SPY Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 30 trades in period
+10.64%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,902.64
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$13,469.64
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
53
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
17.7/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
9.5/15
Profit Factor
4.8/15
Consistency
7.2/10
Raw Quality
53.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 53.0
30-Day Momentum
51
+9.5%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
5
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.1
Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,480
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,469.64
Current Value
$14,902.64
Period P&L
$1,433.03
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
19 /
11
Best Trade
+3.49%
Worst Trade
-3.07%
Avg Trade Return
+0.32%
Avg Hold Time
4.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$826,690.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,433.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,433.03
Gross Return
+10.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,469.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:50am ET | $678.40 | 20 | $13,568.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $677.80 | 20 | $13,556.00 | $13,586.21 |
$-12.00 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $680.07 | 19 | $12,921.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $671.14 | 19 | $12,751.66 | $13,416.63 |
$-169.58 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $659.79 | 20 | $13,195.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $673.33 | 20 | $13,466.60 | $13,687.43 |
+$270.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $651.43 | 21 | $13,680.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $665.03 | 21 | $13,965.54 | $13,972.94 |
+$285.51 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:45am ET | $664.96 | 21 | $13,964.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $678.29 | 21 | $14,243.99 | $14,252.77 |
+$279.82 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:00am ET | $681.23 | 20 | $13,624.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $682.20 | 20 | $13,644.00 | $14,272.17 |
+$19.40 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:50am ET | $683.41 | 20 | $13,668.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:50am ET | $684.28 | 20 | $13,685.60 | $14,289.57 |
+$17.40 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $681.92 | 20 | $13,638.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 11:00am ET | $681.03 | 20 | $13,620.60 | $14,271.77 |
$-17.80 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 11:10am ET | $677.74 | 21 | $14,232.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $683.67 | 21 | $14,357.07 | $14,396.30 |
+$124.53 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET | $684.55 | 21 | $14,375.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $688.06 | 21 | $14,449.26 | $14,470.01 |
+$73.71 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET | $686.92 | 21 | $14,425.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $687.06 | 21 | $14,428.26 | $14,472.95 |
+$2.94 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $689.79 | 20 | $13,795.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $691.88 | 20 | $13,837.60 | $14,514.75 |
+$41.80 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $694.81 | 20 | $13,896.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $682.65 | 20 | $13,653.00 | $14,271.55 |
$-243.20 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $684.15 | 20 | $13,683.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $692.85 | 20 | $13,857.00 | $14,445.55 |
+$174.00 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $695.67 | 20 | $13,913.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $691.23 | 20 | $13,824.60 | $14,356.75 |
$-88.80 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $692.89 | 20 | $13,857.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $689.87 | 20 | $13,797.40 | $14,296.34 |
$-60.40 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $693.94 | 20 | $13,878.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $695.07 | 20 | $13,901.30 | $14,318.84 |
+$22.50 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $680.08 | 21 | $14,281.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $688.58 | 21 | $14,460.18 | $14,497.45 |
+$178.61 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $682.99 | 21 | $14,342.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $679.06 | 21 | $14,260.28 | $14,414.96 |
$-82.49 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $674.33 | 21 | $14,160.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $666.94 | 21 | $14,005.74 | $14,259.77 |
$-155.19 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $676.93 | 21 | $14,215.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $668.35 | 21 | $14,035.35 | $14,079.59 |
$-180.18 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $673.66 | 20 | $13,473.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $652.99 | 20 | $13,059.80 | $13,666.29 |
$-413.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $660.15 | 20 | $13,203.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $640.16 | 20 | $12,803.20 | $13,266.49 |
$-399.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $635.93 | 20 | $12,718.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:55pm ET | $648.85 | 20 | $12,977.00 | $13,524.89 |
+$258.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:55pm ET | $654.30 | 20 | $13,086.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $658.35 | 20 | $13,167.00 | $13,605.89 |
+$81.00 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $653.84 | 20 | $13,076.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $676.68 | 20 | $13,533.70 | $14,062.79 |
+$456.90 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $674.77 | 20 | $13,495.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $688.69 | 20 | $13,773.80 | $14,341.19 |
+$278.40 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $696.87 | 20 | $13,937.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $710.84 | 20 | $14,216.80 | $14,620.59 |
+$279.40 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $708.06 | 20 | $14,161.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $713.14 | 20 | $14,262.80 | $14,722.19 |
+$101.60 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $711.09 | 20 | $14,221.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $720.11 | 20 | $14,402.20 | $14,902.64 |
+$180.45 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,902.64
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,902.64
Total Return:
+49.03%