XLF Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-22 to present • 30 trades in period
+4.13%
Last 6 Months Return
$13,935.48
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$13,383.05
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
36
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.8/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
2.9/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
37.1/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 36.2
30-Day Momentum
34
+4.3%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 51.7
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,641
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$13,383.05
Current Value
$13,935.48
Period P&L
$552.40
Max Drawdown
-17.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
16 /
14
Best Trade
+2.85%
Worst Trade
-3.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
4.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$799,588.51
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$552.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$552.40
Gross Return
+4.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.13%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,383.05 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 9:45am ET | $54.64 | 244 | $13,330.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 9:45am ET | $55.59 | 244 | $13,562.74 | $13,564.85 |
+$231.80 (+1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 12:40pm ET | $55.49 | 244 | $13,539.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 12:40pm ET | $54.99 | 244 | $13,417.56 | $13,442.85 |
$-122.00 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $54.66 | 245 | $13,390.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $55.76 | 245 | $13,661.20 | $13,713.58 |
+$270.72 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $56.32 | 243 | $13,685.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.86 | 243 | $13,329.77 | $13,357.58 |
$-356.00 (-2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $54.82 | 243 | $13,321.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.73 | 243 | $13,055.18 | $13,091.50 |
$-266.09 (-2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.59 | 244 | $13,075.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.29 | 244 | $13,002.76 | $13,018.30 |
$-73.20 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $52.94 | 245 | $12,969.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.59 | 245 | $13,129.55 | $13,178.77 |
+$160.48 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $53.83 | 244 | $13,135.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.24 | 244 | $13,235.78 | $13,278.81 |
+$100.04 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $53.88 | 246 | $13,255.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $53.69 | 246 | $13,206.51 | $13,229.61 |
$-49.20 (-0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1.5h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.06 | 254 | $13,221.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.25 | 254 | $13,271.50 | $13,279.14 |
+$49.53 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.47 | 263 | $13,273.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $51.51 | 263 | $13,548.44 | $13,553.97 |
+$274.83 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $52.27 | 259 | $13,537.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.69 | 259 | $13,127.42 | $13,143.46 |
$-410.51 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.35 | 261 | $13,141.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:35pm ET | $51.38 | 261 | $13,408.88 | $13,410.99 |
+$267.53 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $51.49 | 260 | $13,388.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $49.90 | 260 | $12,974.75 | $12,997.56 |
$-413.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $49.69 | 261 | $12,967.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.32 | 261 | $12,872.52 | $12,902.29 |
$-95.27 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.74 | 259 | $12,881.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.80 | 259 | $12,898.20 | $12,919.12 |
+$16.83 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.87 | 264 | $12,901.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.87 | 264 | $13,165.68 | $13,183.12 |
+$264.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.17 | 268 | $13,178.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $48.62 | 268 | $13,030.16 | $13,034.38 |
$-148.74 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $49.19 | 264 | $12,986.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $49.67 | 264 | $13,111.56 | $13,159.78 |
+$125.40 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $49.82 | 264 | $13,152.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.24 | 264 | $13,527.33 | $13,534.66 |
+$374.88 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $50.92 | 265 | $13,492.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.67 | 265 | $13,691.23 | $13,733.41 |
+$198.75 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.99 | 264 | $13,724.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $52.69 | 264 | $13,908.84 | $13,918.21 |
+$184.80 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $52.85 | 263 | $13,899.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.38 | 263 | $13,512.94 | $13,531.57 |
$-386.64 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $52.15 | 259 | $13,506.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.72 | 259 | $13,395.48 | $13,420.20 |
$-111.37 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.41 | 261 | $13,418.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.31 | 261 | $13,391.91 | $13,394.10 |
$-26.10 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.26 | 261 | $13,378.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.12 | 261 | $13,342.32 | $13,357.56 |
$-36.54 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $51.44 | 259 | $13,322.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.02 | 259 | $13,473.18 | $13,507.78 |
+$150.22 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.80 | 260 | $13,468.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.27 | 260 | $13,330.20 | $13,369.98 |
$-137.80 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.37 | 260 | $13,354.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.40 | 260 | $13,624.00 | $13,639.08 |
+$269.10 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.28 | 260 | $13,591.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $53.42 | 260 | $13,887.90 | $13,935.48 |
+$296.40 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,935.48
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,935.48
Total Return:
+39.35%