Compendium › Rebel Contraire › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Rebel Contraire's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

-10.41%
Year to Date Return
$12,407.73
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$13,849.82
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:22:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 29.2/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 28.6

30-Day Momentum

59
+10.6%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
8
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 72.7 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,516
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,849.82
Current Value
$12,407.73
Period P&L
$-1,442.06
Max Drawdown
-19.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
15 / 13
Best Trade
+4.09%
Worst Trade
-10.07%
Avg Trade Return
-0.35%
Avg Hold Time
3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$686,294.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,442.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,442.06
Gross Return
-10.41%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.41%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Rebel Contraire had $13,849.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 3:45pm ET $471.33 29 $13,668.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $482.77 29 $14,000.33 $14,181.55 +$331.76
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET $480.91 29 $13,946.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $474.49 29 $13,760.21 $13,995.26 $-186.29
(-1.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET $464.21 30 $13,926.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $451.40 30 $13,541.85 $13,610.96 $-384.30
(-2.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:40am ET $449.35 30 $13,480.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $459.67 30 $13,789.95 $13,920.41 +$309.45
(+2.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 1:40pm ET $472.77 29 $13,710.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 1:55pm ET $482.70 29 $13,998.30 $14,208.52 +$288.12
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 2:30pm ET $480.39 29 $13,931.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $432.00 29 $12,528.00 $12,805.21 $-1,403.31
(-10.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:25am ET $432.88 29 $12,553.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $416.55 29 $12,080.09 $12,331.93 $-473.28
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET $410.52 30 $12,315.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $398.15 30 $11,944.50 $11,960.84 $-371.10
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $399.69 29 $11,591.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET $408.50 29 $11,846.50 $12,216.33 +$255.49
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:20am ET $420.25 29 $12,187.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $420.29 29 $12,188.41 $12,217.49 +$1.16
(+0.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET $396.91 30 $11,907.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $394.75 30 $11,842.50 $12,152.69 $-64.80
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:00am ET $384.59 31 $11,922.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET $392.96 31 $12,181.76 $12,412.16 +$259.47
(+2.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET $401.48 30 $12,044.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $393.65 30 $11,809.65 $12,177.41 $-234.75
(-1.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:55am ET $405.69 30 $12,170.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 12:55pm ET $407.11 30 $12,213.30 $12,220.01 +$42.60
(+0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $404.72 30 $12,141.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $397.66 30 $11,929.80 $12,008.21 $-211.80
(-1.7%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:10am ET $400.92 29 $11,626.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:25am ET $388.69 29 $11,272.01 $11,653.54 $-354.67
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:40am ET $384.34 30 $11,530.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $372.72 30 $11,181.60 $11,304.94 $-348.60
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 12:50pm ET $370.96 30 $11,128.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $359.58 30 $10,787.40 $10,963.39 $-341.55
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:05am ET $360.23 30 $10,806.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET $367.89 30 $11,036.85 $11,193.49 +$230.10
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $370.70 30 $11,121.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:00pm ET $371.66 30 $11,149.80 $11,222.29 +$28.80
(+0.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $369.57 30 $11,086.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 30 $11,540.70 $11,676.04 +$453.75
(+4.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.7h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:40am ET $368.73 31 $11,430.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET $377.73 31 $11,709.78 $11,955.19 +$279.15
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:00am ET $391.62 30 $11,748.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $400.89 30 $12,026.70 $12,233.29 +$278.10
(+2.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET $414.36 29 $12,016.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $424.78 29 $12,318.62 $12,535.61 +$302.32
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:20am ET $419.52 29 $12,166.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET $428.24 29 $12,418.96 $12,788.49 +$252.88
(+2.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:45am ET $420.27 30 $12,608.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:45am ET $423.65 30 $12,709.65 $12,889.89 +$101.40
(+0.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET $424.58 30 $12,737.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $410.24 30 $12,307.20 $12,459.69 $-430.20
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
28 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 10:00am ET $412.13 30 $12,363.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 10:00am ET $410.40 30 $12,311.94 $12,407.73 $-51.96
(-0.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,407.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,407.73
Total Return: +24.08%
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