BTCUSD Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 52 trades in period
-28.40%
Year to Date Return
$644.20
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$897.10
Period Start
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Polygon.io (historical) + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Polygon + Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,000
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-02-15
Trading Days
46 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$897.10
Current Value
$644.20
Period P&L
$-254.77
Max Drawdown
-95.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
29 /
23
Best Trade
+3.02%
Worst Trade
-3.67%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
18.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$77,910.81
Estimated Fees
$194.78
Gross P&L
$-254.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$-449.55
Gross Return
-28.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-50.11%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 46 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $897.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 12:55am ET | $88,349.30 | 0 | $905.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $90,729.00 | 0 | $929.73 | $925.14 |
+$19.80 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $90,391.40 | 0 | $925.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 4, 2026 7:55pm ET | $92,291.00 | 0 | $944.59 | $939.91 |
+$14.77 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 4, 2026 8:55pm ET | $92,839.00 | 0 | $939.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:50am ET | $89,979.88 | 0 | $910.97 | $906.34 |
$-33.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:55am ET | $89,778.22 | 0 | $906.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $91,580.00 | 0 | $924.53 | $919.95 |
+$13.61 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $91,298.79 | 0 | $919.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $93,373.00 | 0 | $940.85 | $936.20 |
+$16.25 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $93,211.50 | 0 | $936.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 5:10pm ET | $95,499.00 | 0 | $959.18 | $954.44 |
+$18.24 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 6:15pm ET | $95,572.40 | 0 | $954.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:05pm ET | $97,561.00 | 0 | $974.30 | $969.47 |
+$15.04 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:25pm ET | $97,490.00 | 0 | $969.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $94,526.50 | 0 | $940.00 | $935.23 |
$-34.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $94,764.80 | 0 | $935.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:00am ET | $91,639.00 | 0 | $904.38 | $899.78 |
$-35.45 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:05am ET | $91,578.00 | 0 | $899.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 5:30pm ET | $88,221.00 | 0 | $866.80 | $862.38 |
$-37.40 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 7:15pm ET | $88,286.80 | 0 | $862.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $90,159.00 | 0 | $880.67 | $876.31 |
+$13.93 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $89,734.90 | 0 | $876.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $86,960.62 | 0 | $849.22 | $844.91 |
$-31.41 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 25, 2026 2:20pm ET | $86,634.00 | 0 | $844.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $88,636.72 | 0 | $864.44 | $860.17 |
+$15.26 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $88,423.85 | 0 | $860.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 8:40am ET | $90,288.07 | 0 | $878.30 | $873.95 |
+$13.79 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 8:55am ET | $90,149.36 | 0 | $873.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $87,293.94 | 0 | $846.27 | $841.97 |
$-31.98 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $86,371.98 | 0 | $841.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:25pm ET | $83,721.16 | 0 | $816.13 | $811.99 |
$-29.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $83,719.03 | 0 | $811.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $80,964.50 | 0 | $785.27 | $781.28 |
$-30.71 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $80,868.76 | 0 | $781.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 31, 2026 1:15pm ET | $78,217.00 | 0 | $755.66 | $751.82 |
$-29.46 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 31, 2026 1:20pm ET | $78,162.53 | 0 | $751.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 1, 2026 10:10pm ET | $75,812.00 | 0 | $729.21 | $725.50 |
$-26.31 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 1, 2026 10:20pm ET | $75,289.30 | 0 | $725.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:10am ET | $76,963.00 | 0 | $741.63 | $737.96 |
+$12.46 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:30am ET | $76,676.60 | 0 | $737.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $78,295.98 | 0 | $753.55 | $749.82 |
+$11.86 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $78,713.01 | 0 | $749.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:00pm ET | $76,332.36 | 0 | $727.14 | $723.45 |
$-26.37 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $76,193.00 | 0 | $723.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:40pm ET | $73,635.99 | 0 | $699.17 | $695.61 |
$-27.84 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:45pm ET | $73,208.30 | 0 | $695.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $74,913.99 | 0 | $711.82 | $708.30 |
+$12.69 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:45pm ET | $74,391.02 | 0 | $708.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $76,171.08 | 0 | $725.25 | $721.67 |
+$13.36 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 7:10pm ET | $75,366.77 | 0 | $721.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:05pm ET | $76,881.00 | 0 | $736.17 | $732.52 |
+$10.85 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:20pm ET | $76,493.50 | 0 | $732.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $74,042.95 | 0 | $709.06 | $705.45 |
$-27.07 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:35am ET | $74,012.01 | 0 | $705.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:45pm ET | $71,746.89 | 0 | $683.86 | $680.39 |
$-25.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25am ET | $70,286.01 | 0 | $680.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 4:10am ET | $71,822.30 | 0 | $695.26 | $691.82 |
+$11.43 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 4:40am ET | $71,344.07 | 0 | $691.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:20am ET | $69,076.00 | 0 | $669.83 | $666.42 |
$-25.40 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:40am ET | $69,211.02 | 0 | $666.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $70,599.53 | 0 | $679.79 | $676.43 |
+$10.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $69,820.41 | 0 | $676.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $67,456.00 | 0 | $653.52 | $650.20 |
$-26.23 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $66,820.72 | 0 | $650.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $68,393.42 | 0 | $665.50 | $662.21 |
+$12.01 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $67,257.87 | 0 | $662.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:50pm ET | $65,164.00 | 0 | $641.59 | $638.33 |
$-23.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $65,119.05 | 0 | $638.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:45pm ET | $63,136.26 | 0 | $618.90 | $615.76 |
$-22.58 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $62,412.00 | 0 | $615.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 4:00pm ET | $64,250.03 | 0 | $633.89 | $630.76 |
+$15.01 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 4:15pm ET | $62,836.00 | 0 | $630.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 5:50pm ET | $64,332.20 | 0 | $645.78 | $642.59 |
+$11.83 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 6:15pm ET | $64,244.00 | 0 | $642.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:00pm ET | $62,181.96 | 0 | $621.97 | $618.81 |
$-23.79 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET | $61,345.00 | 0 | $618.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $63,112.00 | 0 | $636.63 | $633.49 |
+$14.69 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:10pm ET | $64,771.29 | 0 | $633.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $66,725.76 | 0 | $652.61 | $649.39 |
+$15.90 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:15am ET | $65,699.00 | 0 | $649.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:15am ET | $67,144.00 | 0 | $663.68 | $660.39 |
+$11.00 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:00am ET | $66,956.64 | 0 | $660.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $68,313.00 | 0 | $673.77 | $670.43 |
+$10.04 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
48m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $70,442.17 | 0 | $670.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET | $67,902.55 | 0 | $646.26 | $642.97 |
$-27.46 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.1h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:15am ET | $67,760.46 | 0 | $642.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 7:15am ET | $69,795.99 | 0 | $662.29 | $659.02 |
+$16.05 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 9:10am ET | $68,947.97 | 0 | $659.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 3:30am ET | $70,653.14 | 0 | $675.32 | $671.99 |
+$12.96 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 4:40am ET | $70,069.51 | 0 | $671.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 8, 2026 8:55am ET | $71,471.81 | 0 | $685.44 | $682.04 |
+$10.05 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $71,149.66 | 0 | $682.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 5:20am ET | $68,991.61 | 0 | $661.35 | $658.00 |
$-24.05 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 5:25am ET | $68,968.91 | 0 | $658.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $70,484.47 | 0 | $672.46 | $669.13 |
+$11.13 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.2h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $70,576.51 | 0 | $669.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 8:00am ET | $68,434.17 | 0 | $648.82 | $645.52 |
$-23.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $69,064.95 | 0 | $645.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $69,818.48 | 0 | $652.57 | $649.32 |
+$3.80 (+1.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET | $69,560.70 | 0 | $649.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:35pm ET | $67,433.68 | 0 | $629.47 | $629.47 |
$-23.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.4h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $66,851.01 | 0 | $629.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:10am ET | $68,415.63 | 0 | $644.20 | $644.20 |
+$11.55 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$644.20
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,355.80
Total Return:
-93.56%