COIN Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
-9.30%
Year to Date Return
$3,796.24
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$4,185.47
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
9.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 9.3
30-Day Momentum
16
-0.7%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.9
Conf: 0.93×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,476
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$4,185.47
Current Value
$3,796.24
Period P&L
$-389.23
Max Drawdown
-67.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
26 /
22
Best Trade
+6.96%
Worst Trade
-5.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
22.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$361,282.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-389.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$-389.23
Gross Return
-9.30%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.30%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $4,185.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $237.00 | 17 | $4,029.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.95 | 17 | $4,232.15 | $4,388.65 |
+$203.15 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.60 | 17 | $4,328.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:55pm ET | $246.16 | 17 | $4,184.65 | $4,245.10 |
$-143.55 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:55pm ET | $245.75 | 17 | $4,177.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $237.67 | 17 | $4,040.39 | $4,107.74 |
$-137.36 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $245.45 | 16 | $3,927.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:55am ET | $250.77 | 16 | $4,012.24 | $4,192.78 |
+$85.04 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $255.03 | 16 | $4,080.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $246.84 | 16 | $3,949.44 | $4,061.74 |
$-131.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $237.08 | 17 | $4,030.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $242.08 | 17 | $4,115.35 | $4,146.75 |
+$85.01 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $228.21 | 18 | $4,107.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $233.46 | 18 | $4,202.20 | $4,241.17 |
+$94.42 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
36m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $229.26 | 18 | $4,126.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $218.16 | 18 | $3,926.88 | $4,041.37 |
$-199.80 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $213.54 | 18 | $3,843.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.46 | 18 | $3,680.32 | $3,878.05 |
$-163.31 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $196.55 | 19 | $3,734.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.19 | 19 | $3,594.61 | $3,738.30 |
$-139.76 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.02 | 20 | $3,720.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $180.36 | 20 | $3,607.20 | $3,625.09 |
$-113.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $168.36 | 21 | $3,535.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.93 | 21 | $3,421.63 | $3,511.17 |
$-113.93 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $161.00 | 21 | $3,381.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:45pm ET | $164.35 | 21 | $3,451.25 | $3,581.41 |
+$70.25 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $163.38 | 21 | $3,430.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $167.14 | 21 | $3,509.94 | $3,660.37 |
+$78.96 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $162.82 | 22 | $3,582.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $167.20 | 22 | $3,678.40 | $3,756.73 |
+$96.36 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $170.54 | 22 | $3,751.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $165.24 | 22 | $3,635.28 | $3,640.02 |
$-116.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:30pm ET | $163.13 | 22 | $3,588.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 3:55pm ET | $166.50 | 22 | $3,663.00 | $3,714.27 |
+$74.25 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.27 | 22 | $3,657.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $160.86 | 22 | $3,538.94 | $3,595.27 |
$-119.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 2:15pm ET | $160.59 | 22 | $3,532.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $171.76 | 22 | $3,778.72 | $3,841.01 |
+$245.74 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $179.69 | 21 | $3,773.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $173.63 | 21 | $3,646.23 | $3,713.75 |
$-127.26 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $182.96 | 20 | $3,659.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.18 | 20 | $3,543.60 | $3,598.13 |
$-115.62 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $199.07 | 18 | $3,583.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $203.18 | 18 | $3,657.15 | $3,671.93 |
+$73.80 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $207.73 | 17 | $3,531.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.26 | 17 | $3,404.50 | $3,545.03 |
$-126.90 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:25pm ET | $195.50 | 18 | $3,519.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $200.60 | 18 | $3,610.80 | $3,636.78 |
+$91.76 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET | $196.53 | 18 | $3,537.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.53 | 18 | $3,609.54 | $3,708.78 |
+$72.00 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $195.92 | 18 | $3,526.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $201.00 | 18 | $3,618.00 | $3,800.24 |
+$91.46 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $203.20 | 18 | $3,657.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $208.41 | 18 | $3,751.47 | $3,894.11 |
+$93.87 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $203.80 | 19 | $3,872.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $208.21 | 19 | $3,955.94 | $3,977.76 |
+$83.65 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 2:45pm ET | $199.96 | 19 | $3,799.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET | $204.25 | 19 | $3,880.75 | $4,059.17 |
+$81.42 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $202.20 | 20 | $4,044.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $196.02 | 20 | $3,920.38 | $3,935.55 |
$-123.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:45am ET | $187.52 | 20 | $3,750.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:30pm ET | $180.88 | 20 | $3,617.60 | $3,802.75 |
$-132.80 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $173.54 | 21 | $3,644.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.16 | 21 | $3,489.36 | $3,647.67 |
$-155.08 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $161.96 | 22 | $3,563.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $167.38 | 22 | $3,682.47 | $3,767.02 |
+$119.35 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $173.68 | 21 | $3,647.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:05pm ET | $177.44 | 21 | $3,726.24 | $3,846.08 |
+$79.06 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 1:05pm ET | $171.24 | 22 | $3,767.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.70 | 22 | $3,865.29 | $3,944.09 |
+$98.01 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $170.79 | 23 | $3,928.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:45pm ET | $174.43 | 23 | $4,012.00 | $4,028.04 |
+$83.95 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $176.42 | 22 | $3,881.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $169.43 | 22 | $3,727.57 | $3,874.37 |
$-153.67 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $163.36 | 23 | $3,757.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $166.87 | 23 | $3,837.90 | $3,954.99 |
+$80.62 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $172.93 | 22 | $3,804.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.26 | 22 | $3,965.72 | $4,116.25 |
+$161.26 (+4.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:30am ET | $190.91 | 21 | $4,009.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $194.81 | 21 | $4,091.01 | $4,198.15 |
+$81.90 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $211.21 | 19 | $4,012.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.56 | 19 | $3,810.66 | $3,995.82 |
$-202.33 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $206.15 | 19 | $3,916.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $199.67 | 19 | $3,793.73 | $3,872.60 |
$-123.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $207.13 | 18 | $3,728.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $199.49 | 18 | $3,590.82 | $3,735.08 |
$-137.52 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:00am ET | $199.00 | 18 | $3,582.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $203.05 | 18 | $3,654.99 | $3,808.07 |
+$72.99 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $193.11 | 19 | $3,669.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.15 | 19 | $3,555.77 | $3,694.74 |
$-113.33 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $183.89 | 20 | $3,677.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $188.40 | 20 | $3,768.00 | $3,784.94 |
+$90.20 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:25am ET | $192.41 | 19 | $3,655.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.40 | 19 | $3,788.69 | $3,917.84 |
+$132.90 (+3.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $198.38 | 19 | $3,769.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 12:20pm ET | $191.98 | 19 | $3,647.62 | $3,796.24 |
$-121.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$3,796.24
Net Profit/Loss:
$-6,203.76
Total Return:
-62.04%