VTI Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 30 trades in period
+8.10%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,560.99
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$13,469.51
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
49
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.2/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
8.7/15
Profit Factor
4.2/15
Consistency
7.2/10
Raw Quality
49.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 48.8
30-Day Momentum
50
+9.2%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
5
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 71.0
Conf: 0.70×
Steady (+1 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,313
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,469.51
Current Value
$14,560.99
Period P&L
$1,091.50
Max Drawdown
-10.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
19 /
11
Best Trade
+3.10%
Worst Trade
-3.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$831,202.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,091.50
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,091.50
Gross Return
+8.10%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.10%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,469.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:50am ET | $333.31 | 40 | $13,332.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $333.46 | 40 | $13,338.38 | $13,598.68 |
+$5.98 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $334.38 | 40 | $13,375.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $329.46 | 40 | $13,178.40 | $13,401.86 |
$-196.82 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 9:50am ET | $323.78 | 41 | $13,274.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $330.54 | 41 | $13,552.14 | $13,679.02 |
+$277.16 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $319.65 | 42 | $13,425.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 2:20pm ET | $326.19 | 42 | $13,699.77 | $13,953.70 |
+$274.68 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 2:20pm ET | $328.63 | 42 | $13,802.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 11:40am ET | $335.26 | 42 | $14,081.05 | $14,232.29 |
+$278.59 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 12:20pm ET | $335.82 | 42 | $14,104.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET | $336.38 | 42 | $14,127.96 | $14,255.81 |
+$23.52 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 1:05pm ET | $336.79 | 42 | $14,145.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 1:05pm ET | $336.81 | 42 | $14,146.02 | $14,256.65 |
+$0.84 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 1:20pm ET | $336.54 | 42 | $14,134.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 1:20pm ET | $334.97 | 42 | $14,068.74 | $14,190.71 |
$-65.94 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $333.65 | 42 | $14,013.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 10:35am ET | $336.72 | 42 | $14,142.24 | $14,319.65 |
+$128.94 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 11:30am ET | $338.01 | 42 | $14,196.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $338.72 | 42 | $14,226.24 | $14,349.47 |
+$29.82 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:40am ET | $338.11 | 42 | $14,200.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $338.21 | 42 | $14,204.82 | $14,353.88 |
+$4.41 (+0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:40am ET | $339.74 | 42 | $14,269.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $341.22 | 42 | $14,331.24 | $14,416.04 |
+$62.16 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $342.90 | 42 | $14,401.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.46 | 42 | $14,173.32 | $14,187.56 |
$-228.48 (-1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $338.48 | 41 | $13,877.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $342.06 | 41 | $14,024.46 | $14,334.34 |
+$146.78 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $343.52 | 41 | $14,084.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.36 | 41 | $13,954.96 | $14,204.80 |
$-129.54 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $341.52 | 41 | $14,002.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.48 | 41 | $13,959.68 | $14,161.95 |
$-42.84 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $342.57 | 41 | $14,045.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $343.26 | 41 | $14,073.65 | $14,190.05 |
+$28.10 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $335.88 | 42 | $14,106.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.73 | 42 | $14,268.66 | $14,351.75 |
+$161.70 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $336.92 | 42 | $14,150.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.24 | 42 | $14,080.08 | $14,281.19 |
$-70.56 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $332.69 | 42 | $13,972.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $328.35 | 42 | $13,790.75 | $14,098.96 |
$-182.23 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $333.73 | 42 | $14,016.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $329.15 | 42 | $13,824.30 | $13,906.60 |
$-192.36 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $332.02 | 41 | $13,612.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $321.96 | 41 | $13,200.36 | $13,494.14 |
$-412.46 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $325.35 | 41 | $13,339.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $315.31 | 41 | $12,927.71 | $13,082.57 |
$-411.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $313.19 | 41 | $12,840.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:05pm ET | $319.58 | 41 | $13,102.98 | $13,344.77 |
+$262.20 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $324.77 | 41 | $13,315.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $324.59 | 41 | $13,308.19 | $13,337.39 |
$-7.38 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:05pm ET | $324.20 | 41 | $13,292.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.23 | 41 | $13,703.52 | $13,748.92 |
+$411.53 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $333.01 | 41 | $13,653.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.80 | 41 | $13,932.00 | $14,027.51 |
+$278.59 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $343.74 | 40 | $13,749.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $350.86 | 40 | $14,034.20 | $14,311.91 |
+$284.40 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $349.96 | 40 | $13,998.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $351.85 | 40 | $14,074.00 | $14,387.35 |
+$75.44 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $350.78 | 41 | $14,381.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $355.02 | 41 | $14,555.62 | $14,560.99 |
+$173.64 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,560.99
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,560.99
Total Return:
+45.61%