TSLA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 51 trades in period
-8.95%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,990.09
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$14,266.28
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.8/35
Total Return
12.4/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
28.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 28.4
30-Day Momentum
80
+20.2%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
3.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 92.3
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+52 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,565
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$14,266.28
Current Value
$12,990.09
Period P&L
$-1,276.19
Max Drawdown
-37.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
28 /
23
Best Trade
+6.56%
Worst Trade
-4.83%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,281,912.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,276.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,276.19
Gross Return
-8.95%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.95%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $14,266.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 3:40pm ET | $447.04 | 31 | $13,858.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $429.82 | 31 | $13,324.33 | $13,725.88 |
$-533.91 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:55am ET | $444.08 | 30 | $13,322.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 10:40am ET | $430.28 | 30 | $12,908.46 | $13,311.94 |
$-413.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 12:40pm ET | $401.16 | 33 | $13,238.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $386.81 | 33 | $12,764.86 | $12,838.53 |
$-473.42 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 12:20pm ET | $419.74 | 30 | $12,592.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:35pm ET | $405.70 | 30 | $12,170.85 | $12,417.18 |
$-421.35 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 3:10pm ET | $404.19 | 30 | $12,125.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $419.17 | 30 | $12,575.10 | $12,866.66 |
+$449.48 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 9:45am ET | $397.44 | 32 | $12,717.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 11:00am ET | $385.02 | 32 | $12,320.48 | $12,469.22 |
$-397.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:05pm ET | $418.35 | 29 | $12,132.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $432.08 | 29 | $12,530.32 | $12,867.54 |
+$398.31 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 1:40pm ET | $428.26 | 30 | $12,847.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 9:45am ET | $437.09 | 30 | $13,112.70 | $13,132.44 |
+$264.90 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $449.16 | 29 | $13,025.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 10:45am ET | $458.77 | 29 | $13,304.33 | $13,411.13 |
+$278.69 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 11:00am ET | $439.57 | 30 | $13,187.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:45am ET | $448.93 | 30 | $13,467.75 | $13,691.69 |
+$280.57 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 1:25pm ET | $445.43 | 30 | $13,362.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 3:10pm ET | $455.41 | 30 | $13,662.22 | $13,991.13 |
+$299.44 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 3:15pm ET | $445.53 | 31 | $13,811.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $458.15 | 31 | $14,202.71 | $14,382.51 |
+$391.38 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $473.25 | 30 | $14,197.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 2:40pm ET | $483.45 | 30 | $14,503.64 | $14,688.65 |
+$306.14 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 3:35pm ET | $468.17 | 31 | $14,513.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $478.80 | 31 | $14,842.80 | $15,018.18 |
+$329.53 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 10:25am ET | $480.55 | 31 | $14,896.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $494.57 | 31 | $15,331.52 | $15,452.80 |
+$434.62 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:35am ET | $486.48 | 31 | $15,080.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $463.85 | 31 | $14,379.31 | $14,751.24 |
$-701.57 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $456.39 | 32 | $14,604.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $441.60 | 32 | $14,131.20 | $14,277.96 |
$-473.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $453.72 | 31 | $14,065.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $439.93 | 31 | $13,637.83 | $13,850.51 |
$-427.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $433.76 | 31 | $13,446.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $443.62 | 31 | $13,752.22 | $14,156.17 |
+$305.66 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $447.89 | 31 | $13,884.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $427.71 | 31 | $13,258.86 | $13,530.44 |
$-625.74 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $427.71 | 31 | $13,259.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $437.19 | 31 | $13,552.89 | $13,824.32 |
+$293.88 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $446.39 | 30 | $13,391.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $432.52 | 30 | $12,975.45 | $13,408.06 |
$-416.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $434.05 | 30 | $13,021.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $419.81 | 30 | $12,594.30 | $12,980.86 |
$-427.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $436.45 | 29 | $12,657.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.36 | 29 | $12,045.44 | $12,369.30 |
$-611.57 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $420.75 | 29 | $12,201.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:05am ET | $407.87 | 29 | $11,828.23 | $11,995.77 |
$-373.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $390.30 | 30 | $11,709.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $398.23 | 30 | $11,946.80 | $12,233.42 |
+$237.65 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
42m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $413.14 | 29 | $11,980.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.25 | 29 | $12,245.25 | $12,497.75 |
+$264.33 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $412.86 | 30 | $12,385.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $407.29 | 30 | $12,218.70 | $12,330.65 |
$-167.10 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $402.25 | 30 | $12,067.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 3:50pm ET | $410.70 | 30 | $12,321.00 | $12,584.15 |
+$253.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $409.75 | 30 | $12,292.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.92 | 30 | $11,727.60 | $12,019.15 |
$-565.00 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $392.50 | 30 | $11,775.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $402.95 | 30 | $12,088.35 | $12,332.50 |
+$313.35 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $404.60 | 30 | $12,138.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.44 | 30 | $11,713.20 | $11,907.70 |
$-424.80 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $402.27 | 29 | $11,665.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $411.71 | 29 | $11,939.59 | $12,181.46 |
+$273.76 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $397.81 | 30 | $11,934.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $398.53 | 30 | $11,955.90 | $12,203.06 |
+$21.60 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $397.96 | 30 | $11,938.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $386.00 | 30 | $11,580.00 | $11,844.26 |
$-358.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $379.01 | 31 | $11,749.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:10pm ET | $367.21 | 31 | $11,383.51 | $11,478.46 |
$-365.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $383.29 | 29 | $11,115.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $394.00 | 29 | $11,426.00 | $11,789.05 |
+$310.59 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $380.83 | 30 | $11,424.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.52 | 30 | $11,055.75 | $11,420.05 |
$-369.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 11:15am ET | $362.22 | 31 | $11,228.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $369.75 | 31 | $11,462.25 | $11,653.48 |
+$233.43 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET | $380.78 | 30 | $11,423.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.39 | 30 | $10,931.69 | $11,161.77 |
$-491.71 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $363.17 | 30 | $10,895.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $351.37 | 30 | $10,541.10 | $10,807.77 |
$-354.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $341.45 | 31 | $10,584.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.84 | 31 | $11,279.04 | $11,501.92 |
+$694.15 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $338.61 | 33 | $11,174.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $347.49 | 33 | $11,467.17 | $11,794.80 |
+$292.88 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:30pm ET | $343.68 | 34 | $11,685.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $353.57 | 34 | $12,021.38 | $12,131.06 |
+$336.26 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:05am ET | $358.18 | 33 | $11,819.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $365.93 | 33 | $12,075.69 | $12,386.81 |
+$255.75 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:35pm ET | $391.35 | 31 | $12,131.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $401.28 | 31 | $12,439.68 | $12,694.56 |
+$307.75 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $390.69 | 32 | $12,502.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.69 | 32 | $11,958.08 | $12,150.56 |
$-544.00 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $374.92 | 32 | $11,997.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $373.41 | 32 | $11,949.12 | $12,102.08 |
$-48.48 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $376.98 | 32 | $12,063.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $385.67 | 32 | $12,341.40 | $12,379.96 |
+$277.88 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $388.95 | 31 | $12,057.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $399.62 | 31 | $12,388.22 | $12,710.73 |
+$330.77 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $387.74 | 32 | $12,407.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $396.47 | 32 | $12,687.04 | $12,990.09 |
+$279.36 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,990.09
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,990.09
Total Return:
+29.90%