QQQ Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 34 trades in period
+12.28%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,357.81
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$10,115.28
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
9.7/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
25.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 25.0
30-Day Momentum
19
+1.9%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.9
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,153
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,115.28
Current Value
$11,357.81
Period P&L
$1,242.50
Max Drawdown
-24.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
21 /
13
Best Trade
+4.30%
Worst Trade
-3.10%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$676,090.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,242.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,242.50
Gross Return
+12.28%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.28%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,115.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $609.52 | 16 | $9,752.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $619.58 | 16 | $9,913.20 | $10,118.59 |
+$160.83 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $618.01 | 16 | $9,888.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $620.45 | 16 | $9,927.20 | $10,157.63 |
+$39.04 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET | $619.77 | 16 | $9,916.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $617.98 | 16 | $9,887.68 | $10,128.99 |
$-28.64 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $621.29 | 16 | $9,940.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $624.95 | 16 | $9,999.18 | $10,187.53 |
+$58.54 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $627.40 | 16 | $10,038.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $613.05 | 16 | $9,808.80 | $9,957.93 |
$-229.60 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $615.69 | 16 | $9,851.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $626.54 | 16 | $10,024.57 | $10,131.46 |
+$173.53 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:00pm ET | $631.14 | 16 | $10,098.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $621.00 | 16 | $9,936.00 | $9,969.22 |
$-162.24 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $620.46 | 16 | $9,927.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:35pm ET | $601.25 | 16 | $9,620.00 | $9,661.86 |
$-307.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $600.55 | 16 | $9,608.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $613.10 | 16 | $9,809.60 | $9,862.66 |
+$200.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $615.27 | 16 | $9,844.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $615.03 | 16 | $9,840.56 | $9,858.90 |
$-3.76 (-0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $598.12 | 16 | $9,569.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $606.49 | 16 | $9,703.84 | $9,992.82 |
+$133.92 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $603.83 | 16 | $9,661.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 2:05pm ET | $615.97 | 16 | $9,855.44 | $10,186.98 |
+$194.16 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 3:15pm ET | $608.15 | 16 | $9,730.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $602.18 | 16 | $9,634.88 | $10,091.46 |
$-95.52 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $611.17 | 16 | $9,778.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $592.67 | 16 | $9,482.72 | $9,795.46 |
$-296.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $606.94 | 16 | $9,711.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $600.03 | 16 | $9,600.48 | $9,684.90 |
$-110.56 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $605.21 | 16 | $9,683.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $586.58 | 16 | $9,385.28 | $9,386.82 |
$-298.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $593.39 | 15 | $8,900.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:30pm ET | $575.26 | 15 | $8,628.90 | $9,114.87 |
$-271.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $562.66 | 16 | $9,002.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:00pm ET | $574.09 | 16 | $9,185.44 | $9,297.75 |
+$182.88 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET | $587.49 | 15 | $8,812.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $586.83 | 15 | $8,802.45 | $9,287.78 |
$-9.97 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:25pm ET | $584.05 | 15 | $8,760.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $609.17 | 15 | $9,137.55 | $9,664.58 |
+$376.80 (+4.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $604.41 | 15 | $9,066.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $617.21 | 15 | $9,258.15 | $9,856.58 |
+$192.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $633.17 | 15 | $9,497.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $645.88 | 15 | $9,688.19 | $10,047.24 |
+$190.66 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $644.40 | 15 | $9,666.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $658.27 | 15 | $9,874.05 | $10,255.29 |
+$208.05 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $661.08 | 15 | $9,916.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $674.58 | 15 | $10,118.70 | $10,457.79 |
+$202.50 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $674.61 | 15 | $10,119.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $689.07 | 15 | $10,336.05 | $10,674.69 |
+$216.90 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:50am ET | $698.69 | 15 | $10,480.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $712.82 | 15 | $10,692.30 | $10,886.64 |
+$211.95 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $704.63 | 15 | $10,569.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $719.31 | 15 | $10,789.64 | $11,106.83 |
+$220.19 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $709.21 | 15 | $10,638.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $711.92 | 15 | $10,678.80 | $11,147.48 |
+$40.65 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 2:05pm ET | $715.02 | 15 | $10,725.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $729.35 | 15 | $10,940.25 | $11,362.43 |
+$214.95 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $726.67 | 15 | $10,900.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 11:05am ET | $739.54 | 15 | $11,093.10 | $11,555.48 |
+$193.05 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $745.27 | 15 | $11,179.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $722.58 | 15 | $10,838.70 | $11,215.08 |
$-340.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET | $719.87 | 15 | $10,798.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $698.12 | 15 | $10,471.80 | $10,888.83 |
$-326.25 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:10pm ET | $699.38 | 15 | $10,490.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:15pm ET | $714.10 | 15 | $10,711.50 | $11,109.63 |
+$220.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 3:30pm ET | $721.48 | 15 | $10,822.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $738.03 | 15 | $11,070.45 | $11,357.81 |
+$248.18 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,357.81
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,357.81
Total Return:
+13.58%