Compendium › Rebel Contraire › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 27 trades in period

+12.25%
Year to Date Return
$19,208.53
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$17,112.37
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 12:58:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

57
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
23.4/35
Total Return
16.4/25
Win Rate
8.6/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 57.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 56.8

30-Day Momentum

60
+11.2%
30d Return
71%
Win Rate
7
Trades
2.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 76.7 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,408
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$17,112.37
Current Value
$19,208.53
Period P&L
$2,096.15
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
16 / 11
Best Trade
+5.20%
Worst Trade
-6.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.44%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$927,486.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,096.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,096.15
Gross Return
+12.25%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $17,112.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 12:05pm ET $373.56 46 $17,183.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $376.79 46 $17,332.22 $17,424.61 +$148.28
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 2:25pm ET $383.87 45 $17,274.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $359.55 45 $16,179.75 $16,330.21 $-1,094.40
(-6.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $358.42 45 $16,128.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 11:35am ET $365.77 45 $16,459.65 $16,660.96 +$330.75
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:30pm ET $356.12 46 $16,381.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET $365.74 46 $16,824.04 $17,103.48 +$442.52
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:10am ET $361.45 47 $16,988.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET $359.95 47 $16,917.42 $17,032.74 $-70.73
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $357.61 47 $16,807.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET $346.78 47 $16,298.43 $16,523.73 $-509.01
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $352.17 46 $16,199.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 11:30am ET $359.82 46 $16,551.72 $16,875.63 +$351.90
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:45pm ET $361.05 46 $16,608.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET $368.43 46 $16,947.78 $17,214.88 +$339.25
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:15pm ET $344.39 49 $16,875.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $343.00 49 $16,807.00 $17,146.86 $-68.02
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 9:55am ET $317.67 53 $16,836.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $324.08 53 $17,176.24 $17,486.32 +$339.46
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET $333.85 52 $17,360.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $320.53 52 $16,667.56 $16,793.68 $-692.64
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:55am ET $303.89 55 $16,713.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 1:30pm ET $310.19 55 $17,060.45 $17,140.45 +$346.77
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 2:15pm ET $308.00 55 $16,940.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $297.35 55 $16,354.25 $16,554.70 $-585.75
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 1:35pm ET $297.46 55 $16,360.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $304.55 55 $16,750.25 $16,944.37 +$389.67
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET $303.20 55 $16,676.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $301.96 55 $16,608.07 $16,876.44 $-67.93
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:20am ET $302.26 55 $16,624.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $292.26 55 $16,074.03 $16,326.16 $-550.28
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET $293.76 55 $16,156.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $302.79 55 $16,653.35 $16,822.99 +$496.83
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $299.23 56 $16,757.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $305.29 56 $17,096.24 $17,162.07 +$339.08
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET $299.70 57 $17,082.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET $299.19 57 $17,053.83 $17,133.00 $-29.07
(-0.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 10:20am ET $301.00 56 $16,856.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 10:20am ET $303.38 56 $16,989.28 $17,266.28 +$133.28
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET $303.87 56 $17,016.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $319.66 56 $17,900.96 $18,150.52 +$884.24
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $314.05 57 $17,900.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 2:05pm ET $320.61 57 $18,275.05 $18,524.73 +$374.21
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:15pm ET $327.49 56 $18,339.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET $334.93 56 $18,756.36 $18,941.65 +$416.92
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:05am ET $332.04 57 $18,926.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:35am ET $322.02 57 $18,355.14 $18,370.51 $-571.14
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $314.87 58 $18,262.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $322.91 58 $18,728.78 $18,836.83 +$466.32
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET $314.29 59 $18,543.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 11:30am ET $320.86 59 $18,930.74 $19,224.46 +$387.63
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
27 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 11:55am ET $321.64 59 $18,976.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 11:55am ET $321.37 59 $18,960.83 $19,208.53 $-15.93
(-0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $19,208.53
Net Profit/Loss: +$9,208.53
Total Return: +92.09%
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