MRNA Rebel Contraire's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 48 trades in period
+21.32%
Year to Date Return
$20,946.08
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$17,265.15
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
42
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.0/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
8.3/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality
42.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 41.6
30-Day Momentum
16
-1.9%
30d Return
58%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 16.9
Conf: 0.93×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,555
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$17,265.15
Current Value
$20,946.08
Period P&L
$3,680.96
Max Drawdown
-42.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
30 /
18
Best Trade
+6.24%
Worst Trade
-6.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.45%
Avg Hold Time
22.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,017,308.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,680.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,680.96
Gross Return
+21.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+21.32%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $17,265.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:30am ET | $30.97 | 557 | $17,247.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.15 | 557 | $17,907.55 | $17,925.17 |
+$660.04 (+3.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $35.52 | 504 | $17,902.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $36.50 | 504 | $18,393.48 | $18,416.57 |
+$491.40 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:35pm ET | $33.96 | 542 | $18,406.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $34.64 | 542 | $18,774.88 | $18,785.13 |
+$368.56 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $33.24 | 565 | $18,780.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $35.32 | 565 | $19,952.98 | $19,957.50 |
+$1,172.38 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:15am ET | $41.04 | 486 | $19,946.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:30pm ET | $39.75 | 486 | $19,318.50 | $19,329.06 |
$-628.45 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $40.37 | 478 | $19,296.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $41.76 | 478 | $19,961.28 | $19,993.48 |
+$664.42 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $42.52 | 470 | $19,984.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.38 | 470 | $20,856.25 | $20,865.33 |
+$871.85 (+4.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:50pm ET | $52.85 | 394 | $20,822.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.63 | 394 | $19,554.22 | $19,596.65 |
$-1,268.68 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.34 | 413 | $19,549.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.15 | 413 | $20,711.66 | $20,758.95 |
+$1,162.31 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 10:55am ET | $43.63 | 475 | $20,724.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $44.62 | 475 | $21,194.50 | $21,229.20 |
+$470.25 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
36m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 11:30am ET | $46.37 | 457 | $21,191.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:20pm ET | $47.30 | 457 | $21,616.10 | $21,654.21 |
+$425.01 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 1:50pm ET | $43.47 | 498 | $21,648.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $42.12 | 498 | $20,975.76 | $20,981.91 |
$-672.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $43.54 | 481 | $20,942.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $42.05 | 481 | $20,226.05 | $20,265.22 |
$-716.69 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $43.03 | 470 | $20,224.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:20pm ET | $41.72 | 470 | $19,608.40 | $19,649.52 |
$-615.70 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $40.17 | 489 | $19,640.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $40.99 | 489 | $20,044.11 | $20,052.95 |
+$403.43 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $44.72 | 448 | $20,034.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET | $44.27 | 448 | $19,832.96 | $19,851.35 |
$-201.60 (-1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
30m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $39.32 | 504 | $19,817.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:50pm ET | $40.11 | 504 | $20,215.44 | $20,249.51 |
+$398.16 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:05am ET | $43.13 | 469 | $20,230.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $44.06 | 469 | $20,664.61 | $20,683.81 |
+$434.30 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $46.01 | 449 | $20,656.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $47.14 | 449 | $21,165.86 | $21,193.42 |
+$509.61 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $48.90 | 433 | $21,171.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $49.95 | 433 | $21,628.35 | $21,650.24 |
+$456.82 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $50.45 | 429 | $21,643.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $51.60 | 429 | $22,136.40 | $22,143.59 |
+$493.35 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:30pm ET | $52.53 | 421 | $22,113.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $50.77 | 421 | $21,374.17 | $21,404.73 |
$-738.86 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $51.50 | 415 | $21,372.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:40pm ET | $52.58 | 415 | $21,820.70 | $21,852.93 |
+$448.20 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $53.10 | 411 | $21,822.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.40 | 411 | $21,123.35 | $21,154.23 |
$-698.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $52.74 | 401 | $21,148.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:10am ET | $53.85 | 401 | $21,595.85 | $21,601.34 |
+$447.11 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $56.59 | 381 | $21,559.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $54.83 | 381 | $20,890.23 | $20,931.92 |
$-669.42 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:55pm ET | $51.96 | 402 | $20,887.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.50 | 402 | $21,507.00 | $21,551.00 |
+$619.08 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.01 | 406 | $21,522.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:25am ET | $54.15 | 406 | $21,986.93 | $22,015.87 |
+$464.87 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $56.76 | 387 | $21,968.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.77 | 387 | $21,195.99 | $21,243.81 |
$-772.06 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $53.24 | 399 | $21,240.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $54.35 | 399 | $21,685.65 | $21,688.69 |
+$444.88 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.62 | 420 | $21,680.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $52.74 | 420 | $22,152.90 | $22,161.19 |
+$472.50 (+2.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:05am ET | $52.54 | 421 | $22,119.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $50.85 | 421 | $21,409.95 | $21,451.80 |
$-709.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:25pm ET | $51.67 | 415 | $21,444.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.07 | 415 | $22,023.30 | $22,030.14 |
+$578.34 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $53.69 | 410 | $22,010.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.92 | 410 | $21,287.20 | $21,306.49 |
$-723.65 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $48.24 | 441 | $21,273.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $49.88 | 441 | $21,997.08 | $22,029.73 |
+$723.24 (+3.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $51.43 | 428 | $22,012.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $49.84 | 428 | $21,331.52 | $21,349.21 |
$-680.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $48.75 | 437 | $21,303.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 3:45pm ET | $49.70 | 437 | $21,718.90 | $21,764.36 |
+$415.15 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $51.18 | 425 | $21,751.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $52.39 | 425 | $22,265.75 | $22,278.61 |
+$514.25 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $51.19 | 435 | $22,267.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $52.39 | 435 | $22,789.65 | $22,800.61 |
+$522.00 (+2.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $53.31 | 427 | $22,761.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 2:10pm ET | $54.41 | 427 | $23,233.07 | $23,272.44 |
+$471.83 (+2.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $54.08 | 430 | $23,256.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.50 | 430 | $23,865.00 | $23,880.89 |
+$608.45 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $54.81 | 435 | $23,840.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.46 | 435 | $22,820.10 | $22,860.81 |
$-1,020.08 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $54.95 | 416 | $22,859.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET | $53.23 | 416 | $22,143.68 | $22,145.29 |
$-715.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $50.96 | 434 | $22,116.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $49.35 | 434 | $21,417.90 | $21,446.55 |
$-698.74 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $47.58 | 450 | $21,408.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $45.88 | 450 | $20,646.00 | $20,683.80 |
$-762.75 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 11:05am ET | $47.60 | 434 | $20,656.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $46.12 | 434 | $20,016.08 | $20,043.65 |
$-640.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $44.10 | 454 | $20,021.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $45.18 | 454 | $20,511.81 | $20,534.06 |
+$490.41 (+2.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $47.10 | 436 | $20,533.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $48.04 | 436 | $20,945.44 | $20,946.08 |
+$412.02 (+2.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,946.08
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,946.08
Total Return:
+109.46%