COP Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 44 trades in period
+18.07%
Year to Date Return
$11,430.44
Current Value
66%
Win Rate
$9,681.45
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
58.1 neutral
20d Trend
+7.6%
5d Trend
-0.6%
EMA20 Dist
+2.4%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
80%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.5/35
Total Return
9.8/25
Win Rate
6.5/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
25.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 25.2
30-Day Momentum
3
-6.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,832
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
120 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,681.45
Current Value
$11,430.44
Period P&L
$1,749.01
Max Drawdown
-20.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
44
Winners / Losers
29 /
15
Best Trade
+3.13%
Worst Trade
-5.76%
Avg Trade Return
+0.44%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$953,610.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,749.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,749.01
Gross Return
+18.07%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.07%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 120 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 44 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,681.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 10:40am ET | $93.49 | 102 | $9,535.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $95.48 | 102 | $9,738.45 | $9,771.70 |
+$202.47 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $99.50 | 98 | $9,751.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $95.56 | 98 | $9,364.88 | $9,385.58 |
$-386.12 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:15am ET | $97.11 | 96 | $9,322.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:55pm ET | $99.13 | 96 | $9,516.48 | $9,579.50 |
+$193.92 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:55pm ET | $99.06 | 96 | $9,509.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $95.98 | 96 | $9,214.08 | $9,283.82 |
$-295.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $97.26 | 95 | $9,239.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $99.73 | 95 | $9,474.35 | $9,518.47 |
+$234.65 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:30am ET | $98.88 | 96 | $9,492.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $97.62 | 96 | $9,371.58 | $9,398.05 |
$-120.42 (-1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:55am ET | $97.33 | 96 | $9,343.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $97.90 | 96 | $9,397.92 | $9,452.29 |
+$54.24 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $99.04 | 95 | $9,408.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $101.07 | 95 | $9,601.65 | $9,645.62 |
+$193.33 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $104.67 | 92 | $9,629.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $101.45 | 92 | $9,333.40 | $9,349.38 |
$-296.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:40am ET | $104.43 | 89 | $9,294.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $106.82 | 89 | $9,507.42 | $9,562.09 |
+$212.71 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $105.42 | 90 | $9,487.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $108.07 | 90 | $9,725.85 | $9,800.59 |
+$238.50 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:30pm ET | $108.69 | 90 | $9,782.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $107.70 | 90 | $9,693.00 | $9,711.49 |
$-89.10 (-0.9%) |
📅 Sim Ended
22h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $110.76 | 87 | $9,636.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $113.38 | 87 | $9,864.06 | $9,938.99 |
+$227.50 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $109.86 | 90 | $9,886.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $109.33 | 90 | $9,840.15 | $9,892.19 |
$-46.80 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $110.78 | 89 | $9,859.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $113.28 | 89 | $10,081.92 | $10,114.69 |
+$222.50 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $116.12 | 87 | $10,102.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.76 | 87 | $10,419.12 | $10,431.37 |
+$316.68 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $115.50 | 90 | $10,395.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $118.41 | 90 | $10,656.90 | $10,693.27 |
+$261.90 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $117.70 | 90 | $10,593.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $113.99 | 90 | $10,259.10 | $10,359.37 |
$-333.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:55pm ET | $116.25 | 89 | $10,346.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $118.88 | 89 | $10,579.88 | $10,593.00 |
+$233.63 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 2:00pm ET | $121.21 | 87 | $10,545.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:45am ET | $123.65 | 87 | $10,757.55 | $10,805.28 |
+$212.28 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 12:15pm ET | $123.78 | 87 | $10,768.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $126.32 | 87 | $10,990.27 | $11,026.69 |
+$221.41 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $126.10 | 87 | $10,970.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.99 | 87 | $11,222.13 | $11,278.56 |
+$251.87 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $129.32 | 87 | $11,250.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $132.18 | 87 | $11,499.66 | $11,527.38 |
+$248.82 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:00pm ET | $133.51 | 86 | $11,482.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:20pm ET | $128.86 | 86 | $11,081.96 | $11,127.05 |
$-400.33 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:55am ET | $132.69 | 83 | $11,013.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $132.79 | 83 | $11,021.57 | $11,135.35 |
+$8.30 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $123.60 | 90 | $11,124.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $127.43 | 90 | $11,468.70 | $11,480.05 |
+$344.70 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $123.57 | 92 | $11,368.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:15am ET | $119.73 | 92 | $11,015.16 | $11,126.77 |
$-353.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:45am ET | $118.98 | 93 | $11,065.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $121.37 | 93 | $11,287.41 | $11,348.83 |
+$222.06 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $113.71 | 99 | $11,257.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $116.11 | 99 | $11,494.89 | $11,586.43 |
+$237.60 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 2:50pm ET | $117.26 | 98 | $11,491.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:50pm ET | $119.72 | 98 | $11,732.56 | $11,827.51 |
+$241.08 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 3:15pm ET | $122.83 | 96 | $11,791.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $125.46 | 96 | $12,044.16 | $12,079.93 |
+$252.42 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $120.68 | 100 | $12,068.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.16 | 100 | $12,416.25 | $12,428.18 |
+$348.25 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $125.22 | 99 | $12,396.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $127.82 | 99 | $12,654.18 | $12,685.57 |
+$257.39 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $124.63 | 101 | $12,587.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $117.45 | 101 | $11,862.45 | $11,960.39 |
$-725.18 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $115.14 | 103 | $11,859.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $116.60 | 103 | $12,009.80 | $12,110.77 |
+$150.38 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $116.49 | 103 | $11,998.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $118.84 | 103 | $12,240.52 | $12,352.82 |
+$242.05 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 1:20pm ET | $121.59 | 101 | $12,280.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 11:10am ET | $124.08 | 101 | $12,532.58 | $12,604.82 |
+$252.00 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:35am ET | $124.30 | 101 | $12,554.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 1:50pm ET | $120.39 | 101 | $12,159.89 | $12,210.41 |
$-394.41 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:55pm ET | $120.49 | 101 | $12,169.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $116.83 | 101 | $11,799.83 | $11,840.75 |
$-369.66 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $116.03 | 102 | $11,835.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $115.62 | 102 | $11,793.24 | $11,798.93 |
$-41.82 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $117.23 | 100 | $11,723.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.36 | 100 | $11,836.00 | $11,911.93 |
+$113.00 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $116.93 | 101 | $11,809.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $119.50 | 101 | $12,069.50 | $12,171.50 |
+$259.57 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $119.10 | 102 | $12,148.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $115.52 | 102 | $11,783.04 | $11,806.34 |
$-365.16 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 10:15am ET | $111.41 | 105 | $11,698.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 10:15am ET | $107.83 | 105 | $11,322.15 | $11,430.44 |
$-375.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,430.44
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,430.44
Total Return:
+14.30%