ARM Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 47 trades in period
+26.38%
Year to Date Return
$15,683.77
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$12,409.59
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
15.2/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
36.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 36.7
30-Day Momentum
68
+17.4%
30d Return
79%
Win Rate
14
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.8
Conf: 0.98×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,552
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,409.59
Current Value
$15,683.77
Period P&L
$3,274.19
Max Drawdown
-36.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
29 /
18
Best Trade
+7.87%
Worst Trade
-7.31%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,285,687.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,274.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,274.19
Gross Return
+26.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+26.38%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $12,409.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:10am ET | $110.88 | 113 | $12,529.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.49 | 113 | $12,937.37 | $12,985.86 |
+$407.93 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $120.71 | 107 | $12,915.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:05pm ET | $116.96 | 107 | $12,514.72 | $12,584.61 |
$-401.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $115.41 | 109 | $12,579.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $111.55 | 109 | $12,158.95 | $12,163.87 |
$-420.74 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $111.17 | 109 | $12,117.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $107.69 | 109 | $11,738.74 | $11,785.09 |
$-378.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $102.33 | 115 | $11,767.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $104.75 | 115 | $12,046.25 | $12,063.74 |
+$278.66 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $105.14 | 114 | $11,985.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $107.63 | 114 | $12,269.25 | $12,347.03 |
+$283.29 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $109.16 | 113 | $12,335.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.26 | 113 | $12,911.38 | $12,923.33 |
+$576.30 (+4.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $119.93 | 107 | $12,832.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $116.30 | 107 | $12,444.10 | $12,534.92 |
$-388.41 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $114.65 | 109 | $12,496.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $111.20 | 109 | $12,120.91 | $12,159.42 |
$-375.51 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $107.15 | 113 | $12,107.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $106.10 | 113 | $11,989.30 | $12,040.77 |
$-118.65 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $103.56 | 116 | $12,012.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $106.20 | 116 | $12,319.20 | $12,347.01 |
+$306.24 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:40pm ET | $112.44 | 109 | $12,256.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.45 | 109 | $12,692.65 | $12,783.15 |
+$436.14 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $121.29 | 105 | $12,735.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $123.76 | 105 | $12,994.80 | $13,042.50 |
+$259.35 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $129.08 | 101 | $13,037.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $125.17 | 101 | $12,642.17 | $12,647.59 |
$-394.91 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $124.48 | 101 | $12,572.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.42 | 101 | $12,970.42 | $13,045.53 |
+$397.94 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:10am ET | $124.64 | 104 | $12,962.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $127.50 | 104 | $13,260.00 | $13,342.97 |
+$297.44 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $123.77 | 107 | $13,243.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $127.49 | 107 | $13,640.90 | $13,740.48 |
+$397.51 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 10:20am ET | $130.80 | 105 | $13,734.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:00pm ET | $126.85 | 105 | $13,319.25 | $13,325.73 |
$-414.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:20pm ET | $127.02 | 104 | $13,210.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $122.83 | 104 | $12,774.32 | $12,889.97 |
$-435.76 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $117.04 | 110 | $12,874.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $120.76 | 110 | $13,283.59 | $13,298.98 |
+$409.01 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $124.69 | 106 | $13,217.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:00am ET | $120.40 | 106 | $12,762.40 | $12,844.24 |
$-454.74 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $117.36 | 109 | $12,792.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $113.61 | 109 | $12,383.49 | $12,434.95 |
$-409.29 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $119.18 | 104 | $12,394.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 12:20pm ET | $121.61 | 104 | $12,647.44 | $12,687.67 |
+$252.72 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:55pm ET | $119.94 | 105 | $12,593.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:15am ET | $116.10 | 105 | $12,189.98 | $12,283.94 |
$-403.73 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $116.74 | 105 | $12,257.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.14 | 105 | $12,509.70 | $12,535.94 |
+$252.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $126.20 | 99 | $12,493.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $129.18 | 99 | $12,788.33 | $12,830.47 |
+$294.53 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 10:25am ET | $127.77 | 100 | $12,777.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.83 | 100 | $13,783.00 | $13,836.47 |
+$1,006.00 (+7.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $136.52 | 101 | $13,788.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 1:40pm ET | $139.68 | 101 | $14,108.18 | $14,156.13 |
+$319.66 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $159.61 | 88 | $14,045.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:40pm ET | $154.63 | 88 | $13,607.44 | $13,717.88 |
$-438.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $142.37 | 96 | $13,667.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $137.87 | 96 | $13,235.76 | $13,286.12 |
$-431.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 2:20pm ET | $148.70 | 89 | $13,234.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $155.98 | 89 | $13,882.22 | $13,933.95 |
+$647.83 (+4.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $148.18 | 94 | $13,929.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $151.18 | 94 | $14,211.39 | $14,215.95 |
+$282.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 12:05pm ET | $147.59 | 96 | $14,168.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $141.91 | 96 | $13,623.84 | $13,671.63 |
$-544.32 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $146.95 | 93 | $13,665.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $149.93 | 93 | $13,943.49 | $13,949.23 |
+$277.60 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 1:55pm ET | $148.40 | 93 | $13,801.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.38 | 93 | $14,171.80 | $14,319.84 |
+$370.61 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.72 | 96 | $14,181.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $150.90 | 96 | $14,486.73 | $14,625.45 |
+$305.61 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $158.18 | 92 | $14,552.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $161.41 | 92 | $14,849.74 | $14,922.63 |
+$297.18 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $158.04 | 94 | $14,855.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $162.93 | 94 | $15,315.42 | $15,382.29 |
+$459.66 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $164.37 | 93 | $15,286.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $167.86 | 93 | $15,610.98 | $15,706.86 |
+$324.57 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $173.88 | 90 | $15,649.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.75 | 90 | $16,177.50 | $16,235.16 |
+$528.30 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $206.97 | 78 | $16,143.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.94 | 78 | $17,311.44 | $17,402.94 |
+$1,167.78 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $217.30 | 80 | $17,384.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.41 | 80 | $16,112.94 | $16,131.88 |
$-1,271.06 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $196.07 | 82 | $16,077.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $200.95 | 82 | $16,477.89 | $16,532.02 |
+$400.14 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:25am ET | $209.48 | 78 | $16,339.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 12:05pm ET | $214.01 | 78 | $16,692.39 | $16,885.13 |
+$353.11 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:30pm ET | $212.68 | 79 | $16,801.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $205.34 | 79 | $16,221.86 | $16,305.26 |
$-579.87 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $206.19 | 79 | $16,289.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $211.12 | 79 | $16,678.09 | $16,694.22 |
+$388.96 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 2:45pm ET | $237.08 | 70 | $16,595.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.65 | 70 | $15,585.15 | $15,683.77 |
$-1,010.45 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,683.77
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,683.77
Total Return:
+56.84%