MSFT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 38 trades in period
-11.19%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,407.73
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$13,971.54
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
29.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 28.6
30-Day Momentum
59
+10.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
8
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.7
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,214
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,971.54
Current Value
$12,407.73
Period P&L
$-1,563.78
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
21 /
17
Best Trade
+4.09%
Worst Trade
-10.07%
Avg Trade Return
-0.31%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$959,443.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,563.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,563.78
Gross Return
-11.19%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.19%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,971.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 9:35am ET | $503.33 | 28 | $14,093.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 9:35am ET | $503.65 | 28 | $14,102.14 | $14,138.05 |
+$8.90 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 9:50am ET | $507.23 | 27 | $13,695.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:50am ET | $509.25 | 27 | $13,749.75 | $14,192.59 |
+$54.54 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $495.20 | 28 | $13,865.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET | $479.91 | 28 | $13,437.48 | $13,764.61 |
$-427.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:55pm ET | $473.80 | 29 | $13,740.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $483.40 | 29 | $14,018.56 | $14,043.11 |
+$278.50 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 11:20am ET | $491.76 | 28 | $13,769.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $476.20 | 28 | $13,333.46 | $13,607.29 |
$-435.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 9:45am ET | $476.95 | 28 | $13,354.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $487.36 | 28 | $13,645.94 | $13,898.63 |
+$291.34 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:10am ET | $490.57 | 28 | $13,736.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $477.91 | 28 | $13,381.48 | $13,544.04 |
$-354.59 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $473.32 | 28 | $13,252.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $483.32 | 28 | $13,532.96 | $13,824.18 |
+$280.14 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:45am ET | $484.69 | 28 | $13,571.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 11:45am ET | $488.80 | 28 | $13,686.53 | $13,939.39 |
+$115.21 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 3:20pm ET | $487.00 | 28 | $13,636.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 3:20pm ET | $483.80 | 28 | $13,546.40 | $13,849.79 |
$-89.60 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $471.33 | 29 | $13,668.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $482.77 | 29 | $14,000.33 | $14,181.55 |
+$331.76 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $480.91 | 29 | $13,946.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $474.49 | 29 | $13,760.21 | $13,995.26 |
$-186.29 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $464.21 | 30 | $13,926.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $451.40 | 30 | $13,541.85 | $13,610.96 |
$-384.30 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $449.35 | 30 | $13,480.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $459.67 | 30 | $13,789.95 | $13,920.41 |
+$309.45 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $472.77 | 29 | $13,710.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 1:55pm ET | $482.70 | 29 | $13,998.30 | $14,208.52 |
+$288.12 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $480.39 | 29 | $13,931.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $432.00 | 29 | $12,528.00 | $12,805.21 |
$-1,403.31 (-10.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $432.88 | 29 | $12,553.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $416.55 | 29 | $12,080.09 | $12,331.93 |
$-473.28 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $410.52 | 30 | $12,315.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $398.15 | 30 | $11,944.50 | $11,960.84 |
$-371.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $399.69 | 29 | $11,591.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $408.50 | 29 | $11,846.50 | $12,216.33 |
+$255.49 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $420.25 | 29 | $12,187.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $420.29 | 29 | $12,188.41 | $12,217.49 |
+$1.16 (+0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $396.91 | 30 | $11,907.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.75 | 30 | $11,842.50 | $12,152.69 |
$-64.80 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $384.59 | 31 | $11,922.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $392.96 | 31 | $12,181.76 | $12,412.16 |
+$259.47 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $401.48 | 30 | $12,044.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $393.65 | 30 | $11,809.65 | $12,177.41 |
$-234.75 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:55am ET | $405.69 | 30 | $12,170.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $407.11 | 30 | $12,213.30 | $12,220.01 |
+$42.60 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:40pm ET | $404.72 | 30 | $12,141.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $397.66 | 30 | $11,929.80 | $12,008.21 |
$-211.80 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $400.92 | 29 | $11,626.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:25am ET | $388.69 | 29 | $11,272.01 | $11,653.54 |
$-354.67 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $384.34 | 30 | $11,530.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $372.72 | 30 | $11,181.60 | $11,304.94 |
$-348.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:50pm ET | $370.96 | 30 | $11,128.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $359.58 | 30 | $10,787.40 | $10,963.39 |
$-341.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $360.23 | 30 | $10,806.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $367.89 | 30 | $11,036.85 | $11,193.49 |
+$230.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $370.70 | 30 | $11,121.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $371.66 | 30 | $11,149.80 | $11,222.29 |
+$28.80 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $369.57 | 30 | $11,086.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.69 | 30 | $11,540.70 | $11,676.04 |
+$453.75 (+4.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $368.73 | 31 | $11,430.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $377.73 | 31 | $11,709.78 | $11,955.19 |
+$279.15 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 11:00am ET | $391.62 | 30 | $11,748.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $400.89 | 30 | $12,026.70 | $12,233.29 |
+$278.10 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $414.36 | 29 | $12,016.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.78 | 29 | $12,318.62 | $12,535.61 |
+$302.32 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $419.52 | 29 | $12,166.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $428.24 | 29 | $12,418.96 | $12,788.49 |
+$252.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $420.27 | 30 | $12,608.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $423.65 | 30 | $12,709.65 | $12,889.89 |
+$101.40 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $424.58 | 30 | $12,737.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $410.24 | 30 | $12,307.20 | $12,459.69 |
$-430.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $412.13 | 30 | $12,363.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $410.40 | 30 | $12,311.94 | $12,407.73 |
$-51.96 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,407.73
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,407.73
Total Return:
+24.08%