SPXU Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 48 trades in period
+4.54%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,533.30
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$10,076.05
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
6.7/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
19.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 19.1
30-Day Momentum
9
-3.4%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.2
Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,325
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
133 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,076.05
Current Value
$10,533.30
Period P&L
$457.25
Max Drawdown
-29.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
28 /
20
Best Trade
+5.16%
Worst Trade
-5.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.14%
Avg Hold Time
2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$932,027.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$457.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$457.25
Gross Return
+4.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.54%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 133 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,076.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 11:50am ET | $52.92 | 189 | $10,001.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $50.88 | 189 | $9,616.32 | $9,660.24 |
$-385.56 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 1:00pm ET | $52.76 | 183 | $9,654.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:35am ET | $54.86 | 183 | $10,039.09 | $10,044.39 |
+$384.15 (+4.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 12:50pm ET | $57.93 | 173 | $10,021.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $55.12 | 173 | $9,535.76 | $9,558.26 |
$-486.13 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 1:45pm ET | $53.49 | 178 | $9,521.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.79 | 178 | $9,040.62 | $9,077.66 |
$-480.60 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 9:55am ET | $50.60 | 179 | $9,057.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $50.71 | 179 | $9,077.09 | $9,097.15 |
+$19.49 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 12:30pm ET | $50.63 | 179 | $9,063.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET | $49.04 | 179 | $8,778.16 | $8,812.02 |
$-285.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 2:50pm ET | $50.90 | 173 | $8,805.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 10:20am ET | $52.00 | 173 | $8,996.00 | $9,002.32 |
+$190.30 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 12:15pm ET | $52.76 | 170 | $8,969.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 9:40am ET | $51.11 | 170 | $8,688.70 | $8,721.82 |
$-280.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 9:50am ET | $50.10 | 174 | $8,717.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $48.25 | 174 | $8,395.94 | $8,400.36 |
$-321.47 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 12:25pm ET | $47.92 | 175 | $8,386.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 9:40am ET | $48.89 | 175 | $8,555.77 | $8,569.57 |
+$169.21 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $48.84 | 175 | $8,547.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.89 | 175 | $8,730.75 | $8,753.32 |
+$183.75 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $48.37 | 180 | $8,706.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.76 | 180 | $8,596.80 | $8,643.52 |
$-109.80 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $47.53 | 181 | $8,602.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $48.53 | 181 | $8,783.93 | $8,824.52 |
+$181.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.37 | 186 | $8,810.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.82 | 186 | $9,265.68 | $9,279.38 |
+$454.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.33 | 184 | $9,259.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $48.71 | 184 | $8,962.64 | $8,982.15 |
$-297.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.41 | 185 | $8,955.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:10am ET | $46.95 | 185 | $8,685.90 | $8,712.19 |
$-269.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:45pm ET | $47.23 | 184 | $8,690.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $48.18 | 184 | $8,865.12 | $8,886.99 |
+$174.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.61 | 186 | $8,855.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:15pm ET | $48.69 | 186 | $9,056.34 | $9,087.87 |
+$200.88 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:45pm ET | $46.96 | 193 | $9,062.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.95 | 193 | $9,254.35 | $9,279.47 |
+$191.59 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:00pm ET | $49.03 | 189 | $9,266.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.33 | 189 | $9,512.39 | $9,525.19 |
+$245.72 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.69 | 191 | $9,490.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $48.12 | 191 | $9,190.92 | $9,225.32 |
$-299.87 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $47.28 | 195 | $9,219.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $47.23 | 195 | $9,209.85 | $9,215.57 |
$-9.75 (-0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
20.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:00am ET | $50.83 | 181 | $9,200.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:00am ET | $49.15 | 181 | $8,897.05 | $8,912.39 |
$-303.18 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:15am ET | $49.46 | 180 | $8,902.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.53 | 180 | $9,094.50 | $9,104.09 |
+$191.70 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $48.31 | 188 | $9,082.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.41 | 188 | $9,289.08 | $9,310.87 |
+$206.78 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $49.36 | 188 | $9,279.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.94 | 188 | $9,576.72 | $9,607.91 |
+$297.04 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $52.24 | 183 | $9,559.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $50.60 | 183 | $9,259.75 | $9,307.70 |
$-300.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $49.25 | 188 | $9,259.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.24 | 188 | $9,445.12 | $9,493.80 |
+$186.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.48 | 180 | $9,446.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.73 | 180 | $9,671.40 | $9,718.80 |
+$225.00 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.51 | 188 | $9,684.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.87 | 188 | $9,939.56 | $9,973.54 |
+$254.74 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $52.93 | 188 | $9,950.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $54.14 | 188 | $10,178.32 | $10,201.02 |
+$227.48 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $53.09 | 192 | $10,193.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $54.26 | 192 | $10,418.88 | $10,426.20 |
+$225.18 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 3:00pm ET | $55.83 | 186 | $10,384.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $57.10 | 186 | $10,620.62 | $10,662.44 |
+$236.24 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $54.83 | 194 | $10,636.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $55.94 | 194 | $10,851.39 | $10,877.78 |
+$215.34 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $56.67 | 191 | $10,823.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.67 | 191 | $10,441.97 | $10,495.78 |
$-382.00 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $56.23 | 186 | $10,458.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:50pm ET | $57.36 | 186 | $10,668.96 | $10,705.96 |
+$210.18 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $59.93 | 178 | $10,667.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $61.22 | 178 | $10,897.14 | $10,935.56 |
+$229.60 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 3:45pm ET | $62.39 | 175 | $10,918.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.95 | 175 | $10,491.25 | $10,508.56 |
$-427.00 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $55.53 | 189 | $10,495.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.63 | 189 | $10,892.07 | $10,905.46 |
+$396.90 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.22 | 197 | $10,878.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $56.47 | 197 | $11,124.59 | $11,151.71 |
+$246.25 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $50.68 | 220 | $11,149.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $49.76 | 220 | $10,948.30 | $10,950.41 |
$-201.30 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:25pm ET | $46.74 | 234 | $10,936.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.27 | 234 | $10,593.18 | $10,607.02 |
$-343.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $44.13 | 240 | $10,592.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $43.79 | 240 | $10,509.60 | $10,524.22 |
$-82.80 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $43.44 | 242 | $10,512.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $44.33 | 242 | $10,726.65 | $10,738.39 |
+$214.17 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $42.98 | 249 | $10,702.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $43.85 | 249 | $10,918.65 | $10,955.00 |
+$216.61 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $42.58 | 257 | $10,941.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $41.21 | 257 | $10,590.97 | $10,604.19 |
$-350.81 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $41.67 | 254 | $10,584.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $42.68 | 254 | $10,840.72 | $10,860.73 |
+$256.54 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $41.29 | 263 | $10,860.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $40.05 | 263 | $10,533.15 | $10,533.30 |
$-327.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,533.30
Net Profit/Loss:
+$533.30
Total Return:
+5.33%