Compendium › Rebel Contraire › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

-9.66%
Year to Date Return
$9,071.54
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$10,041.79
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:22:35

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 11.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.6

30-Day Momentum

5
-5.9%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 6.8 Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,383
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,041.79
Current Value
$9,071.54
Period P&L
$-970.22
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
15 / 13
Best Trade
+2.64%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
-0.39%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$542,519.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-970.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$-970.22
Gross Return
-9.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.66%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $10,041.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 11:25am ET $106.79 95 $10,145.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $108.11 95 $10,269.98 $10,333.89 +$124.92
(+1.2%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:55am ET $108.62 95 $10,318.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:55am ET $111.38 95 $10,581.10 $10,596.09 +$262.20
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 11:20am ET $111.45 95 $10,587.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET $107.70 95 $10,231.50 $10,239.84 $-356.25
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:05am ET $108.11 94 $10,161.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 2:10pm ET $110.34 94 $10,371.96 $10,449.93 +$210.09
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $111.15 94 $10,448.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $107.25 94 $10,081.50 $10,083.33 $-366.60
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:45am ET $111.15 90 $10,003.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET $107.64 90 $9,687.60 $9,767.43 $-315.90
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:25am ET $107.31 91 $9,765.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $109.60 91 $9,973.60 $9,975.82 +$208.39
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 2:35pm ET $109.89 90 $9,890.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:30am ET $112.14 90 $10,092.60 $10,178.32 +$202.50
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET $116.20 87 $10,109.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $118.82 87 $10,337.77 $10,406.69 +$228.38
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET $121.33 85 $10,313.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:25am ET $117.63 85 $9,998.55 $10,092.19 $-314.50
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:20pm ET $116.86 86 $10,049.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $116.97 86 $10,059.85 $10,102.08 +$9.89
(+0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
18m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:45am ET $121.46 83 $10,081.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $122.10 83 $10,134.30 $10,155.20 +$53.12
(+0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET $123.58 82 $10,133.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET $119.86 82 $9,828.52 $9,850.16 $-305.04
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 11:45am ET $122.74 80 $9,819.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET $118.96 80 $9,516.80 $9,547.76 $-302.40
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:20am ET $119.52 79 $9,442.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 11:00am ET $115.68 79 $9,139.11 $9,244.80 $-302.96
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 11:15am ET $114.32 80 $9,145.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET $116.63 80 $9,330.40 $9,429.60 +$184.80
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 3:30pm ET $117.40 80 $9,392.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $115.83 80 $9,266.40 $9,303.60 $-126.00
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:05am ET $116.13 80 $9,290.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $115.07 80 $9,205.20 $9,218.40 $-85.20
(-0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $114.86 80 $9,188.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $117.46 80 $9,396.80 $9,426.40 +$208.00
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET $118.98 79 $9,399.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $121.48 79 $9,596.92 $9,623.90 +$197.50
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:25am ET $120.32 79 $9,505.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $120.49 79 $9,518.71 $9,636.94 +$13.04
(+0.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:45am ET $117.14 82 $9,605.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:50am ET $119.58 82 $9,805.97 $9,837.43 +$200.49
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET $123.00 79 $9,717.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 11:25am ET $119.25 79 $9,420.75 $9,541.18 $-296.25
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET $120.18 79 $9,494.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:35am ET $116.36 79 $9,192.83 $9,239.79 $-301.39
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET $116.99 78 $9,125.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 10:35am ET $113.30 78 $8,837.40 $8,951.97 $-287.82
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 10:45am ET $112.65 79 $8,899.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 3:15pm ET $114.94 79 $9,080.26 $9,132.88 +$180.91
(+2.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:40pm ET $111.83 81 $9,058.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $108.22 81 $8,765.82 $8,840.47 $-292.41
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 10:05am ET $110.61 79 $8,737.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $113.53 79 $8,968.87 $9,071.54 +$231.07
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,071.54
Net Profit/Loss: $-928.46
Total Return: -9.28%
Back to Rebel Contraire