Compendium › Rebel Contraire › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 26 trades in period

-6.13%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,823.84
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$9,400.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 10:20:43

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 10.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 10.0

30-Day Momentum

3
-0.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.2 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,780
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,400.00
Current Value
$8,823.84
Period P&L
$-576.17
Max Drawdown
-15.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.27

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
10 / 16
Best Trade
+2.01%
Worst Trade
-1.81%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$470,763.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-576.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-576.17
Gross Return
-6.13%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,400.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 10:00am ET $89.83 104 $9,342.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $89.51 104 $9,308.52 $9,382.85 $-33.80
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 11:20am ET $89.95 104 $9,354.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $89.06 104 $9,261.72 $9,289.77 $-93.08
(-1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 10:55am ET $89.24 104 $9,280.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $89.87 104 $9,346.48 $9,355.29 +$65.52
(+0.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 10:50am ET $90.41 103 $9,311.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET $88.90 103 $9,156.19 $9,199.76 $-155.53
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:55am ET $88.62 103 $9,127.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET $88.13 103 $9,077.49 $9,149.39 $-50.37
(-0.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 9:55am ET $88.22 103 $9,086.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET $87.78 103 $9,041.34 $9,104.07 $-45.32
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 10:40am ET $87.57 103 $9,019.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET $87.41 103 $9,003.22 $9,087.58 $-16.49
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:35am ET $87.06 104 $9,054.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET $87.99 104 $9,150.44 $9,183.78 +$96.20
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET $87.72 104 $9,122.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $87.26 104 $9,074.52 $9,135.64 $-48.14
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET $87.16 104 $9,064.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $87.44 104 $9,093.76 $9,164.76 +$29.12
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 11:20am ET $87.66 104 $9,116.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $86.65 104 $9,011.60 $9,059.72 $-105.04
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET $86.63 104 $9,009.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:45am ET $88.37 104 $9,189.96 $9,240.68 +$180.96
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET $88.04 104 $9,155.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $87.04 104 $9,052.16 $9,137.20 $-103.48
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET $86.47 105 $9,079.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $87.14 105 $9,149.70 $9,207.55 +$70.35
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $88.42 104 $9,195.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $88.43 104 $9,197.24 $9,209.36 +$1.81
(+0.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
36m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET $89.88 102 $9,167.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $89.56 102 $9,134.61 $9,176.21 $-33.15
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:25am ET $89.85 102 $9,164.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $89.98 102 $9,177.96 $9,189.47 +$13.26
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:40am ET $89.26 102 $9,104.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $88.28 102 $9,004.56 $9,089.81 $-99.66
(-1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:50am ET $88.79 102 $9,056.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $87.18 102 $8,892.36 $8,926.10 $-163.71
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:20am ET $87.40 102 $8,914.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $86.18 102 $8,789.85 $8,801.14 $-124.96
(-1.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $85.69 102 $8,740.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $86.62 102 $8,835.24 $8,895.49 +$94.35
(+1.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET $86.76 102 $8,850.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $86.51 102 $8,824.02 $8,869.48 $-26.01
(-0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET $86.22 102 $8,794.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $86.43 102 $8,815.86 $8,890.39 +$20.91
(+0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $86.67 102 $8,839.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $87.10 102 $8,884.20 $8,934.76 +$44.37
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 10:45am ET $86.81 102 $8,854.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $86.49 102 $8,821.47 $8,902.12 $-32.64
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $86.11 103 $8,869.33 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $85.35 103 $8,791.05 $8,823.84 $-78.28
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,823.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,176.16
Total Return: -11.76%
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