TMO Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 40 trades in period
-9.33%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,847.24
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$9,757.23
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
10.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.4
30-Day Momentum
5
-6.8%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8
Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,930
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
125 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,757.23
Current Value
$8,847.24
Period P&L
$-909.95
Max Drawdown
-23.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
21 /
19
Best Trade
+3.93%
Worst Trade
-9.92%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$752,900.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-909.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$-909.95
Gross Return
-9.33%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.33%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 125 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,757.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 11:40am ET | $566.85 | 17 | $9,636.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $574.46 | 17 | $9,765.74 | $9,849.76 |
+$129.29 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 1:15pm ET | $584.91 | 16 | $9,358.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 11:55am ET | $597.15 | 16 | $9,554.40 | $10,045.60 |
+$195.84 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 3:15pm ET | $580.78 | 17 | $9,873.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $559.41 | 17 | $9,509.97 | $9,682.31 |
$-363.29 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $570.15 | 16 | $9,122.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET | $581.86 | 16 | $9,309.76 | $9,869.67 |
+$187.36 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:00pm ET | $582.80 | 16 | $9,324.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $595.86 | 16 | $9,533.68 | $10,078.55 |
+$208.88 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 10:40am ET | $589.60 | 17 | $10,023.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:40am ET | $588.14 | 17 | $9,998.38 | $10,053.73 |
$-24.82 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 12:05pm ET | $581.23 | 17 | $9,880.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $561.18 | 17 | $9,540.06 | $9,712.88 |
$-340.85 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 10:00am ET | $572.24 | 16 | $9,155.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $566.88 | 16 | $9,070.00 | $9,627.04 |
$-85.84 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 1:35pm ET | $575.17 | 16 | $9,202.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 1:35pm ET | $563.27 | 16 | $9,012.24 | $9,436.56 |
$-190.48 (-2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 1:35pm ET | $566.55 | 16 | $9,064.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 1:35pm ET | $575.42 | 16 | $9,206.64 | $9,578.40 |
+$141.84 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 10:10am ET | $576.83 | 16 | $9,229.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 10:10am ET | $582.34 | 16 | $9,317.44 | $9,666.56 |
+$88.16 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET | $581.76 | 16 | $9,308.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $593.54 | 16 | $9,496.64 | $9,855.04 |
+$188.48 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $605.39 | 16 | $9,686.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $618.99 | 16 | $9,903.84 | $10,072.64 |
+$217.60 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $619.33 | 16 | $9,909.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:00am ET | $615.84 | 16 | $9,853.44 | $10,016.80 |
$-55.84 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $611.25 | 16 | $9,780.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $624.53 | 16 | $9,992.48 | $10,229.28 |
+$212.48 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:20am ET | $627.81 | 16 | $10,044.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $608.79 | 16 | $9,740.64 | $9,924.96 |
$-304.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $628.87 | 15 | $9,432.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $641.46 | 15 | $9,621.90 | $10,113.88 |
+$188.93 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $632.45 | 15 | $9,486.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $616.38 | 15 | $9,245.70 | $9,872.83 |
$-241.05 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:20pm ET | $592.93 | 16 | $9,486.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $574.57 | 16 | $9,193.12 | $9,579.07 |
$-293.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 1:55pm ET | $581.61 | 16 | $9,305.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $563.06 | 16 | $9,008.96 | $9,282.19 |
$-296.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $545.69 | 17 | $9,276.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $545.90 | 17 | $9,280.30 | $9,285.77 |
+$3.57 (+0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $501.68 | 18 | $9,030.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 12:15pm ET | $512.00 | 18 | $9,216.00 | $9,471.53 |
+$185.76 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 12:35pm ET | $505.86 | 18 | $9,105.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $516.48 | 18 | $9,296.73 | $9,662.78 |
+$191.25 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 2:35pm ET | $516.40 | 18 | $9,295.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $512.74 | 18 | $9,229.32 | $9,596.90 |
$-65.88 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $497.93 | 19 | $9,460.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $508.58 | 19 | $9,663.02 | $9,799.25 |
+$202.35 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $511.70 | 19 | $9,722.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $494.80 | 19 | $9,401.29 | $9,478.24 |
$-321.01 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $498.96 | 18 | $8,981.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $483.17 | 18 | $8,697.06 | $9,194.07 |
$-284.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $466.15 | 19 | $8,856.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $476.99 | 19 | $9,062.81 | $9,399.93 |
+$205.86 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $467.23 | 20 | $9,344.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:00pm ET | $476.59 | 20 | $9,531.80 | $9,587.13 |
+$187.20 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $481.45 | 19 | $9,147.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $491.51 | 19 | $9,338.69 | $9,778.37 |
+$191.24 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $488.69 | 20 | $9,773.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:30pm ET | $473.95 | 20 | $9,478.91 | $9,483.48 |
$-294.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $481.13 | 19 | $9,141.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:50pm ET | $490.89 | 19 | $9,326.91 | $9,669.02 |
+$185.54 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $494.83 | 19 | $9,401.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:00pm ET | $485.31 | 19 | $9,220.89 | $9,488.23 |
$-180.79 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $485.88 | 19 | $9,231.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $504.98 | 19 | $9,594.62 | $9,851.13 |
+$362.90 (+3.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $496.04 | 19 | $9,424.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:40pm ET | $506.34 | 19 | $9,620.46 | $10,046.83 |
+$195.70 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $528.22 | 19 | $10,036.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $522.44 | 19 | $9,926.36 | $9,936.92 |
$-109.91 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $525.10 | 18 | $9,451.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $536.72 | 18 | $9,661.05 | $10,146.08 |
+$209.16 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $522.50 | 19 | $9,927.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $470.67 | 19 | $8,942.64 | $9,161.22 |
$-984.86 (-9.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $470.41 | 19 | $8,937.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $468.33 | 19 | $8,898.36 | $9,121.79 |
$-39.43 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:55am ET | $475.05 | 19 | $9,025.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $460.60 | 19 | $8,751.40 | $8,847.24 |
$-274.55 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,847.24
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,152.76
Total Return:
-11.53%