 | $8,775.59 | $8,822.16 |
$-47.96 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $81.29 | 108 | $8,779.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $78.17 | 108 | $8,442.36 | $8,485.20 |
$-336.96 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,485.20
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,514.80
Total Return:
-15.15%