XLE Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 38 trades in period
+34.46%
Last 6 Months Return
$17,738.33
Current Value
74%
Win Rate
$13,192.55
Period Start
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
55
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
21.0/35
Total Return
15.7/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
55.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 54.7
30-Day Momentum
3
-10.4%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-52 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,119
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,192.55
Current Value
$17,738.33
Period P&L
$4,545.85
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
38
Winners / Losers
28 /
10
Best Trade
+4.96%
Worst Trade
-3.72%
Avg Trade Return
+0.79%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,329,838.54
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,545.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,545.85
Gross Return
+34.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+34.46%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 38 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,192.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:40am ET | $44.47 | 299 | $13,295.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.41 | 299 | $13,278.59 | $13,291.15 |
$-16.45 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 12:00pm ET | $44.30 | 300 | $13,290.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.61 | 300 | $13,382.55 | $13,383.70 |
+$92.55 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:20am ET | $44.86 | 298 | $13,368.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.09 | 298 | $14,031.33 | $14,046.46 |
+$662.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $46.35 | 303 | $14,042.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.40 | 303 | $14,059.20 | $14,063.12 |
+$16.66 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $47.06 | 298 | $14,022.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $48.00 | 298 | $14,304.00 | $14,344.73 |
+$281.61 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $47.67 | 300 | $14,299.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET | $47.85 | 300 | $14,355.00 | $14,400.20 |
+$55.47 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $48.74 | 295 | $14,376.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.74 | 295 | $14,673.30 | $14,696.68 |
+$296.48 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $49.12 | 299 | $14,686.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.42 | 299 | $15,373.09 | $15,382.88 |
+$686.21 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.31 | 305 | $15,344.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $51.37 | 305 | $15,667.85 | $15,706.18 |
+$323.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $52.60 | 298 | $15,675.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $53.56 | 298 | $15,959.39 | $15,990.17 |
+$283.99 (+1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $53.55 | 298 | $15,957.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.69 | 298 | $16,299.11 | $16,331.38 |
+$341.21 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $54.13 | 301 | $16,293.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.26 | 301 | $16,633.26 | $16,671.51 |
+$340.13 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.11 | 302 | $16,643.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.34 | 302 | $16,712.68 | $16,740.97 |
+$69.46 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $55.31 | 302 | $16,703.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.61 | 302 | $17,398.22 | $17,435.57 |
+$694.60 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $56.59 | 308 | $17,431.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.68 | 308 | $17,457.44 | $17,461.90 |
+$26.33 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $55.67 | 313 | $17,425.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 2:40pm ET | $56.80 | 313 | $17,778.40 | $17,815.12 |
+$353.22 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $57.82 | 308 | $17,808.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:45am ET | $58.98 | 308 | $18,165.84 | $18,172.40 |
+$357.28 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $58.69 | 309 | $18,136.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $59.97 | 309 | $18,529.71 | $18,565.36 |
+$392.96 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 1:30pm ET | $59.53 | 311 | $18,513.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $60.73 | 311 | $18,887.03 | $18,938.56 |
+$373.20 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:15am ET | $60.74 | 311 | $18,890.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $61.97 | 311 | $19,273.79 | $19,322.21 |
+$383.65 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $63.08 | 306 | $19,302.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:10pm ET | $60.83 | 306 | $18,613.98 | $18,633.71 |
$-688.50 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:20pm ET | $58.47 | 318 | $18,591.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.17 | 318 | $19,132.47 | $19,174.28 |
+$540.57 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $59.22 | 323 | $19,128.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.46 | 323 | $19,526.97 | $19,572.38 |
+$398.10 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $57.31 | 341 | $19,542.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $58.67 | 341 | $20,006.47 | $20,036.14 |
+$463.76 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $56.90 | 352 | $20,027.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 10:10am ET | $55.63 | 352 | $19,583.52 | $19,592.62 |
$-443.52 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $56.49 | 346 | $19,547.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.39 | 346 | $18,819.63 | $18,864.98 |
$-727.64 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:10am ET | $55.53 | 339 | $18,826.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.67 | 339 | $19,211.13 | $19,249.74 |
+$384.76 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $56.67 | 339 | $19,211.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $57.49 | 339 | $19,490.80 | $19,529.42 |
+$279.68 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:45pm ET | $58.81 | 332 | $19,526.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:45pm ET | $59.26 | 332 | $19,672.66 | $19,675.50 |
+$146.08 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $59.58 | 330 | $19,663.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.46 | 330 | $18,961.80 | $18,974.25 |
$-701.25 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.52 | 341 | $18,933.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 10:50am ET | $56.76 | 341 | $19,356.86 | $19,397.19 |
+$422.94 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 3:30pm ET | $57.68 | 336 | $19,380.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $58.88 | 336 | $19,782.00 | $19,798.71 |
+$401.52 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 12:40pm ET | $60.60 | 326 | $19,755.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.84 | 326 | $19,181.84 | $19,224.95 |
$-573.76 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $57.38 | 335 | $19,222.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $57.15 | 335 | $19,143.58 | $19,146.22 |
$-78.73 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:05pm ET | $58.06 | 329 | $19,103.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 12:15pm ET | $59.28 | 329 | $19,503.12 | $19,545.96 |
+$399.74 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $58.90 | 331 | $19,494.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $57.08 | 331 | $18,895.13 | $18,946.85 |
$-599.11 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $58.54 | 323 | $18,910.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.71 | 323 | $18,315.72 | $18,352.53 |
$-594.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.22 | 332 | $18,331.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.37 | 332 | $17,717.18 | $17,738.33 |
$-614.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$17,738.33
Net Profit/Loss:
+$7,738.33
Total Return:
+77.38%