WMT Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 38 trades in period
+3.36%
Last 6 Months Return
$16,344.03
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$15,813.08
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
74 overbought
20d Trend
+6.1%
5d Trend
+7.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
48
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
15.6/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
9.0/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
48.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 48.3
30-Day Momentum
6
-5.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.0
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-42 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,374
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$15,813.08
Current Value
$16,344.03
Period P&L
$530.98
Max Drawdown
-14.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
23 /
15
Best Trade
+3.04%
Worst Trade
-3.31%
Avg Trade Return
+0.09%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,302,745.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$530.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$530.98
Gross Return
+3.36%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.36%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 WMT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $15,813.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 10:00am ET | $115.37 | 138 | $15,921.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $113.87 | 138 | $15,714.06 | $15,746.81 |
$-207.00 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 9:50am ET | $111.32 | 141 | $15,696.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $111.93 | 141 | $15,782.13 | $15,832.82 |
+$86.01 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 9:55am ET | $112.07 | 141 | $15,801.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.85 | 141 | $15,911.85 | $15,943.49 |
+$110.67 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $112.34 | 141 | $15,839.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $114.60 | 141 | $16,158.60 | $16,262.86 |
+$319.37 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $113.61 | 143 | $16,246.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $117.06 | 143 | $16,739.58 | $16,756.21 |
+$493.35 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $119.00 | 140 | $16,660.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.15 | 140 | $16,961.00 | $17,057.19 |
+$300.99 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $117.61 | 145 | $17,053.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $120.03 | 145 | $17,404.35 | $17,407.62 |
+$350.42 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:00pm ET | $117.94 | 147 | $17,336.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:00pm ET | $116.68 | 147 | $17,151.23 | $17,222.40 |
$-185.22 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $116.86 | 147 | $17,178.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:40pm ET | $119.20 | 147 | $17,522.40 | $17,566.38 |
+$343.98 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $126.75 | 138 | $17,490.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:20pm ET | $129.32 | 138 | $17,846.16 | $17,921.73 |
+$355.35 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $127.18 | 140 | $17,805.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $129.90 | 140 | $18,185.30 | $18,301.83 |
+$380.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $129.54 | 141 | $18,265.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $127.10 | 141 | $17,920.68 | $17,957.44 |
$-344.39 (-1.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $132.21 | 135 | $17,849.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.12 | 135 | $17,296.20 | $17,404.61 |
$-552.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $128.65 | 135 | $17,368.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:35pm ET | $124.55 | 135 | $16,814.25 | $16,850.44 |
$-554.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $125.77 | 133 | $16,727.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $128.50 | 133 | $17,090.50 | $17,213.53 |
+$363.09 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $126.51 | 136 | $17,206.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $122.53 | 136 | $16,664.08 | $16,671.57 |
$-541.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $123.44 | 135 | $16,664.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $125.95 | 135 | $17,003.25 | $17,010.42 |
+$338.85 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:25pm ET | $123.94 | 137 | $16,979.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $126.42 | 137 | $17,319.54 | $17,350.18 |
+$339.76 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:40am ET | $125.08 | 138 | $17,261.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $120.99 | 138 | $16,695.93 | $16,785.06 |
$-565.12 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 10:25am ET | $119.28 | 140 | $16,698.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $121.83 | 140 | $17,056.20 | $17,142.76 |
+$357.70 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:40am ET | $122.65 | 139 | $17,048.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:40am ET | $124.39 | 139 | $17,290.21 | $17,384.62 |
+$241.86 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:20pm ET | $123.78 | 140 | $17,328.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $126.20 | 140 | $17,668.00 | $17,724.12 |
+$339.50 (+2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET | $124.72 | 142 | $17,710.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $127.43 | 142 | $18,095.06 | $18,108.27 |
+$384.15 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $128.04 | 141 | $18,052.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $124.14 | 141 | $17,503.04 | $17,558.37 |
$-549.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $124.92 | 140 | $17,488.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $127.44 | 140 | $17,841.60 | $17,911.17 |
+$352.80 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $127.53 | 140 | $17,853.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $130.13 | 140 | $18,217.50 | $18,275.17 |
+$364.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $131.12 | 139 | $18,225.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $127.06 | 139 | $17,661.28 | $17,710.78 |
$-564.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $126.56 | 139 | $17,591.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $129.31 | 139 | $17,974.09 | $18,093.72 |
+$382.94 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $132.28 | 136 | $17,990.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $130.48 | 136 | $17,744.60 | $17,848.24 |
$-245.48 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $129.52 | 137 | $17,744.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $129.07 | 137 | $17,682.59 | $17,786.59 |
$-61.65 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $131.28 | 135 | $17,722.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $132.08 | 135 | $17,830.80 | $17,894.59 |
+$108.00 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 12:05pm ET | $134.90 | 132 | $17,806.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $130.43 | 132 | $17,216.76 | $17,304.55 |
$-590.04 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $121.21 | 142 | $17,211.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.19 | 142 | $16,782.98 | $16,875.71 |
$-428.84 (-2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $118.60 | 142 | $16,841.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $114.99 | 142 | $16,327.87 | $16,362.38 |
$-513.33 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 11:15am ET | $113.61 | 144 | $16,360.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $115.99 | 144 | $16,702.56 | $16,704.38 |
+$342.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $118.61 | 140 | $16,605.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $119.46 | 140 | $16,724.40 | $16,823.38 |
+$119.00 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $119.57 | 140 | $16,739.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $120.01 | 140 | $16,801.40 | $16,884.98 |
+$61.60 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $121.79 | 138 | $16,807.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $117.87 | 138 | $16,266.07 | $16,344.03 |
$-540.95 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,344.03
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,344.03
Total Return:
+63.44%