Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 02:24:55

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 10.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

50
+9.4%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 53.5 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,340
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,240.06
Current Value
$4,946.52
Period P&L
$-293.49
Max Drawdown
-60.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
67
Winners / Losers
39 / 28
Best Trade
+7.40%
Worst Trade
-4.92%
Avg Trade Return
-0.01%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$634,931.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-293.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-293.49
Gross Return
-5.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 67 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $5,240.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 3:00pm ET $22.11 231 $5,106.26
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 9:40am ET $21.27 231 $4,913.37 $4,918.91 $-192.89
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 11:50am ET $21.26 231 $4,909.91
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $20.43 231 $4,719.33 $4,728.33 $-190.58
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET $19.82 238 $4,717.16
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET $20.39 238 $4,851.96 $4,863.14 +$134.80
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 9:35am ET $19.29 252 $4,861.08
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $19.84 252 $4,999.71 $5,001.76 +$138.63
(+2.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
24m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET $18.89 264 $4,986.96
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:10am ET $19.35 264 $5,108.40 $5,123.20 +$121.44
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
12m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $19.83 258 $5,116.14
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 12:55pm ET $20.29 258 $5,234.97 $5,242.04 +$118.83
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
54m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $20.51 255 $5,228.78
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 3:30pm ET $19.79 255 $5,045.18 $5,058.44 $-183.60
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $18.99 266 $5,050.01
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 2:50pm ET $19.37 266 $5,152.42 $5,160.85 +$102.41
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 3:20pm ET $18.80 274 $5,151.20
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $17.88 274 $4,897.75 $4,907.40 $-253.45
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 11:25am ET $17.22 285 $4,906.28
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 12:25pm ET $16.70 285 $4,758.08 $4,759.20 $-148.20
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:30pm ET $16.02 297 $4,756.46
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET $16.35 297 $4,854.47 $4,857.21 +$98.01
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 11:30am ET $16.78 289 $4,847.98
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $16.27 289 $4,702.03 $4,711.26 $-145.95
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET $15.65 301 $4,709.15
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 11:55am ET $15.17 301 $4,564.67 $4,566.78 $-144.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 2:00pm ET $15.34 297 $4,554.50
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:30am ET $14.86 297 $4,414.76 $4,427.04 $-139.74
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:30am ET $14.47 306 $4,426.29
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:35am ET $14.76 306 $4,515.03 $4,515.78 +$88.74
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET $14.30 315 $4,504.50
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET $13.87 315 $4,369.05 $4,380.33 $-135.45
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:20pm ET $14.86 294 $4,370.31
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET $14.40 294 $4,235.07 $4,245.09 $-135.24
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:05pm ET $15.34 276 $4,233.81
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $15.32 276 $4,228.32 $4,239.60 $-5.49
(-0.1%)
📅 Sim Ended
30m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 2:35pm ET $14.44 293 $4,232.38
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $14.77 293 $4,326.15 $4,333.36 +$93.76
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $17.10 253 $4,327.31
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 10:45am ET $16.57 253 $4,192.21 $4,198.26 $-135.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 10:50am ET $16.80 249 $4,181.96
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 1:25pm ET $16.27 249 $4,051.23 $4,067.54 $-130.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 2:10pm ET $15.23 267 $4,065.08
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 3:50pm ET $15.56 267 $4,153.19 $4,155.65 +$88.11
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:45am ET $15.02 276 $4,145.52
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 2:00pm ET $15.34 276 $4,233.84 $4,243.97 +$88.32
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 2:00pm ET $15.36 276 $4,239.86
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:55am ET $15.67 276 $4,324.92 $4,329.03 +$85.06
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:55am ET $15.22 284 $4,321.06
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET $14.71 284 $4,178.21 $4,186.18 $-142.85
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
26 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:40am ET $14.94 280 $4,184.60
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:55am ET $15.25 280 $4,270.03 $4,271.61 +$85.43
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
27 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 10:55am ET $15.11 282 $4,262.43
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $15.45 282 $4,356.90 $4,366.08 +$94.47
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
28 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET $15.44 282 $4,354.08
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $15.77 282 $4,445.73 $4,457.73 +$91.65
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held
29 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $16.78 265 $4,446.73
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 11:30am ET $16.24 265 $4,303.60 $4,314.60 $-143.13
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
30 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 12:15pm ET $15.84 272 $4,308.48
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET $15.36 272 $4,177.92 $4,184.04 $-130.56
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
31 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 3:45pm ET $14.84 281 $4,170.01
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:25am ET $15.16 281 $4,259.96 $4,273.99 +$89.95
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
32 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:00am ET $15.65 273 $4,273.65
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 1:55pm ET $15.97 273 $4,359.81 $4,360.15 +$86.16
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held
33 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 2:55pm ET $15.61 279 $4,356.58
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $16.77 279 $4,678.80 $4,682.37 +$322.22
(+7.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held
34 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $15.19 308 $4,678.52
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 11:55am ET $15.52 308 $4,778.62 $4,782.47 +$100.10
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
35 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:20pm ET $15.82 302 $4,779.15
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $16.33 302 $4,930.15 $4,933.47 +$151.00
(+3.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
36 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET $15.60 316 $4,929.60
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $15.07 316 $4,762.12 $4,765.99 $-167.48
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held
37 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:40pm ET $14.43 330 $4,761.90
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 11:10am ET $14.77 330 $4,875.75 $4,879.84 +$113.85
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held
38 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $15.20 320 $4,865.60
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $15.57 320 $4,984.00 $4,998.24 +$118.40
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
39 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $15.10 331 $4,998.10
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:40am ET $14.62 331 $4,839.22 $4,839.36 $-158.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
40 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 1:05pm ET $15.35 315 $4,833.68
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET $15.71 315 $4,948.65 $4,954.33 +$114.97
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
41 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:15am ET $15.53 319 $4,954.07
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:40pm ET $15.86 319 $5,060.93 $5,061.20 +$106.87
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held
42 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $15.94 317 $5,053.04
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:00am ET $16.26 317 $5,156.00 $5,164.16 +$102.96
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
43 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET $16.98 304 $5,160.40
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET $17.32 304 $5,265.28 $5,269.04 +$104.88
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.7h held
44 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET $16.83 312 $5,252.52
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:50am ET $17.19 312 $5,361.88 $5,378.40 +$109.36
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
45 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET $17.56 306 $5,371.83
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:00pm ET $17.92 306 $5,483.52 $5,490.09 +$111.69
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2h held
46 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:45pm ET $17.12 320 $5,478.40
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET $16.50 320 $5,280.00 $5,291.69 $-198.40
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
47 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET $16.67 317 $5,285.97
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET $16.14 317 $5,114.80 $5,120.51 $-171.18
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
48 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET $15.98 320 $5,112.00
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 11:00am ET $16.34 320 $5,228.80 $5,237.31 +$116.80
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
49 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 11:30am ET $15.40 340 $5,236.00
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $14.70 340 $4,997.97 $4,999.28 $-238.03
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
50 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:15am ET $14.94 334 $4,989.96
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $14.49 334 $4,839.66 $4,848.98 $-150.30
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
51 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:15pm ET $14.34 338 $4,846.92
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:50am ET $13.88 338 $4,691.44 $4,693.50 $-155.48
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
52 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 10:50am ET $14.09 333 $4,690.31
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 11:10am ET $14.43 333 $4,803.53 $4,806.72 +$113.22
(+2.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
53 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $14.73 326 $4,800.35
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.06 326 $4,581.93 $4,588.30 $-218.42
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
54 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $13.27 345 $4,578.15
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $12.80 345 $4,414.28 $4,424.42 $-163.88
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
55 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:45pm ET $13.56 326 $4,418.93
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:35am ET $13.85 326 $4,515.10 $4,520.59 +$96.17
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held
56 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 10:55am ET $14.18 318 $4,507.65
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:50am ET $14.56 318 $4,630.08 $4,643.02 +$122.43
(+2.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
57 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:55am ET $14.74 314 $4,629.93
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:50am ET $15.09 314 $4,736.69 $4,749.78 +$106.76
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
58 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 12:45pm ET $16.23 292 $4,737.70
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 1:45pm ET $16.58 292 $4,842.82 $4,854.90 +$105.12
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1h held
59 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:00pm ET $17.09 284 $4,854.50
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:40am ET $17.45 284 $4,957.22 $4,957.62 +$102.72
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held
60 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:40am ET $18.06 274 $4,947.07
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 1:20pm ET $18.42 274 $5,048.45 $5,059.00 +$101.38
(+2.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
61 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:10pm ET $16.32 310 $5,057.65
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $16.68 310 $5,170.80 $5,172.15 +$113.15
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
62 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:10am ET $16.18 319 $5,161.42
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET $15.59 319 $4,973.21 $4,983.94 $-188.21
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
63 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET $15.24 326 $4,969.87
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 3:45pm ET $14.75 326 $4,808.50 $4,822.57 $-161.37
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
64 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET $15.74 306 $4,816.44
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 12:40pm ET $16.08 306 $4,921.55 $4,927.68 +$105.11
(+2.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
65 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 1:55pm ET $16.78 293 $4,916.54
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $16.13 293 $4,725.30 $4,736.44 $-191.24
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held
66 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET $16.19 292 $4,727.48
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 11:40am ET $16.56 292 $4,834.06 $4,843.02 +$106.58
(+2.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7h held
67 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 1:00pm ET $16.14 300 $4,840.50
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET $16.48 300 $4,944.00 $4,946.52 +$103.50
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,946.52
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,053.48
Total Return: -50.53%
Back to Rebel Contraire