ADBE Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 31 trades in period
-10.53%
Year to Date Return
$6,686.24
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$7,473.29
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
4.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality
8.6/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 8.5
30-Day Momentum
52
+10.6%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
7
Trades
2.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 66.8
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+43 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,328
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$7,473.29
Current Value
$6,686.24
Period P&L
$-787.02
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
17 /
14
Best Trade
+4.25%
Worst Trade
-9.19%
Avg Trade Return
-0.30%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$424,585.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-787.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-787.02
Gross Return
-10.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.53%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $7,473.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 1:40pm ET | $354.11 | 21 | $7,436.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $342.68 | 21 | $7,196.18 | $7,323.65 |
$-240.03 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $330.30 | 22 | $7,266.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $339.80 | 22 | $7,475.58 | $7,532.74 |
+$209.09 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $336.00 | 22 | $7,391.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $342.79 | 22 | $7,541.27 | $7,682.12 |
+$149.38 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $330.73 | 23 | $7,606.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $320.67 | 23 | $7,375.41 | $7,450.74 |
$-231.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $304.84 | 24 | $7,316.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $292.98 | 24 | $7,031.52 | $7,166.22 |
$-284.52 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $289.67 | 24 | $6,951.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $299.30 | 24 | $7,183.20 | $7,397.46 |
+$231.24 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $300.98 | 24 | $7,223.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $300.13 | 24 | $7,203.12 | $7,377.06 |
$-20.40 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:30am ET | $286.36 | 25 | $7,159.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $293.24 | 25 | $7,331.12 | $7,549.18 |
+$172.12 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $296.42 | 25 | $7,410.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.01 | 25 | $7,050.25 | $7,189.05 |
$-360.12 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.94 | 27 | $7,153.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET | $272.06 | 27 | $7,345.62 | $7,381.29 |
+$192.24 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
36m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $273.21 | 27 | $7,376.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $264.75 | 27 | $7,148.25 | $7,152.87 |
$-228.42 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $267.80 | 26 | $6,962.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $267.97 | 26 | $6,967.22 | $7,157.42 |
+$4.55 (+0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $261.12 | 27 | $7,050.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.14 | 27 | $6,861.78 | $6,968.96 |
$-188.46 (-2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $252.46 | 27 | $6,816.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.14 | 27 | $6,996.78 | $7,149.32 |
+$180.36 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.44 | 27 | $6,896.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 1:05pm ET | $261.19 | 27 | $7,052.13 | $7,304.57 |
+$155.25 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $262.19 | 27 | $7,079.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $268.92 | 27 | $7,260.84 | $7,486.28 |
+$181.71 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $274.90 | 27 | $7,422.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $281.88 | 27 | $7,610.76 | $7,674.61 |
+$188.33 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $279.98 | 27 | $7,559.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $269.50 | 27 | $7,276.50 | $7,391.51 |
$-283.09 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 10:20am ET | $272.59 | 27 | $7,359.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.22 | 27 | $6,809.94 | $6,841.52 |
$-549.99 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.61 | 27 | $6,685.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $252.65 | 27 | $6,821.55 | $6,977.60 |
+$136.08 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $255.03 | 27 | $6,885.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $246.94 | 27 | $6,667.44 | $6,759.24 |
$-218.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $274.90 | 27 | $7,422.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.65 | 27 | $6,740.42 | $6,077.22 |
$-682.02 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $240.13 | 25 | $6,003.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $239.52 | 25 | $5,988.00 | $6,061.97 |
$-15.25 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 11:55am ET | $242.13 | 25 | $6,053.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.50 | 25 | $6,037.50 | $6,046.35 |
$-15.63 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.27 | 24 | $5,838.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.26 | 24 | $5,550.14 | $5,758.01 |
$-288.34 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $225.51 | 25 | $5,637.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $231.13 | 25 | $5,778.37 | $5,898.51 |
+$140.50 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $241.30 | 24 | $5,791.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 24 | $6,037.20 | $6,144.51 |
+$246.00 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:10am ET | $250.21 | 24 | $6,004.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $255.65 | 24 | $6,135.72 | $6,275.31 |
+$130.80 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $238.41 | 26 | $6,198.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 2:10pm ET | $243.53 | 26 | $6,331.78 | $6,408.43 |
+$133.12 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:45pm ET | $240.76 | 26 | $6,259.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $246.27 | 26 | $6,403.02 | $6,551.56 |
+$143.13 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:55pm ET | $250.42 | 26 | $6,510.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $255.60 | 26 | $6,645.60 | $6,686.24 |
+$134.68 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,686.24
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,313.76
Total Return:
-33.14%