DKNG Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 43 trades in period
-6.63%
Year to Date Return
$8,590.14
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$9,199.58
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.5 oversold
20d Trend
-25.9%
5d Trend
-7.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
5.3%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
12.4/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 12.2
30-Day Momentum
59
+10.8%
30d Return
73%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 65.9
Conf: 0.90×
Accelerating (+47 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,970
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,199.58
Current Value
$8,590.14
Period P&L
$-609.48
Max Drawdown
-46.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
43
Winners / Losers
24 /
19
Best Trade
+4.87%
Worst Trade
-4.45%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$707,612.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-609.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-609.48
Gross Return
-6.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.63%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 DKNG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 43 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $9,199.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.68 | 266 | $9,224.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $35.44 | 266 | $9,425.71 | $9,450.55 |
+$200.83 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:00pm ET | $36.44 | 259 | $9,437.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:20pm ET | $35.31 | 259 | $9,144.00 | $9,157.23 |
$-293.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $34.69 | 264 | $9,156.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $35.54 | 264 | $9,382.56 | $9,382.95 |
+$225.72 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $35.46 | 264 | $9,360.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $34.31 | 264 | $9,057.84 | $9,080.67 |
$-302.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:35pm ET | $34.39 | 264 | $9,077.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $35.33 | 264 | $9,327.12 | $9,330.15 |
+$249.48 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $33.30 | 280 | $9,323.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.82 | 280 | $8,909.43 | $8,915.61 |
$-414.54 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.11 | 277 | $8,895.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $31.12 | 277 | $8,620.24 | $8,640.08 |
$-275.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $30.40 | 284 | $8,633.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:20am ET | $30.07 | 284 | $8,538.46 | $8,544.94 |
$-95.14 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:30pm ET | $30.24 | 282 | $8,527.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.00 | 282 | $8,178.00 | $8,195.26 |
$-349.68 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.78 | 295 | $8,195.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $26.90 | 295 | $7,935.50 | $7,935.66 |
$-259.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $27.64 | 287 | $7,932.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 1:15pm ET | $26.81 | 287 | $7,694.47 | $7,697.45 |
$-238.21 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:25pm ET | $25.36 | 303 | $7,685.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.60 | 303 | $8,059.80 | $8,071.65 |
+$374.21 (+4.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $27.36 | 295 | $8,071.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $27.51 | 295 | $8,116.92 | $8,117.38 |
+$45.72 (+0.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET | $21.29 | 381 | $8,111.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $21.74 | 381 | $8,282.94 | $8,288.83 |
+$171.45 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
50m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $23.35 | 354 | $8,267.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $22.62 | 354 | $8,007.48 | $8,028.64 |
$-260.19 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:30am ET | $21.95 | 365 | $8,012.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $21.23 | 365 | $7,748.95 | $7,765.29 |
$-263.35 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 12:15pm ET | $21.77 | 356 | $7,750.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $22.23 | 356 | $7,912.10 | $7,927.27 |
+$161.98 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 1:55pm ET | $22.70 | 349 | $7,924.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.23 | 349 | $8,105.53 | $8,108.75 |
+$181.48 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $22.46 | 361 | $8,108.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $22.91 | 361 | $8,270.51 | $8,271.20 |
+$162.45 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $23.64 | 349 | $8,250.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:10am ET | $24.14 | 349 | $8,424.86 | $8,445.70 |
+$174.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:40pm ET | $25.33 | 333 | $8,433.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.40 | 333 | $8,125.63 | $8,138.11 |
$-307.59 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $24.53 | 331 | $8,119.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 12:25pm ET | $25.03 | 331 | $8,284.93 | $8,303.61 |
+$165.50 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $25.22 | 329 | $8,297.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $25.81 | 329 | $8,489.85 | $8,496.07 |
+$192.47 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $25.95 | 327 | $8,487.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.12 | 327 | $8,214.24 | $8,223.03 |
$-273.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $24.98 | 329 | $8,218.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $25.50 | 329 | $8,389.50 | $8,394.11 |
+$171.08 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $24.99 | 335 | $8,369.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $24.05 | 335 | $8,055.08 | $8,079.21 |
$-314.90 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $24.49 | 329 | $8,056.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.45 | 329 | $7,715.05 | $7,738.04 |
$-341.17 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $22.87 | 338 | $7,730.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $22.10 | 338 | $7,469.80 | $7,477.78 |
$-260.26 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $21.45 | 348 | $7,466.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:10am ET | $20.68 | 348 | $7,196.64 | $7,208.08 |
$-269.70 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $20.66 | 348 | $7,189.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $21.09 | 348 | $7,341.06 | $7,359.46 |
+$151.38 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $22.10 | 333 | $7,359.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $22.80 | 333 | $7,592.40 | $7,592.56 |
+$233.10 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:50am ET | $22.75 | 333 | $7,574.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.72 | 333 | $7,897.10 | $7,915.57 |
+$323.01 (+4.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $23.01 | 343 | $7,894.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $22.32 | 343 | $7,655.42 | $7,676.84 |
$-238.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $21.73 | 353 | $7,670.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $22.17 | 353 | $7,824.25 | $7,830.40 |
+$153.56 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $23.26 | 336 | $7,815.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $23.73 | 336 | $7,971.60 | $7,986.88 |
+$156.48 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $23.57 | 338 | $7,966.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.11 | 338 | $8,149.18 | $8,169.40 |
+$182.52 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $22.57 | 362 | $8,168.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $23.13 | 362 | $8,373.06 | $8,373.93 |
+$204.53 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
25m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $23.18 | 361 | $8,367.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $22.40 | 361 | $8,085.50 | $8,091.45 |
$-282.48 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $22.29 | 363 | $8,091.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $22.86 | 363 | $8,298.18 | $8,298.36 |
+$206.91 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $23.81 | 348 | $8,285.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.05 | 348 | $8,019.66 | $8,032.14 |
$-266.22 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $22.98 | 349 | $8,018.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.51 | 349 | $8,204.99 | $8,218.85 |
+$186.71 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $23.65 | 347 | $8,206.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.22 | 347 | $8,404.34 | $8,416.64 |
+$197.79 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:55am ET | $24.36 | 345 | $8,403.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $24.86 | 345 | $8,576.70 | $8,590.14 |
+$173.50 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,590.14
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,409.86
Total Return:
-14.10%